Looks to be about 500.

So 1/5 th of the field.

---

You and I both. I wouldn't be surprised if they go the 70.3 route next year.

They had an aggressive bike cutoff due to traffic permits at 5:30. They were also pulling people who didn't have a "chance" to make it based on their first loop pace.

Mrs McAwesome make the bike cutoff by 5 minutes and had plenty of time for the run.

Word on the street is that people are blaming the rolling start and a long T1 - anyone with 1/2 a brain stripped naked and put on all dry winter cycling gear - for the number of people flirting with and/or missing the cutoff time.

---

/kj

http://kjmcawesome.tumblr.com/

Ironman don't tend to publish the DNF or DNS numbers for their races.

You can make a fairly decent estimate from the results though. Athlete tracker lists 2265 competitors and 1717 of those have a finish time, which gives a DNF rate of 24.2%. Some of those will probably be DNS though as you can't tell if an individual without a swim time DNFed in the swim or simply didn't start. The original bib list on Ironman.com had 2650+ athletes so it looks like a lot of entrants didn't turn up either.

I've put some other numbers on my blog - http://www.coachcox.co.uk/...ll-results-analysis/, but basically it was very tough, particularly the bike.

Russ

---

--
Blog - Twitter - Coaching - Training Camps

In fairness, 5:30 is pretty much the standard bike cutoff for all the WTC IMs that occur in the US. Considering the difficulty of the bike course one might consider it aggressive but folks should have know that coming in. It really wasn't any sort of secret that the bike would be very tough.

The rolling start got everyone in the water by ~ 6:55 rather then a mass start at 7:00. I'm not sure how that increased DNFs. Less people getting really badly jostled at the beginning probably actually helped a bit. Swim times look pretty normal at first glance. Now the super long T-1 may well have been the straw that broke the camels back for those cutting it close but preventing hypothermia was way more important. One scary thing is that the weather really was decent compared to what it could have been. I'd bet the race won't sell out any time soon if at all.

YMMV,

Hugh

---

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Seems like the DNF rate is still lower than 2012 IMSG in this case. I think IMLT will go the same way, 140.6 next year with less participants, even less the year after and then convert into a 70.3...

---

_____________________
Don't forget to attack!

Nice breakdown and graphs. Do you have a breakdown of the DNF numbers for all/some of the other North American IMs?

---

__________________________________________________________________________
My marathon PR is "under three, high twos. I had a two hour and fifty-something."

What Hugh said....the cut off was standard and in fact, everyone got into the water early so they had longer. Too bad for the folks that did not make the cut off.

It sounds like the event was pretty epic. I'd recommend to WTC to move this into late July/Early August when the water has warmed up to its peak and chance of snow is lower. Also I don't know if it is possible, but they should do like Ironman France and have the shortest bike course that you can have within their tolerances...it does not "need" to be 180K....170ish K would do. Or even 100 miles would do, but 100 miles would set a precedent on creating bike courses that take just as long as IMFlorida or IMArizona but are shorter in distance due to the additional vertical. I don't know why all you guys need to be hung up on the distance...by being hung up on the distance, what is happening is WTC is having to "flatten courses" because people cannot make cut offs.

By the way, there is a precendent to this. The old WTT was shortened from 2.4 mile swim, 112 mile bike, 26 mile run to 2 mile swim, 100 mile bike, 20 mile run. They made all the shortening so that normal humans would take around the same time they would take in a "regular Ironman". My time on the 2/100/20 mile course was within 10 minutes of my times in Penticton. On the old course, I don't think that even Scott Molina broke 10 hours. WTC would do well to consider some bike course shortening so that everyone still gets the bike done in the same "duration".

I have start numbers, splits and finishers from all race results listed on Ironman.com, but it's actually pretty tricky to get good DNF numbers.

The problem is consistency. Some races appear to put all athletes into the results, others only this who register on site. There's also no indication if an athlete actually started the race, so an athlete in the tracker with no swim time may have DNFed in the swim or may not have started. For the most part I could probably assume relatively few swim DNFs and compare final numbers with swim numbers for DNFs, but some races have high swim DNFs and would be wrong.

I've done a few races from around the world where I could find accurate DNS/DNF data: http://www.coachcox.co.uk/...-of-the-ironman-dnf/

It gives some idea to what the normal is like, basically around 4-8% appears to be the norm, 10-15% is high and anything 20%+ is exceptional.

Russ

---

--
Blog - Twitter - Coaching - Training Camps

Just swap the dates with Louisville... killed 2 birds with 1 stone right there. I'd put Louisville back in consideration in Mid Sept... or push it to early October and you'd have some awesome Fall colors.... although a suset finish for even the FOP AG'rs. I have doen a 2 day 200mile ride in SOuthern Ohia a couple times in Oct. and the weather was awesome. Crisp low humidty upper 40's in the morning, and mid 70's by afternoon.

---

TrainingBible Coaching
http://www.trainingbible.com

^^THIS! But it makes just too much sense so I doubt it will happen.

Best idea yet!!! I'd move Tahoe a bit earlier though....maybe the weekend that Tremblant occupies.

Ah yes, we must blame something for not making the cuts. It couldn't possibly be because the course was hard as hell and we just simply hadn't trained for that level of difficulty, no that couldn't be it...

I haven't seen any off the charts T1 times, maybe an extra 10 minutes? That didn't really cause the issues.

Dev, the swim temperatures were fine! Was probably the low 60's. I wore booties and a rubber hat. I wish I had not worn
the booties. I had a real slow swim time and I think the booties were part of the reason. Probably did not need the rubber hat either.

Weather conditions were PERFECT! If it had been any warmer, this would have hurt folks even more climbing the steep climbs
in the sun since there is no shade and during the run.

Racing with snow on the mountain tops around us was just so cool. The swim with the mist was cool, even though we could
not see the buoys. The run was pretty and I had no issues with folks, but I finished before 8 and it was not totally dark.
What it was like on the bike path when totally dark shall be interesting to hear.

I have lots of friends who did the race and did not finish. They either missed the bike or run cutoffs. They had to have these the way they do
for traffic, and finishing by 12pm. No reason to let them keep going when clearly they would not finish the race. And, they would not be safe.

If you want a real IM race, where the results mean something big, this is the real deal!! Will I do it again, NOPE! I always knew I could not compete
at longer stuff because my bike it so bad. Proved it again. I outran the guy who won my division, but he crushed my on the bike,
Back to short course racing where I can run down some of these folks.

I ended up in the med tent for an hour since my core temp drop too much after the race. It got cold when the sun went down.
I wonder how the last folks did.

.

---

Dave Campbell | Facebook | @DaveECampbell | h2ofun@h2ofun.net

Boom Nutrition code 19F4Y3 $5 off 24 pack box | Bionic Runner | PowerCranks | Velotron | Spruzzamist

Lions don't lose sleep worrying about the sheep

Agreed. It's crazy to read threads and see people complain about how WTC only adds 'easy' courses, catering to the completers, and no new Ironman races are hard courses. Then they put a course like this in and people get upset about strict time cutoffs, high DNF rates and want things changed. They operate on a double edged sword and people give them shit about everything they do. Cut them some slack. They put on great events. Keeping 2000+ high strung triathletes happy at every race is near impossible.

---

_____________________________________________________
Instagram | Team Kiwami North America

Seems like jsut not wearing your tri top with a 2 piece would have been good enough. 10 seconds to towel off, throw on your dry tri top, toss on arm warmers, cycling vest and maybe leg warmers and roll out of there.

I agree, if you're someone that barely makes cut-offs, you need ot look over the course, look at your training, and decide if you can make it BEFORE entering the race. The harder courses are simply not condusive for the far BOP athletes. A real badge of honor to just make the cut offs.

But I also agree, that this likely will become a niche 70.3. With so many entering these races just to survive and not race , there simply isn't a place for many hard courses in the Ironman business model.

---

TrainingBible Coaching
http://www.trainingbible.com

It was so cold that doing anything other than a complete change would have been a bad idea. I must have had to pee on the bike
10 times, but never once on the bike since no way was I going to get myself wet and freeze more. (Another reason my bike
time sucked)

Everyone had lots of clothes on and boy was this needed. If I had not had lots of layers on the top, I would have been screwed.

I was not able to get any legs stuff on since I could not move around in the changing tent but that was okay. Sure was glad
I had some great gloves or again, hands would have been numb. Lots left the gloves on the entire race. I did not drop them off until
like mile 80.

Many just were not watching the clock. Maybe stopped at the bike special need bags and get them a DNF. Many spent too much
time using the Johns during the ride.

Great point about who should enter a race. I have NO desire to do a race anyone can finish. I am very proud to have completed this race
based on so many who could not! Now, can WTC find enough who really want a challenge?

.

---

Dave Campbell | Facebook | @DaveECampbell | h2ofun@h2ofun.net

Boom Nutrition code 19F4Y3 $5 off 24 pack box | Bionic Runner | PowerCranks | Velotron | Spruzzamist

Lions don't lose sleep worrying about the sheep

I agree with this post.

It was a difficult race, but it was extremely beautiful.

My father, on the other hand, thought it was a disaster. He was upset about the difficulty (temperatures, elevation, early very dark evening), but I tried to explain that it being an inaugural event, none of us *really* knew what we were getting ourselves into 14 months ago. Now that there is a data point available, maybe BOP will think twice about this event.

I'm glad I did it. It was epic.

This is so true!

If it sells out it won;t turn into a 70.3...or could they change or alter the bike route. Everyone else seems to do that if it hinders registration!

+1 ----- This is a good idea, WTC needs to think about how to keep IMLT from becoming another race like ST George. It is possible this race will limp along and may sell out from year to year given its proximity to the Bay Area. But this could end up being a 70% sell out as a late season "I DARE YOU" race too.

Aug IMLT would be perfect !

Just swap the dates with Louisville... killed 2 birds with 1 stone right there. I'd put Louisville back in consideration in Mid Sept... or push it to early October and you'd have some awesome Fall colors.... although a suset finish for even the FOP AG'rs.


You're forgetting that the new Ironman Chattanooga is Sept. 28 and only about a 5 hour drive south of Louisville.

Yup, IMCHoo will prevent the date switch. BUT I like the idea of having a race on the WTC calendar that might not sell out, this gives people one more IM race to choose where they do not need to dedicate themselves a year out to race.