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It's time for your Kona picks
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The current pro start list is here: http://www.trirating.com/...-date-pro-startlist/

It's hard for me to bet against the status quo in the men's race: Jan (DNS 70.3 WC), Sebby, Andy Raelert (stress fracture May, 2016), Potts, McKenzie, O'Donnell. Very tough for me to pick a dark horse in this race....

I think the women's race may have more surprises in store. Obviously Ryf (overraced 2016?) and Rinny (contrary to popular belief I don't see her making the podium) will come in as favorites, but with plenty of women wearing higher bib numbers who could challenge: Hauschildt (fast!), Vesterby, Wurtele (unproven in Hawaii), Jackson, Luxford, Swallow.

Curious to hear everyone's picks.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [Timtek] [ In reply to ]
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Yeah Rinny really has no form this year. She doesn't stand a chance.
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [PubliusValerius] [ In reply to ]
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I saw Rinny absolutely flying past me at Timberman this year. Trust me, there is nothing wrong with her form. She will podium and school the nay-sayers at Kona.
Last edited by: Bubblehead: Sep 28, 16 17:39
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [Timtek] [ In reply to ]
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Potts! No gatorskins and looks on a mission. Rinny rebounds.
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [DDMike] [ In reply to ]
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Rhy and Potts. Rinny to podium
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [zedzded] [ In reply to ]
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Potts doesn't have the pure speed to compete with Frodeno. Maybe a podium but not the win.

Women's race depends on the gap to T2. In 2014, 14 minutes wasn't even enough........

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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japarker24 wrote:
Potts doesn't have the pure speed to compete with Frodeno. Maybe a podium but not the win.

Women's race depends on the gap to T2. In 2014, 14 minutes wasn't even enough........

Frodo is going to have a mechanical.
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [Timtek] [ In reply to ]
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Potts and T.O. Go 1&2 in the men's race

T.O.'s wife wins the women's race
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [B.McMaster] [ In reply to ]
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This isnt quite a prediction, but...I'm a bit curious how others see their chances: heather Jackson and Ben hoffman?
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [zedzded] [ In reply to ]
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zedzded wrote:
japarker24 wrote:
Potts doesn't have the pure speed to compete with Frodeno. Maybe a podium but not the win.

Women's race depends on the gap to T2. In 2014, 14 minutes wasn't even enough........

Frodo is going to have a mechanical.

Karma's a bitch.

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New Training/Racing Log - http://www.earthdaykid.com/blog --- Old Training/Racing Log - http://colinlaughery.blogspot.com
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [zedzded] [ In reply to ]
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zedzded wrote:
japarker24 wrote:
Potts doesn't have the pure speed to compete with Frodeno. Maybe a podium but not the win.

Women's race depends on the gap to T2. In 2014, 14 minutes wasn't even enough........

Frodo is going to have a mechanical.

2 times in 3 years?

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [Timtek] [ In reply to ]
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I'm going for Sebi to beat Jan in a semi-upset this year. Sebi to bridge up to the chase pack early, sit in and let Jan ride the front most of the bike, then stick it to him on the run and Jan crumbles in the heat.

On the womens I'm going for an upset as well, I say Hauschildt beats Rinny. The two going head to head in the marathon, Ryf finishing 3rd after being passed in the last 10k by the other two battling it out.
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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japarker24 wrote:
zedzded wrote:
japarker24 wrote:
Potts doesn't have the pure speed to compete with Frodeno. Maybe a podium but not the win.

Women's race depends on the gap to T2. In 2014, 14 minutes wasn't even enough........


Frodo is going to have a mechanical.


2 times in 3 years?

Yes unfortunately.
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [Timtek] [ In reply to ]
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I am thinking Kienle first, some dark horse second and Frodo third with Sanders fourth or fifth.

On the women's side I am figuring on an Ironwar late on the run between Ryf and Rinny with either Jackson or Wurtele to round out the podium.

A false humanity is used to impose its opposite, by people whose cruelty is equalled only by their arrogance
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [Timtek] [ In reply to ]
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I think Jesse Thomas is your dark horse. I know Frodo was feeling crappy during Lanzerote, but still.... JT is showing great promise at this distance, going 2 for 2 in very different conditions.

That being said, this is Kona... and it takes a special kind of athlete to win it. So that's why he'll be a wild card in my mind.
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [gantaliano] [ In reply to ]
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It would be nice to see Joe Skipper in the top 5, not sure how the heat will affect his performance though.
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [Timtek] [ In reply to ]
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1. Callum milward
2. Andrew starykowicz
3. Thomas gerlach
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [Timtek] [ In reply to ]
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My favorite time of the year :)

I think the men's race is going to be a war

1. Kienle
2. Potts
3. O'Donnell
4. Hoffman
5. Thomas

I think the top five will finish within a five minute time span.

I think Kienle will manage to make the first group on the swim and then, rather than making a break for it on the bike, he just hangs with whatever group forms at the front. I think Sebi will make a bit of a break at the end of the climb up to Hawi and then put a bit of distance between himself and the chase group on the descent (he seems to descend better than everyone else in the field)... try to put everyone else in a bit of pain but then let them catch up... maybe make a break in the last 10k going into T2. Sebi goes out conservatively on the run but Potts tries to run him down. About 10k in there's a 5 second gap and Sebi just does what he has to to maintain that to the end. Why bet on Sebi? He's raced well over the last year, he's arguably entering into the peak of his long-course career, he's improved his swim, and he has experience at Kona. Experience is often under-rated on the Big Island. Personally, I think Frodo will come off the bike near the front but will end up cramping or experiencing some sort of an injury on the run. Just a random gut feeling.

I think the Women's race will be strongly contested as well.

1. Carfrae
2. Jackson
3. Wurtele
4. Hauschdilt
5. Ryf

My theory is Carfrae and Jackson exit the water in the second pack and then stay somewhat near each other on the bike with HJ putting a minute or two into Rinny by the end. Wurtele and Ryf will be out of the water and off the bike near the front but for some reason I suspect Ryf will struggle on the run in a repeat of '14 but, this time, it won't just be Carfrae but also Jackson storming past her. I think Wurtele will have the lead with maybe 8k to go but ultimately succumb to Carfrae.

Here's my predicted men's winner for 2017: Javier Gomez
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [GreenPlease] [ In reply to ]
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If Heather Jackson only rides a minute or two faster than Rinny, she is way off the podium.

I think she (HJ) will smash the bike and run tough to finish second. Ryf has had one bad race since the beginning of 2015. She will win.

Same with Frodo. I want to believe in JT, but Frodeno will race too smart to lose. Draft off Potts and pass him in the last 50m so everyone knows who the champ is. Draft off the lead Moto until the train of Sebi, Thomas, Jordan, and hopefully (for the chasers) Lionel come by. Sit in behind JT because he has the biggest wake of that crew.

Then he will drop everyone in the first 10k and cruise to the finish.

The rest of the race is all about the swim. Heather W is my dark horse on the ladies side.

Thomas and Rapp should try to stay on Sebi's feet. Ironically the three of them benefit the most if Sanders doesn't swim like a nervous dentist. The 3 real triathletes bide their time and latch on to Lionel for a free ride to the front. If they catch Frodo by Hawi, it's going to be a fun race. If not, everyone just melts down and Frodo wins with some no-name French dudes filling out the podium.

If a big group starts the run together, the freshest legs will win. So not Sanders. Thomas and Sebi working together-ish may be able to break Frodo. They also may break themselves and open the door for someone else.

/kj

http://kjmcawesome.tumblr.com/
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [Timtek] [ In reply to ]
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I rekon Potts will hit the podium this year. Ill go with 1) Kienle 2) Frodeno 3) Potts...ladies ill go 1) Rinny 2) Ryf 3) Hauschuldt
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [Timtek] [ In reply to ]
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Frodo and Ryf again.

Massive scheduling error from WTC again. This is the same day as my other half's birthday and we are meant to be going out for dinner and drinks with friends. Luckily we are UK so 11 hours ahead. Best case I miss the first 6 hours. Worst case I miss the first 6 hours and fifteen minutes if she wants birthday nookie. She had better not be expecting an orgasm.
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [Timtek] [ In reply to ]
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Can't wait...

Men's... I'm going with a longshot podium, outside of Frodo

1. Frodo (he's just too freaking good)
2. Jesse Thomas (sentimental pick, I really like him)
3. Andy Potts (I think his window has closed on a win, but still may have a podium in him)

Women's...

1. Rinny (hope she pulls out another one but it will be tough for her)
2. Ryf (maybe her busy year and late IM keeps her form the top spot)
3. Jackson (I think third can end up being any number of women)
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [PBT_2009] [ In reply to ]
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Heather's had a great year with wins in Chattanooga, CdA, and Lake Placid and a strong showing in her first pro appearance in Kona last year.

This year The Hoff had a win at IM S. Africa and a 2nd at 70.3 Buenos Aires.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [Timtek] [ In reply to ]
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I think this will be the year an American wins. In order of likelyhood:

Potts
Hoffman
Tim O
Jesse Thomas


Rinny will run away with the women's title. Rhyf doesn't have much left in the tank.

blog
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Re: It's time for your Kona picks [GreenPlease] [ In reply to ]
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It's interesting you don't have Ryf or Frodo on the podium.

Rappstar did an interview on IMTalk and mentioned that Roth was essentially an add-on 140.6 race for both Jan and Daniela. One extra IM distance race on the body during the season if you will. It's been many weeks since I've been kicking around that theory in my head and it certainly seems like he made a valid point. He pointed to Jan's DNS at the 70.3 WC as an indicator that the season is different from his last.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram
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