As you know the Stelvio is a beast of a climb. When I was in the Dolomites in 2014 it was my worst day of the trip. I think it was our 5th or 6th day of riding and we did about 70-80k of warmup before we got there. Much profanity was used that day.

Surprisingly the next day when we did the Mortirolo and the Gavia back-to-back I felt amazing, especially on the Gavia. It may have had something to do with me wearing my Hampston inspired Team 7-Eleven jersey that day.

Stelvio is hell and heaven simultaneously. I just can't imagine how these guys are going to race up and down it twice with Mortirolo as a warmup, and cresting the final time 210 kilometers of riding into their day. This is beyond human. Dumoulin is going to need his full climbing game on to stay in contact to defend the Maglia Rosa in Milano.

By the way, it IS YOUR FAULT that I ended up doing Stelvio. After I stayed at your place at IM Texas 2015 and you told me all the legends about Stelvio and Gavia 2014, I figured, that I had to cram all that in before 70.3 World's. Honestly, the World's part of that trip is an afterthought now and melts into a lifetime of racing events.

It would be epic to climb Stelvio early morning on May 23rd this year and have front row seating to the racing in the Giro.

Make sure you tune into the livesteam on May 23rd from French TV. From what I understand you guys can get it in the US.

http://www.streaming-hub.com/lequipe-21-live/


Dev

bump... need to keep this up near the top as a reminder through next Monday, so I can plan ahead to watch it on Tues.

The current weather forecast for next Tuesday is a low of minus 3C and a high later in the day of 6c and sunny. The cool/cold forecast may favour a big man like Dumoulin who generates more top line watts and has more insulation for the descent. But as long as it does not rain, Quintana should be OK. I am thinking that someone like Zakarin will try to attack early to go for the stage win.

Book yourself a meeting in your calendar for May 23rd. I have a 9 am to noon EDT meeting with "myself", just so that I can keep track of the fireworks on Stelvio. I'm still available for anyone who needs me, but I don't want to be locked into something else and not being able to glance at the video in the corner of my screen!!!! The good news is that most of the key people I need to work with are west coast, so 9-noon EDT is normally local staff stuff anyway or it's 9 pm to 11 pm with guys in Asia....so my mornings are good!

How are you watching, assuming you are in the US?

Unfortunately I've got a long planned department townhall meeting that morning. Not too happy about it.

ironcode wrote:

How are you watching, assuming you are in the US?

I am in Canada and watching on the link below, but I believe it works in the US:

http://www.streaming-hub.com/lequipe-21-live/

This is live feed from France (L'Equipe)....French commentary with Stephen Roche doing colour (in French). Commentators are a bit French cyclist centric (so lots of "Pinot" analysis).

A group of us stayed in Bormio for a week last June - we travelled down in two vans stopping on the way to ride the Grand Ballon and enjoy a crazy night that included an indoor gocart track tacked on the side of a bar and pizza the basement of someone house.

The Stelvio and the Gavia are beasts but the Motirilo is the killer. We rode it both sides. Also drove down for a day of riding around lake Como which was nice. The weather was very mixed with the snow line dropping through the week. One lad almost got hypothermia riding the Bernina Pass.

It sounds obvious, but the last climb is going to be critical in this stage; that route up to Umbrailpass from Santa Maria starts with a steep section that's like hitting a brick wall and it carries on for a good 5 kms up through the forest. I think the attacks are going to start early and the time gaps could be massive. Also, that route down to the finish in Bormio is fast. There's only a few hairpins near the halfway-hotel and then again at the bottom, but for the most part it is full gas straight downhill descending. I cannot wait to see them bombing in and out of the tunnels down there.

Also, it should be noted that they're climbing the easy of the Mortirolo and not tackling what is arguably the hardest side of the Stelvio from Prato, but it'll be an epic stage nonetheless.

I was thinking that it is kind of weird that they are doing down the hardest most technical part of Stelvio. If I were to design the route, I'd have done the final "loop in a clockwise manner and have gone down the Umbrailpass the first time and then come back up Stelvio from Prato for the Cima Coppi. That desent down to Prato, you could actually make some decent time on a less technically good descender. I think Quintana, Pinot and Nibali are going to need to gap Dumoulin on the 2nd climb (Prima Coppi) and then go like madmen down to Prato (but I think Nibali will be less likely to take risk after the Olympics and crashing while in medal position), but nonetheless start early with the attacking. Nibali's going to be on top of his nutrition this time too. On Blockhaus he was bonking and needed to pull out a gel as he was on fumes. This stage is 229K with probably 5000m of climbing, so they are looking at probably 6.5-7 hours in the saddle

https://cyclingtips.com/...finish-giro-ditalia/
"After his final attack Quintana put in an effort of 368W (6.36 W/kg) for 6:40. This was after having ridden the previous 25 minutes at approximately 6 W/kg. Being able to lift the pace to accelerate for one minute at 430W (7.41 W/kg) in his final attack and then settle down to a hard tempo of 368W is a very impressive feat, and proved too much for anyone else in the Giro to handle."
"At the time when Quintana made his move with 5km to go, Dumoulin was also setting a high pace on the steep, 10% slopes. For 6:34, Dumoulin rode at an average of 441W (6.3 W/kg) with a peak one-minute effort at 561W (8.1 W/kg). His pacing was similar to that of Quintana which is why he was able to claw back some time after initially losing ground in the early attacks further down the mountain."
This is data from the 9th Stage climb up Blockhaus, Quintana rode away from his rivals and made it look easy, but Dumoulin was only 1/2 a minute behind
The ave. W/Kg are also close, Quintana 6.36 vs Dumoulin 6.3

I think Dumoulin has become an elite climber as well as a world class TTer
If Quintana wants a win he'll need to drive up the Stelvio and other mountains like there's no tomorrow.

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res, non verba

Blockhaus was a bit of a drag strip. Probably easier for Dumoulin to deal with than a bunch of switchbacks and pace changes. I'm rooting for him, but it's going to be a big ask for him to not lose 2-3 minutes (which means he will probably still win the Giro).

This type of stage is why cyclists still dope, and why all the sprinters are heading home tomorrow night. 229k and three hellish climbs. The organizers need a head check. If it was 180ish km it would still be a brilliant stage, and more humane.

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To make the stage human, it could have started in Bormio, gone up Stelvio but not the top and head down to Switzerland via the Umbrailpass (24xxm) and back around via Prato up Stelvio up to 2760m and then back down to Bormio. This is pretty well the "ultra route" out of Bormio for "tourist" cyclists!. That would have been fireworks all the way. Making this into a crazy Ironman caliber endurance exercise just pushes it over the top....and as you said, this is why you end up with doping because if just one guy is doped, then everyone is needing to do that keep up with the single doper. Hopefully the blood passport keeps all this in check

At this link you can find the link to the webcams at the summit of the Stelvio Pass:

http://www.stelvio.net/english/webcam/


As you can see the vicinity is covered with snow in all directions, but the road is clear.


Race day forecast is calling for a low of 1C and a high of 10C. Riders should be going over in the upper end of this range, since their summits will be mid/later afternoon European time

http://www.cyclingweekly.com/...#ewQ3oIlGeoDF92xi.99

Greipel is looking good for this classification

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res, non verba

Provided he does not abandon before that stage!!!

Knowing Quintana's style i dont think he will attack on the first climb, best point to attack or start any moves its in Glorenza, the start of teh final climb; he can make long attacks or just attack in the final 3 km. Considering he still have to descend 20 km after the final climb he needs to be very smart about whne exactly to attack and in which situation.

Add in their bike weights and I'll bet avg w/kg is even closer. And if Quintana doesn't take time on this day, there will be no tomorrow.

. I was thinking that if you add in bike weights, helmet, clothing, shoes, bottle, suddenly Dumoulin is higher watts per kilo. Maybe Quintana's 20 second watts per kilo is higher, but Dumoulin's 10 min watts per kilo may just be higher. At least the nature of the riding may suggest that, with Quintana able to make gaps but Dumoulin riding a high Wiggins style tempo at a higher 10 min power/weight than Quintana. Also their speeds while climbing can be pretty fast. Quintana standing up and attacking is pushing a ton of air. Dumoulin is punching a smaller wall of air. The only ones who seemed to really be able to compete using the standing attacking style in recent years were all heavily enhanced: Pantani-Lance-Contador. When you are juiced to the high 6 W per kilo range (bordering on 7), its another game altogether.

I think you're right about Dumoulin having a higher avg. w/kg fully loaded. I think you're also right the seated vs. standing climbing being more aero for the larger Dumoulin. I'd always heard that standing was less efficient for bigger guys. I'm not that tall, but I only stand to stretch a bit.

I think the only way Quintana gets away is he jumps with Nibali, Zakarin and Pinot and the three of them TTT up Stelvio basically doing less watts per kilo individually than Dumoulin solo, but going faster. Honestly, the south side of Stelvio is not really that steep, so it favors Dumoulin who probably has a higher sustained full loaded watts per kilo. If these three can make a gap, on the north side of Stelvio, the switchbacks are tight and steep and that favors smaller riders who have less weight pulling them out of switchbacks. There are a few grades early in the climb that get steeper if I recall correctly...checking the profile, my memory is correct (see below)....the rest is tough for tourists like us, but for these protour guys, no problem



one more question....as they get past 7000 ft up closing in on 9000 ft, I don't know if the lack of oxygen proportionally favors the smaller rider. If evolution has any bearing, all the settlers of high altitude zones are tiny, so if there is any link, then Quintana should hold an advantage over the flatlander from Holland.

FatandSlow wrote:

I think you're right about Dumoulin having a higher avg. w/kg fully loaded. I think you're also right the seated vs. standing climbing being more aero for the larger Dumoulin. I'd always heard that standing was less efficient for bigger guys. I'm not that tall, but I only stand to stretch a bit.

OK, one more sleep till "showtime"

1. Who wins this year's Cima Coppi to the top of Stelvio?
2. Does Quintana's watts per kilo deteriorate less above 8000 ft than Dumoulin's?
3. Will Nibali attack the descent to Prato like his is a TGV on rails ?
4. Will it snow on race day (current forecast is clear and high of 5C the the summit)
5. Does the cool temp favor Dumoulin?
6. Will any crazy guys attack on Mortirolo and try to get away for the stage win (I am looking at Roland and team Cannondale)?

Link to weather forecast:


https://www.dolomitimeteo.it/...passo-dello-stelvio/

Please....no crashes. That descent from Stelvio to Prato is trecherous on a good day. I hope there is no snow melt that freezes over on the pavement. I'd be really worried about that.

OneGoodLeg wrote:

bump... need to keep this up near the top as a reminder through next Monday, so I can plan ahead to watch it on Tues.

The show is on. Peloton has already rolled over Mortirolo and pulled into Bormio. In the next hour they are hitting the Stelvio climb.

Don't forget the livestream (thanks Trail):

http://www.streaming-hub.com/lequipe-21-live/


119K in the legs already, 100K to go. Looks like a beautiful sunny day in the Dolomites. Clear views of all the peaks.

Dumoulin and Quintana each look like they have three teammates in the front group. Funny seeing the black and white of Sunweb leading. I'm used to seeing hues of blue (Movistar or Sky). Wonder if Mollema will work with Sunweb to help the Dutch cause.