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Kona ratings report
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Not sure if this has been posted, but everyone should check out the Kona ratings report written by Thorsten Radde
https://gumroad.com/l/Kona2017
Awesome stats from previous years and predictions for this year. It's available free, but you can also pay for it if you like which I highly recommend doing. Some interesting stats:
Mens results 2016






Jan Frodenos race last year and his deficit during the race
Kienles race


Langes race


And Ryf




For 2017 he has compiled a list of 5 star athletes, partially with the help of pro triathletes. Frodeno is the only mens overall 5 star athlete, while there are a few swimmers, 1 biker and 2 runners




You will notice that Sanders is not on the bikers list, and I believe this is because of his inconsistency in Kona. He is also listed as having a predicted swim finish of 58 min which be far off after seeing the hola swim.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: Kona ratings report [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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LS's 52:37 for the swim this past Saturday was quick. Matt Russell was at a 53 and said that he was not going all out. Seems like the swim could have been a bit short.

BUT - If Sanders can pull off a time that leaves him less than four minutes off of the lead, and he deals with the heat well, this could become an interesting race.

Damn I wish I was there to see this all in person!

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New Training/Racing Log - http://www.earthdaykid.com/blog --- Old Training/Racing Log - http://colinlaughery.blogspot.com
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Re: Kona ratings report [colinlaughery] [ In reply to ]
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colinlaughery wrote:
Seems like the swim could have been a bit short.

this was discussed ad nauseam last year. the swim is likely CORRECT now, which means it's 100 or 200m shorter than it has been, historically. at least, that's what the veterans and experts seem to have agreed upon.
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Re: Kona ratings report [jkhayc] [ In reply to ]
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Not to mention other variables in the swim like sea conditions, waves seem to be growing could play a big role in the days ahead. Getting banged around by big waves is never fun, on the whole. Think of the sighting issues, getting sprayed in the face from wave, body parts flaying everywhere in a orgy of bodies.
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Re: Kona ratings report [andrewblerner] [ In reply to ]
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waves seem to be growing could play a big role in the days ahead.//

There are no waves on the Kona swim course, at least not in October. And it is a blue moon for their even to be white caps early in the morning when the swim takes place. There can be swell and currents, that is all that really affects times there.


And yes the swim is now 200 meters short of the historical course, starting last year. If you want to know how much that it, what do you do for 200m at the end of a long swim, easy. And this particular race the week before is a tiny bit shorter than race day because of the finish inside the pier and not outside.


But all that is just noise, the real delta to look at is what was the time from the leaders? 4 minutes is very good for Lionel and Matt, so a great sign going into the race on sat. There will be a couple small things that work against them on race day like number of possible feet to follow and a most likely increased pace of the leaders, but they are both where they want to be right now, a good spot..
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Re: Kona ratings report [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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Whiltshire is not a 5 Star despite being 1st out of the water last year? Also, no Wurf on the 5 star bike list?

Otherwise, interesting conversation compilation of stats.

Matt
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