what are the chances registration will be still open a month from now never mind May 1/2016?

Probably something that's getting standardized throughout the IM events even though some venues (like Lake Placid) will certainly sell out before dates hit the other tier levels. Although, IM has added a few races and the instant fever of grabbing coveted spots is not quite so critical anymore.

Yes, it's just another tactic to get people's money out of their pocket and to the race organiser as fast as possible. There's no value judgement attached to that, it's good business sense. And just because the organiser puts an early bird offer on doesn't mean to say it won't sell out prior to the price increases.

Early bird or tiered pricing has been around in Europe and NZ (maybe Aus) for while now, so it might be standardisation thing.

As to your other point, I don't see races selling out as fast as they used to either - IM Melbourne is still open and that's previously been a quick seller, and IMUK used to sell in hours and nowadays it's still got slots months after opening day. One of my favourite LD triathlon in the UK used to sell in minutes but now it's more like weeks or months. Probably supply is coming close to demand, but surely the drop off can't be too far around the corner (he says for the third year in a row).

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Swim. Overbike. Walk.

Is this the first with tiered pricing?

No IMTX has the same thing.

Even Coeur D'Alene had it as well - and if you purchased both entries at the Tier 1 pricing - it was the same as the combo deal that they offer for some races (70.3 and full IM).

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"It's a line you have to cross to understand."