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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [r0bh] [ In reply to ]
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I'm sure he also had Leeds in the back of his mind at Challenge 70.3 and knew exactly when to pull the plug not to affect his race in Yorkshire. That was my hunch and why I picked him for the W at the Olympic distance event yesterday.

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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
Would it not be more like, "he made the standard age grouper mistake of overbiking and under nourishing on a hot day, realized on the run he was going to pay the price and move backwards, maybe not get a payday and impact the day in Leeds and thus pulled the plug".


He claimed he had no legs, but it seems like he just overbiked and blamed it on his legs rather than his own brain/execution. Awesome race in Leeds, but you can't quite use the same tactics at half IM. He just needs to tone it down a touch. He likely got away wiith overbiking in St. George. It seems doubtful that he had more legs to give on the run. But as Monty said, the run split of the race winner is irrelevant when they win.

Please tell me what I bolded you meant that to be pink. I know its not a direct comparison, but it sure reads like you are comparing him to an age grouper.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [splashrunner] [ In reply to ]
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What type of scholarships and what are the requirements per the scholarships? As I stated to Slowman earlier. The issue for American males is the requirements that are with said D1 single sport scholarship. The demands from the coach/peers/uni make it all but impossible *so far* for top male junior triathletes to take the paid money for uni and train respectfully for tri. Which hey I get it...the school is paying you to represent them to run or swim, and so if they tire of your tri training and "missing" workouts, well they can pretty much say it's "this way or the highway". That's their right by giving money to the athlete. But I have a hard time believing that these other worldly pros are put with these type of restrictions in regards to their training as the US system is with lack of triathlon ncaa status (and likely never for males in US).

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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B_Doughtie wrote:
The issue for American males is the requirements that are with said D1 single sport scholarship.

well, and the demands of college. if you go back a generation or two, we had some boy wonders go right to pro: lance, spencer smith, simon lessing, miles stewart. but that was rare. still, they could hit the ground running, financially, from high school, in triathlon.

not so the women.

and i don't think that has much changed. taking taylor knibb as an example, if she was a he, and he was a european, i think he'd be a full time pro earning a full time living. but taylor is, last i heard (and notwithstanding her race this past weekend in leeds) a student at cornell and racing xc and (i presume) track.

this will serve taylor well, as a woman, because if taylor was a european she'd probably not be earning as much as a male who'd won junior worlds as taylor did. so, taylor can rest in the luxury of knowing the european women who're 20 years old aren't going to get that far ahead of her during her 4 years of college, racing as a runner but moonlighting as an occasional triathlete.

but you take the american men who did well as juniors, stephen duplinsky, tony, lukas, kevin mcdowell, and every male before them including hunter kemper, they seem to have a harder time making up for those lost years.

we do pluck male runner/swimmers out of college, matt mcelroy, and i have hopes for andy truard when and if he decides to emerge as a pure triathlete (4-flat miler this year at NAU, high school swim state champion). but the men seem to lose a lot by not racing as full time pro triathletes from the age of 20.

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Dan,

So what's interesting is that US juniors have a very good cast of athletes who went the "full time pro" route now the past 2 years (some may have part time studies as well). Eli Hemming, Seth Rider, Alec Wilimovsky. All went into full time daily training groups and are racing in Europe this summer for an extended period. Ben Kanute went the route of "full time pro" + "full time" student and made the olympic team at an age before even any of the D1 athletes usually come back into triathlon. Now looking at Ben, what allowed him to do that? Family wealth? Sponsor support? Lack of D1 scholarship offers (i have no clue to that specifics)...i do know that Ben has always loved triathlon and wanted to stay in the sport much more than going single sport.

Also when you say hit the ground running financially, how were they doing it "back in the day"? Living 7 together in a 2 bedroom house, eating ramon noodles and spam every day? I just have a hard time seeing how these 19 year old pros live and make enough money to simply cover their rent....rich parents? Sponsors?

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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B_Doughtie wrote:
Also when you say hit the ground running financially, how were they doing it "back in the day"? Living 7 together in a 2 bedroom house, eating ramon noodles and spam every day?

we had money in tri in the 80s. bud lite, nike, lots of interest. the big money dried up right as the 80s ended, the non endemic money, but there was still money into the mid 90s. by then those guys were well launched.

the only way you're going to get good and stay good is if you LIVE in a training enclave. i really don't think it's matters as much who your coach is (as long as he or she knows what he or she is doing), or what your coaching regime, just that you get up, train, go to sleep in your enclave.

so when you say 7 living together in a 2 bedroom house, that's not really all that bad. as long as they're not drinking too much, and just training together every day, that - and not having to go to school - is a pretty good way to get faster.

the reason school works for single sporters is that the sport takes precedence. if you're a runner at oregon you're a professional runner with a part time job as a student. that's why i always recommend that good athletes do NOT go to a hard charging D1 program. assuming taylor knibb is still at cornell, i think that's a much better place for her than, say, stanford.

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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Now looking at Ben, what allowed him to do that? Family wealth? Sponsor support? Lack of D1 scholarship offers (i have no clue to that specifics)..//

Being born in the US at this time in history is the real answer. IF he were British/Spanish/French/Russian and several other countries, he would not have been an Olympian. Eric the eel was an olympian, born in the right country at the right time, but this doesn't do anything to further or hinder Dans argument..
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
Now looking at Ben, what allowed him to do that? Family wealth? Sponsor support? Lack of D1 scholarship offers (i have no clue to that specifics)..//

Being born in the US at this time in history is the real answer. IF he were British/Spanish/French/Russian and several other countries, he would not have been an Olympian. Eric the eel was an olympian, born in the right country at the right time, but this doesn't do anything to further or hinder Dans argument..


Ohh man... along similar lines...I remember working at the ITU world champs a couple of times back around 2000, and talking to athletes from around the world in my age-group. Some of them were approx 40 mins slower than me over the Olympic distance - and I wouldn't have been in the top 20 in Oz for my age at the time, let alone top 6..!
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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I'm now wondering what Jonny's race would have looked like if big brother had not been in attendance to TTT with him on the day. Considering how close the group was to swallowing them up, it's hard to imagine Jonny getting away solo or with anyone else but Alistair.

So what would the race have looked like with AB absolutely drilling it?

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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Easier bike then a running race between him and Alarza, probably. I do fear that ITU races without AB are going to revert to "wet run" format.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [r0bh] [ In reply to ]
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In that sense Alistair will go to Rio regardless or not if he's going for Gold.

We all know that the British Triathlon place getting medals as their no.1 objective.

Who better to be the pilot/domestique than Alistair.

Shedding Mola and Murray is their optimal strategy. Alex Yee (19yr old who will be out for a few months after having a big crash in the Cagliari world cup) could be the fall back option if it all comes together as he's just ran a 13:37 5k). Although Tom Bishop is starting to look a pretty solid athlete himself.
Last edited by: messien: Jun 13, 17 6:17
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [messien] [ In reply to ]
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messien wrote:
In that sense Alistair will go to Rio regardless or not if he's going for Gold.

We all know that the British Triathlon place getting medals as their no.1 objective.

Who better to be the pilot/domestique than Alistair.

Shedding Mola and Murray is their optimal strategy. Alex Yee (19yr old who will be out for a few months after having a big crash in the Cagliari world cup) could be the fall back option if it all comes together as he's just ran a 13:37 5k). Although Tom Bishop is starting to look a pretty solid athlete himself.

With the chance to "3 peet" and earn one in the relay - I'd think its a really safe bet he will be there unless he gets injured.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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sciguy wrote:
I'm now wondering what Jonny's race would have looked like if big brother had not been in attendance to TTT with him on the day. Considering how close the group was to swallowing them up, it's hard to imagine Jonny getting away solo or with anyone else but Alistair.

So what would the race have looked like with AB absolutely drilling it?

Ali said Jonny wanted to call it a day when the pack was 5secs away from them but Ali pushed on and said let them catch us, that's the difference between the two I think.

Jonny still would have tried a couple of breaks after being swallowed up by the pack I reckon, forced the pace he'd have hit the run with fresher legs than if he'd not been with Ali, but not as fresh as Alarza my money would still be on Jonny.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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This coming September could be interesting. Alistair is all set to race the WTC 70.3 Championship in Chattanooga on the the 10th where there is a high potential to be hotter and a lot more humid than Samorin was. Then there's the ITU Grand Final a week later that he's also voiced a commitment to. If Jonny needs a super performance at Rotterdam like he did at Cozumel it might create an interesting mental dilemma for Alistair if he's being pressed out on the run in 30*C+ temperatures and thinks about how things need to go a week later. It really looks like that thought process may have gone on at Samorin but with more of a real world championship on the line the equation may be different. If Javier races Chattanooga there one more thing to factor in. You've got to figure Alistair wants to beat Javier at something where he's already won the WC.

It will be a super exciting September whatever the outcome.

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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sciguy wrote:
This coming September could be interesting. Alistair is all set to race the WTC 70.3 Championship in Chattanooga on the the 10th where there is a high potential to be hotter and a lot more humid than Samorin was. Then there's the ITU Grand Final a week later that he's also voiced a commitment to. If Jonny needs a super performance at Rotterdam like he did at Cozumel it might create an interesting mental dilemma for Alistair if he's being pressed out on the run in 30*C+ temperatures and thinks about how things need to go a week later. It really looks like that thought process may have gone on at Samorin but with more of a real world championship on the line the equation may be different. If Javier races Chattanooga there one more thing to factor in. You've got to figure Alistair wants to beat Javier at something where he's already won the WC.

It will be a super exciting September whatever the outcome.

Alistair has said a few times that 70.3 WC is his top goal for this year so I imagine he'll be focused on that at the expense of the Grand Final. He may well domestique Jonny but can't see going for the win motivating him in any way.

As for 2018, if he wins 70.3 Worlds on the first attempt I think we may see him move back to ITU at least part time. Unless any of the up and comers are better than him by then, I just can't see him not wanting that relay medal.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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sciguy wrote:
This coming September could be interesting. Alistair is all set to race the WTC 70.3 Championship in Chattanooga on the the 10th where there is a high potential to be hotter and a lot more humid than Samorin was. Then there's the ITU Grand Final a week later that he's also voiced a commitment to. If Jonny needs a super performance at Rotterdam like he did at Cozumel it might create an interesting mental dilemma for Alistair if he's being pressed out on the run in 30*C+ temperatures and thinks about how things need to go a week later. It really looks like that thought process may have gone on at Samorin but with more of a real world championship on the line the equation may be different. If Javier races Chattanooga there one more thing to factor in. You've got to figure Alistair wants to beat Javier at something where he's already won the WC.

It will be a super exciting September whatever the outcome.

Gomez is surely only going to race Chattanooga if he has no chance of winning the world ITU title?

I'd expect him to be in the running in Rotterdam, Gomez's main aim at the start of the year was to regain the ITU title.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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This is too funny.
Not even ITU can separate the brothers.
Jonny Brownlee has been congratulated on winning the World Series event in his home city of Leeds by the International Triathlon Union, despite having come second to brother Alistair.
http://www.bbc.com/...t/triathlon/40279973
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Halvard] [ In reply to ]
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The other way to look at it is, they were only off by 1 placešŸ¤£

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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I was thinking about this difference (quality of US women triathletes vs men triathletes) and I agree with what I believe Dan has stated in the past. The biggest advantage that the US women have is that they have (on average) more opportunity in endurance sports compared to international female peers whereas the US men have the same or even less opportunity in endurance sport compared to other international males. Title IX being the likely causative factor. That isn't to say that US females have overall more opportunity than US males at endurance sport, just compared to the average international triathlete. But this doesn't completely explain the D1 college conundrum, whereby the college recruitment program has churned out winner after winner for the ladies and been pretty lukewarm with the boys.

Then I remembered this recent article by Lauren Fleshman. The whole article is great, but the useful bit for this discussion is when she talks about the developmental differences between teen boys and girls, "You are about to bathe in different hormones, hormones that, more often than not, temporarily interrupt that promised straight line of improvement." So my hypothesis is this: from a talent ID perspective, selecting from a group of 21-22 year old women is a more effective strategy than selecting from a group of similarly aged men, primarily due to the supposition that it is far more difficult to correctly identify 17-18 year old girls who will be talented senior athletes compared to 17-18 year old boys. This isn't to say that for a given talented junior triathlete, like a Taylor Knibb or Austin Hindman, that if she is a woman she should go run or swim D1 for 4 years or if he is a man he should dedicate right away to triathlon. That is another discussion entirely. But simply that it may take longer for the proverbial cream to rise to the top of the women's pool of talent than for the men.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [r0bh] [ In reply to ]
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r0bh wrote:
The counter-argument that supports ABs assertion that he wasn't right from the start gun that day is that he couldn't hold Varga's feet in the swim, which he would normally be able to do.

Anyway, that's history now. Yesterday was a phenomenal performance and must go into his top 5 or top 10 races list (plenty of contenders for that list!)

I don't think you can point to not holding Varga's feet as anything. In ITU racing it doesn't behoove Varga to put time into the field.

Did you watch the Leeds race? Varga cruised for 1400 and then wrecked everyone for the last 100. No one is in his class in the water.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Dumples] [ In reply to ]
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Dumples wrote:
I was thinking about this difference (quality of US women triathletes vs men triathletes) and I agree with what I believe Dan has stated in the past. The biggest advantage that the US women have is that they have (on average) more opportunity in endurance sports compared to international female peers whereas the US men have the same or even less opportunity in endurance sport compared to other international males. Title IX being the likely causative factor. That isn't to say that US females have overall more opportunity than US males at endurance sport, just compared to the average international triathlete. But this doesn't completely explain the D1 college conundrum, whereby the college recruitment program has churned out winner after winner for the ladies and been pretty lukewarm with the boys.

Then I remembered this recent article by Lauren Fleshman. The whole article is great, but the useful bit for this discussion is when she talks about the developmental differences between teen boys and girls, "You are about to bathe in different hormones, hormones that, more often than not, temporarily interrupt that promised straight line of improvement." So my hypothesis is this: from a talent ID perspective, selecting from a group of 21-22 year old women is a more effective strategy than selecting from a group of similarly aged men, primarily due to the supposition that it is far more difficult to correctly identify 17-18 year old girls who will be talented senior athletes compared to 17-18 year old boys. This isn't to say that for a given talented junior triathlete, like a Taylor Knibb or Austin Hindman, that if she is a woman she should go run or swim D1 for 4 years or if he is a man he should dedicate right away to triathlon. That is another discussion entirely. But simply that it may take longer for the proverbial cream to rise to the top of the women's pool of talent than for the men.


This still does not explain why the women selected at age 21/22 are more successful than the men selected at 21/22. Also, Fleshman's article mainly addresses women as runners, not swimmers. Katie L is only the latest example of 15-19 yr old girls winning Oly gold and setting WRs, vs boys who tend to not peak until 20-24, with some exceptions such as Ian Thorpe. Since swimming is a key part of ITU triathlon, this is not a minor point. :)


"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Dumples] [ In reply to ]
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interesting point. i'd just say this, that from my observation what you can't tell is what will happen to a high school freshman. what's typical is for a HS freshman girl to run a 2:10 for 800m, then as a sophomore to run 2:10, same as a junior, same as a senior. boys progress as you suspect they would.

by the time they get to that senior year, however, if she's running a sub-10min 3200, she's probably going to be a great runner thereafter.

the problem in europe is this: is that woman ever going to run that sub-3200m in high school? and if she does, and she's got a swim club background, is anyone going to pay her good money to race as a pro triathlete?

the USA seems to have a great developmental pipeline, men and women, up thru U20, and somewhat to U23. our men do GREAT as juniors. let's watch austin hindman along with the juniors he beat in cozumel. let's watch taylor knibb along with the juniors she beat in cozumel. let's see how much support the boys who austin vanquished get in the next 3 years. let's see how much support the girls taylor vanquished get in the next 3 years. that is, i think, the measure of how hard or easy a time either austin or taylor will have racing against the same folks 3 years from now they beat last year.

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Dumples] [ In reply to ]
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Dumples wrote:
But simply that it may take longer for the proverbial cream to rise to the top of the women's pool of talent than for the men.

You've raised a very valid point, and something any coach working in that U23/U20 female space already knows.

What is 'the cream' at 14/15/16/17/18 is likely not the cream at senior level.

The male and female development trajectory may as well be different sports.

Just look at the quality of U23 Worlds in the females compared to the males.

I've said for some time now our federation should spend their dollars Talent ID'ing in that 20-25 age bracket for the females. Get a massive list of those athletes that haven't 'made it' in soccer, rowing, etc, and find out who had swim lessons when they were younger.

http://www.sweat7.com
Facebook Page: Sweat7
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [Dumples] [ In reply to ]
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Related to your post: I know of a few guys who could swim in the lead pack of an ITU race who didn't swim in college because they didn't get any money. Barb Lindquists scouting program works well for women, BUT for the men they should be looking at HS, not college.

The 4:35 500 / 4:25 1500 guy isn't competing collegiately.
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Re: ITU Leeds predictions and race day thread - Spoilers will eventually occur [ajthomas] [ In reply to ]
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ajthomas wrote:
Related to your post: I know of a few guys who could swim in the lead pack of an ITU race who didn't swim in college because they didn't get any money. Barb Lindquist's scouting program works well for women, BUT for the men they should be looking at HS, not college.

The 4:35 500 / 4:25 1500 guy isn't competing collegiately.

Do you mean 4:35/16:00??? Assuming yes, I would edit to say "isn't swimming D1" as said guy could easily swim D3 or NAIA. Just a thought.


"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."
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