If you can go easy for a 5:30-6:00 at Kona you will be fine with a 34/28. With the 34 you could probably get by with a 25 on the back. It was windy in 2014 and it's not really that bad a climb to Hawi. The worst climb is the short steep one out of the harbor coming back but it's probably only a 1/2 mile.

Go with the 404 up front.

I did an aero road helmet - LG Course. I don't like having a helmet over my ears.

I went on lottery as well and wanted to take it easy. I used a 50/34 and 11-28 and felt it fine. Would use that combo again if given the chance. For wheels I used my 303's and was very happy with them. I was 154 at 5'9 on race day.

Enjoy the day (and the week)!

I rode my Giro Advantage 2 as always. I don;t thin the helmet makes any difference. Its' just mental. I believe there was testing that showed no change in core temp. It's not a limiter if it has adequate ventilation. IT also block more sun due to it's size, which might be better than more airflow really.

My tips:

1) Get a sleeved trisuit. Not having direct sun exposure really helps.
2) With 11 speed or even 10 speed, I think 11-28 works great for almost everything. With headwinds, some climbs will be slow for smaller, less powerful athletes, especially late in the afternoon for women riding slower than 5:30. I'v never heard anyone complain that they had too much gearing. Meaning the slightly wider spaces were a major problem.
3) Wheel choice is personal preference in your comfort factor in gusty winds at speeds over 30mph. 404/808 might be a safer bet and really won't make a lot of difference in speed. But honestly, the descents are that steep out on the queen K. I think I only hit 38mph. The downhills in town were faster, and each had a turn at the bottom and more traffic, but not much wind.

Enjoy it. Great experience! erlly cool finally seeing all thsoe locations yoe see on TV and getting a sense of the weather.

It's hot! Really hot! Plan to dump a lot of water on yourself. Fishing over 11 hours might be good as 1/2 your run will be past the peak heat of the day and peak sun and when partial cloud cover usually emerges.

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I am not a big fan of riding deeps wheels in Kona. You can get lucky and have a decent day, but if it is windy, they are quite a bit of work.

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I say based on this, I would work on your swim. Something isn't adding up or your swim is 2+ hours.

Swim will likely be ~ 1:10- 1:20

With transitions, and variability of the marathon/bike times and trying to "enjoy the experience" and not get caught up in crushing myself for a time goal or risking my ability to finish

I have a goal time of 12-13 hours to allow myself not to get frustrated by how the day unfolds (heat, wind etc)

if i go under 12 hours , ill feel awesome..

I'm the same weight as you and rode a FLO 60/90 Alum setup last year. I didn't think the cross winds were an issue at all. The wind in your face climbing to Hawi kinda sucks, but I was fine with my gearing (53/39 and 11-25).

I would err on the side of being cooler with your helmet selection. Kona is the only time I've ever gotten hot on the bike. Around mile 90 the lava fields don't seem so scenic.

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congrats on getting a slot

I ride a 54 Oval ring with 11-23 cassette
Go with 808/404. I've used 808/808 before but the speed gain is not worth the potential battle if the wind picks up
Giro Selector is fine, even in 2015 it was much hotter than usual and a non-vented helmet was not an issue

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I think 34/28 is silly if you can ride 5:30 to 6. As someone living in the mountains I am tempted to say Kona is flat. ;-) But even if you count the climb to Hawi as a hill, there is no way you need that gear. 39-25 should be easy enough.

50-11 and you will not be pushing much from Hawi to Kawaihae.

Don´t use too deep wheels (as everybody stated before).

Yes, it can get hot out there. If you use an aero helmet make sure it has some holes to get water through to your head.