My opinion…run 10-15 seconds slower than average pace in the first 5-10km then feel it out.

Ironman probably has the largest ratio of not executing to potential out of any event (say OLY, HIM, pure marathon, 10 km etc) if you blow up you're walking, lots of folks talk about "over biking" which is a real issue, just as big IMO is over running in the first 10km to half.

IIRC Carefree, and Van lierde even split last year. This year Symonds even split (edit whistler) 2:40…..without a watch.

Maurice

I wish I could help. I'm 9 Ironmans in and still trying to figure it out.

If you manage to control the bike guaranteed you will be jacked starting the run. With your 3:22 mary time you are probably looking, at best, at a 3:55 IM mary which is 8:58/mile pace. If you watched Kona you would have noticed Kienle jogged the aid stations.

I would recommend you jog/walk them to settle into your race pace at least for the first half and even up to mile 20. For example, if you run to the first aid station at mile X and are 30' ahead of race pace, walk/eat/drink through the aid station until you fall back to your race pace.

After that, depending on how you are feeling, let 'er rip!!!

That's why I'm asking questions. My wife has been awesome and very supportive, but I don't think I am going to get 9 times to figure it out, lol.

Best I can say is slow down, way down. Within 10s of your realistic target. Then just lock in and hold that.

If you are well trained, taper well and ride smart, you WILL want to go too fast. I was so jacked up and excited, I think I rolled a 19xx 5k out of the gate. I was even trying to ease off, but 40s faster than my target felt easy.

You wont regret going slow out of t2. Yes youll get oassed. I cant believe how many guys were matching my pace on my 2nd lap. Guys in the 4+ range running 330 pace. I gurantee they were soon walking.

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TrainingBible Coaching
http://www.trainingbible.com

After which one of those marathons (the ones it took for you to figure out that you could not put "time in the bank") did you sit down and say to yourself..."Damn, if only I'd warmed up with a 2.4 mile swim and 112 mile bike, my marathon pacing strategy would have totally worked!"

Listen to Bob Babbitt's interview with Jim Curl on the Babbittville podcast. If I recall correctly Curl goes out to Kona each year and takes the pro splits at mile 1 of the marathon and then compares that data to their overall finish time. During the podcast they were discussing the 2013 data. He said something like for the top 3 men and women their mile 1 split was anywhere from 20-30 seconds SLOWER than their than their overall marathon pace. However, those that got off the bike at roughly the same time that blew up all had significantly faster first mile splits. Lesson: take that first mile much slower than your overall goal pace.

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"Unless you have a ... GF who might put out that night and that night only ... skip it and race." - AndyPants 3-15-2007

I searched for the Bob Babbitt interview with Jim Curl and found one with coach Jim Vance with first mile run split data vs overall pace. The message was to take it easy early, but the data showed that the best times were from those that ran within 20 seconds, plus or minus of their overall pace in mile one. Both Van Lierde and Carfrae ran 20 seconds FASTER in mile one vs their overall paces. I also read an article by coach Jesse Kropelnicki that recommends running 30 seconds FASTER than overall goal pace and drift no mare than one minute to the last mile. I think I will go with triordie1994's advise and walk, eat, drink through the aid stations to fall back into pace if necessary. It seems to take more energy to run slower than what is comfortable as if running with the brakes on. Thank you all for your input!

I had my best IM marathon at IM Canada one year where I ran the first couple of miles very easy, which turned out to be the correct pace, I think my run time was around 30th overall and I think I negative split due to headwind on way out, felt good most of the way and held back until halfway. I was amazed at the people blowing by me in first couple of miles, looking at 1 mile split you had people running up to 90 seconds faster then me and ended up running way slower then me.

To prepare this way I ended my long run at track and immediately ran at goal pace, its amazing how easy this felt, when you get in race just just dial in this feeling (this was pre garmin).

I ran a 3:50 at IMLP in '07. I planned to check out my splits to see if I slowed down, but http://www.ironman.com/...y=2007#axzz3I178nZsJ is broken.

Here is how I ran it:

1. Got rid of my sea/bike legs in mile 1.
2. Hit the port-a-potty and glad that my kidneys were working after 7 hours of no evacuation.
3. Walk and grab coke nutrition and sponges.
4. Evaluate to see if I could make it another mile running
5. At the end of the aid station start running.
6. NEVER walk between aid stations
7. Repeat steps 3 through 6

Step 6 is key. Once you start walking in no mans land your chance of a goal run time is out the window.

Before this IM I had at best slightly slower finishes than your 3:22, but I did run a 3:16 three months after LP.

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Swim - Bike - Run the rest is just clothing changes.

I think the key thing is to have a really open mind about how your marathon is going to go. By all means have a goal, but don't get too hung up on a specific plan and be prepared to adapt on the day. Running a marathon after that swim and bike (not to mention tapering, race day adrenaline and everything else that goes into the mix) for the first time is simply a bit of an unknown, it hits everybody differently.

I would say that a bit of slowing down is normal and not something to worry about, particularly for AGers who have been out on the roads for 10+ hours by the time they're getting to the closing stages of the marathon. So a well-paced marathon for most people probably does mean going 5 minutes slower in the second half. But if thinking that way means that you try to "bank" some time in the first half and you go out too hard, then you're going to end up in trouble. Ease your way into it, if in doubt back off. Very few people finish an IM saying "I wish I'd gone harder in the first half of the run". An awful lot of people limp over the line saying "I ran the first half too hard" and/or "I biked too hard".

Lots of good advice about pacing the bike and early part of the run sloow.

Should you mess up your pacing, however, don't despair. This is not as tragic as it would be in a marathon or shorter race.
A badly paced Ironman is probably only 20 minutes slower than a very well paced one. Pacing an Ironman well is not that easy to do. Most of your competitors will also mess it up.

Here's one anecdote from a one-time IMer.

I ran the IM marathon in 3:45 (about an 8:35 min/mile avg pace). I had done a few bricks like you described at about the pace you described (though my open marathon PR from several year prior was around 3 flat (on a fast course in perfect conditions)).

So, in the IM, when I got off the bike and started running, I forced myself, as I had planned, to stick close to 8:45-9:00 min/mile pace. Right off the bike especially, and for a few miles, the pace felt IMPOSSIBLY slow. So slow that, had I not had a watch on I would've guessed I was running around a 12 min/mile pace. It felt so slow that, even in my state of post-swim post-bike fatigue, I thought there was just no way I wouldn't be able to hold that pace.

I no longer felt this way around mile 16 :) Again, had I not had a watch I would've guessed I had sped up a lot from the start of the race. But I had been running pretty evenly. It was around then that I started to push it a bit more, but nowhere near the push I was tempted to give within the first 10 miles.

Another benefit of running this way is, from miles 16-26 I passed hundreds of people. Now, this was perhaps partly due to the fact that I started the run a bit behind where I maybe should have given that my biking is relatively poor :), but also because many people fall apart on their run, part of which has to be attributed to starting far too fast.

Now, given how the marathon turned out for me it seems I should have pushed it a bit harder---maybe 10 or 15 s per mile---at the start. But that would've improved my run time by <10 minutes. As it was, I had a good, challenging fairly even run, and finished the IM racing hard, rather than stumbling.

So I say you start conservatively, see how you feel with 10 miles left. If you feel great, that's still a considerable distance to push the pace and save a few minutes. But I'm pretty sure you won't feel great. :)

Best of luck

I also agree you should force yourself to run slowly at the start. My fastest marathon (two years ago) was a 3:27, and I just did my first 140.6 at Beach2Battleship a week ago so I was pretty much in the same boat as you are. I ran a 3:43 with a negative split of a bit over 2 minutes. Starting out trying to hold back was very tough - as other people have said, it felt impossibly slow when factoring in how jacked up I was to get out and run. It was a fantastic choice to keep slowing myself down. I ended up splitting 23 of the 26 miles within 30 seconds over each other. One mile was slower with a 90 second bathroom break, and my last 2 miles were my fastest of the race. I seriously doubt you'll regret it if you hold back at the beginning.