jimswim99 wrote:
I really think his swim is getting closer to the front than most realize. I'm going to surprised if he doesn't lead this race at the end of the day. I actually think the back half of the bike course will allow him to bridge toward the front and be within 2 minutes of the lead. My best guess is that we'll see some fireworks from Gomez and Lionel over the final 5k or so...
Firstly, there's no way I can add any comment to this thread without first noting what an incredible training day he put in, and how much I appreciate people being so open with their training.
That being said... he knocked out a 1:17 on his last hundred, and he was hurting. He probably gives up a lot on his walls, but chances are very good (if he's doing meters) that Gomez is going to finish that hundred in 1:00-1:03, because he has been 15:30 for a 1500.
With those sorts of training days, I'd bet on Lionel getting there sooner than anyone else thinks, but we can do the math (1900 meters for a half x 14-17 seconds per hundred... maybe ~9 -12 seconds when you account for the differences from the turns) and that's a whole bunch of time that he's going to have to make up. I bet he's going to be there in a year, and he's going to make some waves this year, especially with the number of people he'll pass on the run.