I'm curious to see them as well, as it will be complicated by the wetsuit vs. non-wetsuit swimmers.

I saw a FB post last night with the starters by AG (see the IM Chattanooga FB group). Remarkable to see the aging Ironman population. Used to be 35-39 was the big AG. Then 40-44. Yesterday, 45-49 was almost as big as 40-44 and 35-39 was lagging. We really need an infusion of youth in this sport.

Then we need to grow the Sprint and Olympic races, as that is where new long term blood comes in. Ironman 1 and done people won't help the sport.

amen.

Based on the number of starters per AG from the Athlete Tracker, here is how the allocation will play out. Note that this will not be precisely correct because the starter numbers includes everyone and does not exclude wetsuiters. But, assuming the proportion of wetsuiters to non-wetsuiters is roughly the same in each AG, it should work out pretty close to this.

https://docs.google.com/...VME/edit?usp=sharing


Column C is the total slots. The other columns D-H is just there to illustrate to people exactly how WTC's allocation works.

Does that consider wetsuits?

No. Only WTC/sportstats has the information on who wore a wetsuit and knows the true Non-wetsuit Starters per AG numbers that dictate the allocation. As noted in my original post, the calculator is based on total starters per AG and shows how the allocation would play out if all participants were eligible. It will be interesting to see how the wetsuit optional dimension alters this.

Someone onsite, kindly take a photo of the distribution that gets posted at awards/rolldown.

FYI we remove all wetsuit participants from the calculation, out of the 2260 participants, remove the pros and wetsuits, left with 1573 starters....will try to get the photo of the slot allocation up.

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Sylvan Smyth | http://www.sportstats.asia | sylvan@sportstats.asia | Starvas

Here's the comparison of how the distro plays out if it had been wetsuit legal (or forbidden) vs wetsuit optional.

Left is if all had been Kona eligible. Right is with wetsuiters removed. 600 folks chose to go with wetsuits and it impacted the number of Kona slots for some AGs.

Just for grins what does this look like when there are only 40 spots next year?

MC

For the guys on site - any roll downs?

Here are the numbers comparing 50 vs 40. Also, you can use the spreadsheet linked above, make your copy (File->Make a Copy), and then tweak numbers however you please.

Wow, 3 spots for 40-44...no sneaking into kona there

Interesting comparison. Going from 50 to 40 seems to skim off the slots only from the most populous age groups as compared with the others. I figured the number of slots would scale back in some of age groups on the fringes (like 60-64, where I was thinking the slots would drop from 2 to 1).

The reason is because the distribution is really going from 27 to 17, not 50 to 40. The flaw in WTC's allocation algorithm starts to become very apparent when the number of slots to distribute dwindles.

Did anybody see how the rolldown went? I heard some of the age groups rolled down pretty far...

I'm going to be sick if M45-49 was one of them. Anyone know?

Not really. All spots were taken by the people who placed first in their AGs, expect for Men 18-24 (1st place had to left for school and rolled down to 2nd) and another spot from Men 40-44 or 45-49 roll down one.

In te women category, the spot for the oldest AG was relocated (the only women didn't accept it) and I think there was only one AG with 1 spot that rolled down one position.

I got 5th in 30-34 and was hoping for a miracle...

I was 6th in M 45-49 in my first IM. I stayed at the rolldown until the bitter end.

All 5 took their slot. (it was 4 plus one rolldown from Men's 75-79, I believe?).
Second place wasn't there during awards, so I had some hope that at least one spot would roll.
It did not.

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Man, you lost out on it becoming a wetsuit optional swim. Your AG would have had 5 slots had it been a wetsuit allowed or wetsuit forbidden race, but because it was wetsuit optional your AG only got 4. Presumably none of the 600 people who opted out of Kona eligibility by wearing a wetsuit would have earned or taken a Kona slot had wetsuits been allowed, so from a competitive point of view the only real impact was that your AG lost a slot, and you were the poor soul who lost out on this one. Bum luck.

thanks for the spread sheet, was able to get rough idea of how many spots may be available at IMMD sat.

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2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz

You trying to make him feel worse? :)

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Let food be thy medicine...

I hope it didn't come out that way, or he doesn't take it that way. It's nothing but dumb, bad luck, and sometimes when you're on the receiving end of dumb, bad luck, you've just got to laugh and shake your head. I mean, the fact that you don't make Kona simply being that your AG had an abnormally high percentage of participants who DQed themselves from Kona eligibility. That just sucks.

He can also take solace in the fact that I am actually probably wrong. With wetsuiters removed his AG received 4 slots but was the first "most deserving" AG to get the next one when the unused slot rolled out of M75-79, so ended up with 5. With wetsuiters included his AG would have received 5 slots, but likely would no longer have been the first "most deserving". So, in either scenario he ends up one spot off. Maybe that will help.... :)

Bummer, man. Sorry to hear that.

I got 12th and we were contemplating staying for a possible roll-down. I didn't think there was any way 7 people would pass, so we hit the road at 7:45 to go home.

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king of the road says you move too slow
KING OF THE ROAD SAYS YOU MOVE TOO SLOW