Seriously with Frodo+Kienle+10 other guys already proven in Kona, Canada is well behind....all the guys you mention are unproven in Kona and I love them all, but you have to go with those who have proven themselves. I think Symonds however has a great shot as he is a proven performer in the the heat (Vegas 3rd in 2011, Whistler 2:40 run last year in 32-34C).

Dev

Seriously? You think three guys with little to no Kona experience will be a serious factor? I applaud you for pulling for you fellow Canadiens but not this year. Perhaps in years to come.

This year they'd be at least 4th behind the Germans, Australians and the Americans.

i agree on mostly all this. 3 amazing athlete but with no kona experience. it s a hard race on the island. it will be exciting to see them there but it s gonna be a first time.

Jeff does very well in the heat, that s a none issue. That said,. Whistler last year 2:40 was done in cool/moderate perfect condition. 11 degres in the morning, 18 degres avg , i keep my big sweater on most of the day while giving him split......

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Which Whistler were you at? I have the Garmin file with 35 C on the bike course...granted it reads road surface temp but still got reasonably hot. I'll give you that it started cool, but it got pretty hot at times and I love heat:

https://connect.garmin.com/activity/554672517


When Jeff would have been running it was still reasonably hot, but I agree it was shaded.


In any case, Jeff does well in the heat. I expect him to have a good run if he can be in striking distance off the bike. In Kona guys like Frommhold have many other guys of their caliber to bike with, so it changes the game for guys like Jeff. New pro rules will help though. In Melbourne the group Jeff was in was well stretched out and squeeky clean from what I saw on camera.

Dare I mention that frodo was a first time kona athlete last year.

Kienle was a first time athlete aND placed third that year I think. Crowie had a good showing his first year. Rinny Too.

Just because it's the First year, doesn't mean they can't be a factor. Heck, Chrissie won it on year first gO. But she is an extreme outlier

Given that Frodo has a South African accent, not a German one, we will just claim him. We'll ignore all that stuff about being born in Germany etc.

Then we just need Mat Trautman and Kyle Buckingham to step it up about 132% and we'll be in contention. Ok I'm back to watching the Cricket World Cup where we will at least probably win...

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I don't think jonnyo is saying they wont be factors but a top-5 or top-10 is a bunch different than the chest thumping many are doing.

Symmonds and McMahon have a really good shot a top-10, I'm just not sure if Sanders can live up to the hype. He's a beast no doubt, but beast's haven't done well in Kona since I've followed the sport.

I know Kona is still a long ways away and these guys aren't proven thats why I mentioned a German team, but I am not sure there are many other countries with 3 or 4 strong guys being mentioned besides those two. Aussies? Kiwis? What about woman's teams Could only score 2 there without 50 competitors.

+1

Germany has the depth. Aussies are the only ones even close.

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Wait till that kid Murray steps up from ITU to IM....and hope that the race has a sprint finish....also I thought Cunnama is South African too. I think one of the best South Africans in recent times in Kona was Tissink. Him and Macca had a good deal that year when they put the bike train "hurt" on Crowie!

As for the Cricket World Cup, I can only hope that it plays out how you are envisioning. Will make it rather festive in your home country next weekend and maybe a few fast 50-54 speed demon guys get too hung over partying post race to make it to KQ rolldown the next day!!!

U.S. has more than 2. Hoffman, Potts and T.O. come to mind rather easily (I know T.O. had a bad race last year, but....)

Depends how many athletes you are talking about. Germans are hands down favorites, they could(and have) get 5 or 6 guys in the top 10. US was 2nd or there a bouts with 2nd and 4th last year, with a few more to fill in for the 3rd spot(if 3 is what you are talking about) this year. Then the Aussies are always a threat, however most have passed their prime, or past podium finishers have had recent troubles.

I guess you could call Canada a dark horse as a team, but Hawaii has a way of foiling those that had stellar seasons. And isn't Ralert coming back this year too for the Germans, they could have 3 in the top 5, pretty hard to beat that..

Jonny, I think your memory is a bit hazy. You wore an orange T-shirt so you could, and I quote, "Look like Paulo!"

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what are you doing up right now???? and when are you back home?

and i never wanted to look like paulo....stop insulting me!

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Jonathan Caron / Professional Coach / ironman champions / age group world champions
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Answering facebook messages and emails. Plus it's one of those surreal weekends you just never want to end, so I am staying up as late as I can! Back in Canada on Thursday and Back to Penticton for Easter. We'll have to catch up!

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Awesome race, stayed up to the wee hours to watch you! Congratulations!!!

I was thinking the same thing...

Dare I mention that frodo was a first time kona athlete last year.

Kienle was a first time athlete aND placed third that year I think. Crowie had a good showing his first year. Rinny Too. //

Only problem is that all those you mentioned are still racing, only now with a lot more experience. You could actually say that many of the Germans are in their ironman primes even, with Ralert to join them with the most experience. No doubt that those guys should do well, probably not all at the same time, but someone should break through the top 10, maybe 5 even. I could even see 2 of them in the money, or close, but not ahead of the vast majority of Germans that have all either won, got 2nd, or top 5 usually..Too much talent and consistency to overcome by 3 newcomers.

Wasn't Kona Fodo's second IM? I'm not saying these guys are going to win or anything, but I think they will be a bigger factor than most are giving them. Especially Brent as he has the swim to be with the front group from the get go.

Wasn't Kona Fodo's second IM?//

I think so, but like i said, he will be there racing and taking up one of those coveted top 3 spots most likely. There is doing well in the race and there is beating the field, two entirely different things. It will all be relative too, time not a consideration, but place determining how well one did. Over the years the fields get soft and hard, we are in a period where the mens field is quite hard right now, so breaking through is not as easy as it was not that long ago..

Personal opinion but I think Frodo had a hard time last year, I saw him at the first two aid stations and he was running slowly, walking the aid stations…basically drinking everything he could get his hands on. Everyone was passing him. When I saw him at around 6 or 7km I thought his day was done, coming back at 13 or 14 km he was flying. Then he bounces back to a 2:47 and 3rd place.

I would say with the flat, the drafting call and going through that rough patch he will have learned a lot in his first "rookie" year, same with a lot of other guys. The Canadians who are all great athletes just haven't been in that situation yet.

Maurice

Frodo is also an Olympic gold medalist. If part of the reason newcomers don't do well at Kona is because of the sheer hype around the big spectacle of the race, that wouldn't apply to a guy with Frodo's history.

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Starky's due for a good Kona. (not sure if pink or not)

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We have seen others of his caliber not handle the race well.

I'm not saying the guys are not going to fumble, but it will be interesting to see. The competition is tough and it is a hard race. Anything can happen. But to discount some pretty good results because it is their first go wouldn't be entirely fair based off some past sucesses.

This is the fun part about sport. You get to speculate and make claims all day, but until the race or event actually takes place, no one has a clue what the actual outcome will be.