I'm predicting a complete Brownlee masterclass for this, I think there's only Gomez who could challenge either of them on this course.

For the woman's I reckon we'll see Stanford trying to run Duffy down but just come short.

I have grandstand tickets will anyone else be about?

The ITU is pretty strict on moto distances... The close ups come from a zoom lens... From what I've seen at ITU events, they have no problems in pulling motorcycles from the course that don't stay out of the way, and maintain appropriate distances.

and you're basing this on............blind faith?

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Experience... I've witnessed in person multiple ITU events where motos were removed from the course when they were not respecting vehicular draft zones. I've also witnessed the moto pilot pre-race briefings at ITU events, where the rules are clearly articulated to anyone with vehicular access to the field of play. Of course, there may be some variability in terms of how this is implemented from event to event, depending on the Officials present, but it has been pretty consistent at the events ITU I've been at (there is a specific role for an official at ITU events around the control of the course, relating primarily to vehicles on course).

OK then please explain how the moto was shooting video around the corner here if he was at least 12 meters ahead. There are numerous similar segments in the coverage. Mirrors?

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

There is a whole other thread dedicated to this subject on this forum but ok I'll bite! Ali attempts to break if a massive pack forms at least two or three times in ITU races but abandons if no one goes with him usually (I can't remember him ever going alone) if he can draft off the lead moto so easy why doesn't he go solo?

The thing is the motos seem to stay very close for the first lap or two and then back off as they did at Leeds. So if you were out there all by your lonesome after getting a sweet gap you'd be in for a long solo. Taking several other good bikers with you allows for making it the whole way in good shape. It's smart strategy on his and Jonny's part and they work it like masters. They're great athletes and super savvy as well.

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Would you prefer Ali to do a Mola, and just sit in the main pack and draft round the whole bike keeping himself as fresh as he can for the run?

yeap. gomez and mola rarely take risks on the bike. alistair does, and sometimes it pays off. having said that mola must have a high w/kg compared to other triathletes as i think he did pretty well on the kitzbuhl uphill bike leg that year, so the fact he never seems to do anything on the bike is also suggestive of him just saving himself for the run.

I predict I'll get out of the water in about 28 minutes, hate the run up the hill to T1, smash the bike leg, then once I've run up the hill out of T2, I'll enjoy the mostly downhill run, including the steep bit that goes past my front door. The wind and the occasional shower may also cause issues. The support in the city centre will be incredible even for AGers like me.

I also predict that some of the local strava segments will be put even further out of my reach.

His swim is better this year. He was front-pack (6th-7th) out of water in both Yokahoma and Madrid.He was also within seconds of 1st guy out of water in Abu Dhabi, where he went on to DNF. I'm guessing he makes front pack in Leeds. Will be exiting!

So here is a shot taken fairly early in the bike last year. Jonny is still in the chasing group of 3 with Varga and Javier. One dash plus space on the road markings is exactly 6 meters. Notice the lead moto is ~ 8 or 9 meters ahead of Alistair and company. The ITU minimum for motor bikes is 12 meters and vehicles 35 meters.

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Considering that he ought to really shine with the tough start to the bike course. My wife keeps calling him "the guy with baby fat". He's going great for such a youngster.

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Don't let yourself get fooled:) He's had great progression last two years (of course I'm biased being Norwegian).

Also - look out for the other Norwegian youngsters C. Stornes (20 in Madrid) and G. Iden (27 in Madrid, though dont think hes going to Leeds). I've said it a couple times before on this board, but just to show the competitiveness of these guys: Iden showed up in IM Norway 70.3 last year for his first HIM (in MPRO ofc), and won in 3:40. Now the field wasn't as strong as a number of other US/European venues, but he still went 20 (a tad short swim-course that year) - 2:09 (on rolling course) - 1:11, and beat amongst others Nils Frommhold and Filip Ospaly.

As I said, enforcement varies... Corners tend to be the most common areas where you get athletes close behind the motos, because the pilots often underestimate the speed at which the cyclists can take the bends (as a racer I've nearly been put in the ditch while in a solo break catching a neutral support vehicle from a race that started ahead of us in a technical section, and the driver who was supposed to yield to me, ended up cutting me off in a chicane section). That said, in the case posted, the moto should have been warned, and then if it happened again, they should have been pulled from the course (which may or may not have happened after the clip). The moto pilots generally don't want to impact the race, but the camera guys on the back are often trying to con them into getting them closer for a "better shot". Unfortunately there are not eyes on the motos everywhere around the course, so you will get some incidences where proper moto draft zones aren't respected, but in general, I've found the ITU to be the least bad at enforcing them, and at least to be actively trying to prevent and police issues...

Duffy
Stanford
Cook

//

JB
Royle
Blumenfeldt

Just rewatched last years women's race. The initial moto tow for Flora, Vicky and Jessica was especially strong for the first lap. We're talking about 3 to 4 meters in this view. Hopefully the moto drivers will get a better briefing this year but I doubt it as break always add to the excitement;)

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

During the broadcast I hope the commentators can stop talking down Blummendelt's run.
In Japan he was the third fastest runner. But if you listen to the commentators you got the impression that he sucked.
Who cares about running form, the clock does not lie.

I've noticed that when Blummenfelt runs he kinda has a deformed chest. Does he stick an inhaler down there or something? this was really noticeable when I saw him competing here in Auckland.

No wonder he's so fast. The Norwegian's have obviously opened him up and added an extra heart and set of lungs;)
I hope he make the front of the bike on Sunday and sets off some fireworks.

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

The odds are in and the bookies have J.Brownlee as favorite, Schoeman at 12/1 would of been a good EW bet but they're only paying out on the first two places now rather than the 3.

For those of you who fancy Blummenfelt you can get 18/1 on him. They haven't got any odds up for the women's race yet.

What the hell is that protrusion on his chest?

Looks like its going to burst out of his chest like in Aliens.

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Advocating for research & treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME).
http://www.meaction.net/about/what-is-me/

"Suck it up, Buttercup"
(me, to myself, every day)

Perfect Brownlee weather predicted. 18/19, possible a light shower during the mens race, about 18mph easterly wind.

Swam in the lake earlier, it's not particularly warm or cold. My feet were a bit cold by the end but certainly nothing to worry anyone about.

Organisation is a LOT better this year, and whilst the AGers don't have to do it, the Elites I think still have the steep uphill start from the mount line.

Women's odds are out and if you're thinking the race is going to go the same as last year and either Learmouth 22/1 or Hall 40/1 can hold on for 2nd there is money to be made EW. Stanford at 3/1 has some good value in it.