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ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur
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With ITU Leeds coming up this coming Sunday it's about time to pick favorites.

On the men's side we have Richard Varga returning to stretch out the swim. Closely behind him we ought to see Alistair, Jonny, Aaron Royle, Aurelien Raphael, Henri Schoeman and Vincent Luis. Those six ought to all make the front break away up the initial incline. Javier is not at Leeds this year and Varga will likely be still in recovery mode from Samorin so I'd expect only those six in the group that really gets away. Once they're off on the run I'm picking Jonny, Henri and Vincent for the top three. That is unless Alistair was playing opossum at Samorin . The temperatures are forecast to be in the low 60s*F with partly cloudy skies so no problems with heat exhaustion for the day.

On the women's side Flora looks totally unbeatable after her performance here and everywhere else last year combined with the clinic she put on at Yokohama this year. I was hoping to see Sophie Coldwell race again after her uber impressive Yokohama bike ride and am sad to not see her on the list. We ought to see Jessica Learmonth, and Lucy Hall up at the front of the swim along with Summer Cook and Flora with Jessica and Lucy but not Summer making it up that first hill as a threesome. Vicky Holland and Jodie Stimpson are absent from the roster but Ashleigh Gentle and Non Stanford will go hard on the bike and run looking for points. The main USA powerhouse girls as well as series leader Andrea Hewitt are not racing Leeds so after Flora In first place the next few are a bit of a toss up.

I'm calling Duffy, Stanford then Gentle for the podium.


Who are you all betting on?

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
Last edited by: sciguy: Jun 6, 17 6:32
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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I think you mean Non Stanford :)

The battle between the Brownlees and the Spaniards last year was absolutely epic; Alistair drilling the pace on the bike to drop Gomez and then dropping off the front himself to pick up Johnny and tow him back to the front with Gomez dangling tantalizingly close behind was just amazing to watch.

So, it's disappointing to see that neither Javier nor Mola are racing this year, do they have any particular reason? I may be way off base here, but if they're just skipping it because they don't like the course and/or know that the Brownlees are going to be showing up to their home race in tip-top-form (as was the plan, anyway) then it doesn't really promote the sport.

The Men's race will certainly be interesting, goodness knows what state Alistair will be in and we've not really seen anything of Johnny since his late start to the season and DNF in Yokohama. I wouldn't be surprised if neither make the podium.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [awenborn] [ In reply to ]
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awenborn wrote:
and we've not really seen anything of Johnny since his late start to the season and DNF in Yokohama. I wouldn't be surprised if neither make the podium.

JB was crashed out of Yokohama near the end of the bike but ran his bike into T2 and still ran a 32mid to finish 42nd.

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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [jkhayc] [ In reply to ]
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Ahhh, interesting. I just guessed that he DNF'd after his crash, but yeah that's a decent run for someone out-of-contention so perhaps he is carrying some good form.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [awenborn] [ In reply to ]
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awenborn wrote:
I think you mean Non Stanford :)


Oops thanks

awenborn wrote:

So, it's disappointing to see that neither Javier nor Mola are racing this year, do they have any particular reason? I may be way off base here, but if they're just skipping it because they don't like the course and/or know that the Brownlees are going to be showing up to their home race in tip-top-form (as was the plan, anyway) then it doesn't really promote the sport.


Both Javier and Mario have 3 decent scoring races already so I'm not that surprised they would take a pass on this one. It does suit the Brownlees very well so why bang their heads on the wall in such a setting. Last year the lead moto stayed very close to the front group for the first couple of laps in both the women's as well as men's race. Javier and Richard Varga dangled valiantly off in space with a moto behind them for a long time but didn't have the horsepower to catch the well organized and perhaps moto advantaged lead group. I'm expecting JB to be in great form and AB to work his butt off to help his brother come to the run up front.

The longitude and time of day for the race works out well for the east coast of the USA. After getting up at 2:50am to watch all of Challenge Samorin in real time, this one will be a lot easier to watch as it happens.

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
Last edited by: sciguy: Jun 6, 17 7:12
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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Leeds weather is like Bergen weather. Blummenfelt will go top 3.


Member of Valhalla Racing Team
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Halvard] [ In reply to ]
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Halvard wrote:
Leeds weather is like Bergen weather. Blummenfelt will go top 3.

Halvard,

I was thinking about that possibility. It's too bad he's not just a bit faster swimmer to hop right on that front group from the get go.

Hugh

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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If Leeds is AB's only ITU race of the year, is his role to be as domestique for Jonny?

I know he is ultra-competitive and so it may not be in his personality to not give it his all and go for the win.

In any event, my picks are - 1. Jonny, 2. Alistair, and 3. Vincent.

Tougher call in the women's race, but I would guess - 1. Duffy, 2. Stanford, and 3. Van Coevorden.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Apollo71] [ In reply to ]
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Apollo71 wrote:
If Leeds is AB's only ITU race of the year, is his role to be as domestique for Jonny?

I know he is ultra-competitive and so it may not be in his personality to not give it his all and go for the win.
.

After his meltdown at Samorin he may be looking for a bit of validation at the "home race". I also expect he'll do his best to help Jonnny get some much needed points since this and all future races must count for the series year end total. It's a tough position to be at the 4th race in with a zero point total when you're gunning for the series win.

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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Unless AB gets a massive lead on the bike I see him dropping back once they start the run. He was suggesting that he has lost some of his run sharpness and something wasn't right last week so JB to win this one with AB towing him to T2.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [newManUK] [ In reply to ]
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Jon B.
Henri
Ali B.

Doubt that this year Lucy and Jessica will be told to not help Flora - Alice Betto may also make the Flora / Lucy / Jessica early break and only adds more bike power to that group - hopefully they can hang with Flora during the technical bits and gain at least 2:15 on Non and Ashleigh, if they do:

Flora
Jessica
Lucy

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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Scotttriguy] [ In reply to ]
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Sorry as this post was on the 4th page I've gone and done my own duplicate thread, thanks for whoever it was who politely pointed me in this direction.

The field is weakest it's been yet Ali is still only turning up to domestic his brother? I think Jonny wins this even if Ali hadn't have DNF at the weekend, it seems he won't get any credit for it though.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [awenborn] [ In reply to ]
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awenborn wrote:
I think you mean Non Stanford :)

So, it's disappointing to see that neither Javier nor Mola are racing this year, do they have any particular reason? I may be way off base here, but if they're just skipping it because they don't like the course and/or know that the Brownlees are going to be showing up to their home race in tip-top-form (as was the plan, anyway) then it doesn't really promote the sport.
.

I think there is more to it than this, along with lots of the top guys, many of the top women are also out. Maybe it is a mid season tune up, maybe something political, I would like to know though, but no one has made any type of statement either way.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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I'm picking AB to win. I don't put much stock into last week's meltdown. Ended up just being a training day for him IMO. I def. see it coming down to a run vs. his brother.

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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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As you mentioned on the other thread, It would be interesting to see Taylor Knibb off with Flora, Jessica and and Vicky as she ran cross country and track with Cornell this past fall and winter but I don't think her swim is speedy enough yet to get her on the early train. Too bad Sophie Coldwell isn't racing as she'd help to make the front bunch really fly.

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Timtek] [ In reply to ]
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Timtek wrote:
I'm picking AB to win. I don't put much stock into last week's meltdown. Ended up just being a training day for him IMO. I def. see it coming down to a run vs. his brother.

I'll make an equally predictable statement - The sun will rise in the East.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [B.McMaster] [ In reply to ]
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B.McMaster wrote:
Timtek wrote:
I'm picking AB to win. I don't put much stock into last week's meltdown. Ended up just being a training day for him IMO. I def. see it coming down to a run vs. his brother.

I'll make an equally predictable statement - The sun will rise in the East.

Do you think he was just playing opossum at Samorin saving himself for Leeds?

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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Perhaps trying to adjust the Vegas odds on this race.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [B.McMaster] [ In reply to ]
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B.McMaster wrote:
Perhaps trying to adjust the Vegas odds on this race.

Well it certainly does make it a lot more fun to speculate the outcome. If he'd absolutely crushed the field at Samorin I think everyone would be looking for him to do it again at Leeds.

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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It will be interesting to see what happens the men's swim. Richard Varga showed how easily he could drop everyone at Samorin and since he's no longer training with the Brownlees he might not be so inclined to keep the swim pace rich but not too rich. He may still be feeling some after affects of that race as he actually finished the run with good effort. I can't see Raphael or Royal stretching things out like Richie and don't expect a Brownlee wanting to lead the swim.

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [B.McMaster] [ In reply to ]
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B.McMaster wrote:
Timtek wrote:
I'm picking AB to win. I don't put much stock into last week's meltdown. Ended up just being a training day for him IMO. I def. see it coming down to a run vs. his brother.


I'll make an equally predictable statement - The sun will rise in the East.

Since Leeds is below 66.33 degrees North where there is 24 hours day now, I think this is a fair statement. there will be a sunrise, and AB on a home course with the set up cooked in his favor is going to win.

Sciguy, what's the instructions to the motoman....pull the lead swim pack or stay out of the way?
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
B.McMaster wrote:
Timtek wrote:
I'm picking AB to win. I don't put much stock into last week's meltdown. Ended up just being a training day for him IMO. I def. see it coming down to a run vs. his brother.


I'll make an equally predictable statement - The sun will rise in the East.


Since Leeds is below 66.33 degrees North where there is 24 hours day now, I think this is a fair statement. there will be a sunrise, and AB on a home course with the set up cooked in his favor is going to win.

Sciguy, what's the instructions to the motoman....pull the lead swim pack or stay out of the way?


I'm betting it's get lots of good close ups like this from last year;)



Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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sciguy wrote:
devashish_paul wrote:
B.McMaster wrote:
Timtek wrote:
I'm picking AB to win. I don't put much stock into last week's meltdown. Ended up just being a training day for him IMO. I def. see it coming down to a run vs. his brother.


I'll make an equally predictable statement - The sun will rise in the East.


Since Leeds is below 66.33 degrees North where there is 24 hours day now, I think this is a fair statement. there will be a sunrise, and AB on a home course with the set up cooked in his favor is going to win.

Sciguy, what's the instructions to the motoman....pull the lead swim pack or stay out of the way?


I'm betting it's get lots of good close ups like this from last year;)

In fairness this could be from a fair distance away with the zoom but kind of does not look great on the fairness front, great on the coverage front....see my comment on the other thread....ideally you have a camera that can show where the moto is in relation to the riders!
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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sciguy wrote:
It will be interesting to see what happens the men's swim. Richard Varga showed how easily he could drop everyone at Samorin and since he's no longer training with the Brownlees he might not be so inclined to keep the swim pace rich but not too rich. He may still be feeling some after affects of that race as he actually finished the run with good effort. I can't see Raphael or Royal stretching things out like Richie and don't expect a Brownlee wanting to lead the swim.

Jonny did in the last race.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Jackets wrote:
sciguy wrote:
It will be interesting to see what happens the men's swim. Richard Varga showed how easily he could drop everyone at Samorin and since he's no longer training with the Brownlees he might not be so inclined to keep the swim pace rich but not too rich. He may still be feeling some after affects of that race as he actually finished the run with good effort. I can't see Raphael or Royal stretching things out like Richie and don't expect a Brownlee wanting to lead the swim.

Jonny did in the last race.

Yes, I saw that but he didn't stretch the field out at all compared to the amount Varga usually does. It was the very first time I've seen a Brownlee lead a swim. I'd think he'll want to save his legs for the initial burst they'll want to get away. As it was last year he couldn't match the front three up the hill.

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
Last edited by: sciguy: Jun 8, 17 8:20
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