Probably 2. But they may luck into a 3rd due to the random distribution approach that WTC uses for the final few slots.

 Not sure they're worried about that right now. If you haven't seen pics, there's about 2+ feet of water on the running course they're having to wade through. It's a shitshow https://www.facebook.com/...sts/1208867075802236

What's the point of having a race in those conditions? How is that even safe?

dcohen24 wrote:

Does anyone know the distribution of the slots?

M18-24 30 1
M25-29 107 2
M30-34 131 2
M35-39 221 3
M40-44 231 3
M45-49 298 4
M50-54 208 3
M55-59 97 2
M60-64 48 1
M65-69 23 1
M70-74 8 1
M75-79 1 1

F18-24 9 1
F25-29 52 1
F30-34 68 2
F35-39 93 2
F40-44 107 2
F45-49 104 2
F50-54 80 2
F55-59 47 1
F60-64 17 1
F65-69 2 1
F70-74 1 1

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Sylvan Smyth | http://www.sportstats.asia | sylvan@sportstats.asia | Starvas

Thank you!
My girlfriend got second... She definitely cares:)

And she ran through that puddle every time... I have amazing video

Don't see anyone wearing wetsuits in those photos. I guess it wasn't wetsuit legal on the run?

Your girlfriend needs to thank her lucky stars that WTC can't do math. F30-34 should have only received a single slot, but thanks to the pseudo-random distribution aspect of the WTC algorithm, F30-34 lucked into #2. Specifically, the final 11 slots were distributed by ranking the fractional portion of each AG's proportional slot allocation, which is flat out wrong as was made very clear by the IMWI slot debacle where M18-24 got a 2nd slot that it would not have received had the race had more to give.

If WTC knew how to properly give away those final 11 slots, F30-34 would not have received #2. So, your girlfriend is not only fast, but lucky!

I think its funny you can KQ without even knowing how to swim. A bad swimmer could try to target races with bad weather and register on site.

In her case, she's a 54-55 minute swimmer... The girl who beat her is closer to 1:10 swimmer.

The whole day was getting over that. Having a strong suit taken away sucks.

So in one way she's lucky there was a 2nd slot, but she probably wouldn't have needed the 2nd slot if the swim wasn't cancelled.

The Kona Gods are very fickle. As mentioned in the IMWI thread, with 40 slots now, you gotta be Fast and Lucky.

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Proud Member of Chris McDonald's 2018 Big Sexy Race Team "That which doesn't kill me, will only make me stronger"
Blog-Twitter-Instagram-Race Reports - 2018 Races: IM Florida 70.3, IM Raleigh 70.3, IM 70.3 World Championships - South Africa, IM North Carolina 70.3

You should run the numbers from the last few races and get with Slowman on it. Have him write an article on it and see if he can get Messick to respond. Its crazy that people are being screwed out of spots by a simple math equation that they refuse to acknowledge or fix. That's if they even know that there math is flawed. Sylvan posts on here a lot maybe he can shed some light on the issue.

I know you post the slots on here. Who is responsible for the slot allocation formula, the RD?

I fixed that for you.

Worse, you can KQ without even being an Ironman.

Ironman. All the races use the same formula.

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Sylvan Smyth | http://www.sportstats.asia | sylvan@sportstats.asia | Starvas

M30-34 has twice as many people, but gets the same # of slots? WTF?

Will you acknowledge that with Ironman's formula for IMWI 2016 that M18-24 would have gotten fewer slots had the race had more total available? Specifically that the AG received 2 with the 40 total the race had to give, but would have only gotten 1 had there been 41, or 42, or 43 instead?

Does Ironman have a defense of this behavior of its formula? You and I both know it is wrong. What I want to know is why they will not acknowledge it or fix it.

First off, don't think of it as proportional anymore. There's 40 slots, 23 of which are given to each AG, leaving only 17 to be proportionally distributed. So it's really more of a flat distribution than a proportional one now.

But anyway, here we go. One time and one time only. This is how WTC does it.

40 slots to give.

1. 23 AGs with a starter, so there go 23 slots
2. 17 slots remaining to "proportionally" distribute amongst all 23 AGs. This results in a lot of 0.x, 1.x, 2.x, 3.x slot distributions to each AG. Lop off the fractional part, the .x, and allocate the 0,1,2,3 discrete slot to each AG. This results in 6 slots being given away with 11 yet to find a home.
3. Uh oh. We still have 11 to go. What do we do? Round the fractional part (the .x)? No, that's not right. Rank the fractional part and give away the top 11 .x fractional ranks? No, that's not right either. But, yes, that is what WTC does.

It's not the correct way, but this is what it does. This essentially says that an AG earning 2.25 slots deserves another slot before an AG earning 5.24 slots does. Which is false. And is why the situation at IMWI occurred where M18-24's .x fractional component ranked high (and thus got another slot) when there were 40 slots but ranked low (and thus did not) when there are more.

The correct way to proportionally distribute discrete elements is to disregard the fractional component altogether. Skip step 3 altogether. A slot is not earned until an entire slot it is earned. So, 1.99 does not earn 2, but 2.00 does.

There's multiple mathematical ways to go about this. But the simplest to conceptualize is simply to run the algorithm with more slots until the actual total number (17) have been given away as of step 2 above. In this IMMD case, if WTC were to run its algorithm attempting to give away 48.8 slots then it would have properly distributed the 17 it actually has as of step 2 above.

I know who DID get the 1 slot in 70-74. A great guy from WVa. He's been fighting illness this past year and worked his butt off. I'm so proud of him. Way to go Ron!!!!!

Any roll downs?

I
Sorry but I didn't ask. I'm not there. All I know is he won his AG.

F35-39 rolled one slot down. And one of the younger men's AGs rolled one slot but I forget which.

I believe it was M25-29.

Have they announced how many KQ slots IMMD will have in 2017 for 2018 Kona? Have other 2017 races announced?

Thanks,
GS