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Help me run a smart marathon
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Lots of setup here, then my question:

I'm running a November marathon. I've struggled with staying healthy the last few years, and I'm finally (knock on all the wood) having a great season of training. I want to run this marathon smart - negative split, plenty in the tank to find a gear on mile 18. I'm not chasing a time goal, I'll let the training dictate the time.

This morning I had a great 18 miler/race rehearsal. I broke down mileage/pacing thus:

First 2 miles: 10:00/mi
2-5: 9:30
5-13: 9:10
13-18: 8:30

I finished with an average pace of 9:06. My race plan right now would be to stay at 9:10 to mile 18, then go to 8:30.

Average HR was just 125 - about 67% of max (187) - great for LSD. Max was 147. I had plenty in the tank - which again, it's a training run, so not looking to be wasted.

A recent 5k threshold run of 7:31/mi has Daniels running formula putting my marathon pace at 8:42/mi, and anticipates a marathon finish of 3:48. All very doable I think.

Finally my question: Am I pacing too conservatively? Should I be spending miles 5-18 at closer to 9:00/mi? Go to Daniels MP earlier instead of holding back as long? Should I be working for a higher avg HR and let that dictate pace? Should I find the new gear earlier - say mile 16? Should I just shut up and not worry about it? I don't want to leave anything out there on race day.

Happy to offer more info or insights if that's useful. Thanks for any insights.
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Re: Help me run a smart marathon [nitrox] [ In reply to ]
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Am I pacing too conservatively? Your plan seems too conservative to me, but we'd need to know more details. Like your weekly mileage for the last two months, and your long run pace (is the one you laid out here similar to others you've done?). Have you done a HM recently to see what the calculators are saying for your MP?

Should I be spending miles 5-18 at closer to 9:00/mi? Go to Daniels MP earlier instead of holding back as long? I think yes on both of these. Dropping from 9:10 to 8:30 is a big jump.

Should I be working for a higher avg HR and let that dictate pace? Don't know, I don't use HR for running.

Should I find the new gear earlier - say mile 16? If you want a new gear, I think waiting until 20 mile mark would be a good idea, but again, it depends how many you've done and how familiar you are with that last 6 miles.

Should I just shut up and not worry about it? I wouldn't worry about, but I would have a plan that you are comfortable with. I've only run two marathons and negative split them both, but really only had a "plan" in the second one. It was: mile 1-13, cruising at MP (based on a half marathon I did in training), then slowly increase pace through mile 20, then GO! for the 10K.
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Re: Help me run a smart marathon [nitrox] [ In reply to ]
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i have always found that daniels running formula is overly optimistic for my marathon pace and its because i just dont have enough endurance. what is your weekly mileage like now?

your training run today sounds like a good indicator of where your fitness is at now and is not all that much different than how i would pace the marathon. i have never heard someone say, i should have started that marathon faster. you can start out slow and gain back time. but if you go out too fast and blow up, its a long f'in day.

i like to break it up in chunks. 1-13 as the warm-up, running smooth and feeling like i could go faster (but DONT!). 13-20 i give myself a best and worst case scenario. push the tempo but remain comfortable. 20-26, hang on for the ride. push harder if possible or hang on to the pace established from 13-20.

shooting from the hip and based on your times, i would aim for about 2:05 for your first half.
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Re: Help me run a smart marathon [bltri] [ In reply to ]
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bltri wrote:
Am I pacing too conservatively? Your plan seems too conservative to me, but we'd need to know more details. Like your weekly mileage for the last two months, and your long run pace (is the one you laid out here similar to others you've done?). Have you done a HM recently to see what the calculators are saying for your MP?

Should I be spending miles 5-18 at closer to 9:00/mi? Go to Daniels MP earlier instead of holding back as long? I think yes on both of these. Dropping from 9:10 to 8:30 is a big jump.

Should I be working for a higher avg HR and let that dictate pace? Don't know, I don't use HR for running.

Should I find the new gear earlier - say mile 16? If you want a new gear, I think waiting until 20 mile mark would be a good idea, but again, it depends how many you've done and how familiar you are with that last 6 miles.

Should I just shut up and not worry about it? I wouldn't worry about, but I would have a plan that you are comfortable with. I've only run two marathons and negative split them both, but really only had a "plan" in the second one. It was: mile 1-13, cruising at MP (based on a half marathon I did in training), then slowly increase pace through mile 20, then GO! for the 10K.

yeah, good plan
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Re: Help me run a smart marathon [nitrox] [ In reply to ]
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I'm running 35-40 mpw right now. I don't have a race pace HM lately - 1:58 in August, but I was practicing pacing and nutrition a bit. 1:47 is my PR at HM.

Today's first HM was 2:03, so 2:05 range feels about right. I may bump all my first half stuff up 20 seconds/mi and see how it feels before settling in at 8:30.
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Re: Help me run a smart marathon [nitrox] [ In reply to ]
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If you have no real goal time and you just want to finish "happy" then go out with 10 min miles the first 2 miles to settle in and drop it to a comfortable 9:10 min mile then at 18 if you have some additional in the tank start to pick up the pace.

But most will tell you a marathon doesn't start until mile 22 (so you may want to wait until mile 22 before you pick up the pace)and it's VERY difficult to negative split a marathon because of the fatigue factor.

I am training for a marathon now, good luck to you
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Re: Help me run a smart marathon [nitrox] [ In reply to ]
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Seems like too much variation in your pace from the opening 2 to the last 5 IMO. How comfortable does the 9:10 pace feel? Have you tried to just hold a fairly steady pace over 15+ miles maybe varying only 10-20 sec/mile?

As stated previously you don't want to go out too hard and blow up but a steady 2:00 1st 1/2 pace and a 1:57 or 1:58 second 1/2 seems more logical. You are leaving 1-2 minutes on the course those first 2 miles and then seemingly have to burn a match to gain it back at 8:30 pace. if you do that at the race mile 20 is going to seem like a long way to go.

Anyway I would try a steady pace LR to gauge the effort level and make your race pace plan from there.
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Re: Help me run a smart marathon [sdbanker] [ In reply to ]
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yes, i like to get in a 13 to 15 mile run at goal marathon pace (in similar conditions) a month or two out from my marathon. you can then assess honestly how realistically your pace is.

if it helps, my last marathon i negative split the second half by 12 minutes (and if i hadnt started cramping around mi 23, i think i had another 2 or so minutes fitness wise). did i go out too slow? yeah, probably. and i may have left a few minutes on the table. but i felt pretty damn good that second half because i didnt go out too hard. i pr'd, finished close to my best-case time, and it felt good to be running and smiling that back half when a good number of people were hurting and walking. the moral of the story: you almost can't go out too slow in the marathon.

again, if you want to do it smart, i would be conservative for the front half and if you are going to be aggressive at any point, i would do it on that back half. by the back half, you will know what is too aggressive. in the first half, you wont.
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Re: Help me run a smart marathon [nitrox] [ In reply to ]
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What's more important to you - negative splitting, or getting the fastest time you're capable of on that day? Assuming it's the latter, then I'd aim for an even pace rather than building in a 0:40/mile jump for the last 8 miles. Being able to pick up the pace 10 or 20 seconds per mile in the last quarter is a sign of a well-paced race. Being able to pick it up 40 seconds per mile is a sign that you've been taking it too easy for the first 18 miles!

Also, presumably you realise that 18 miles at 9:10 and 8 miles at 8:30 isn't going to get you an average speed of 8:42? It's going to be more like 8:57. If you think 8:42/mile is "very doable" (i.e. pretty conservative), then I'd be setting off at 8:42 pace, sticking there until mile 18 and then see what's left in the tank and how much and when you can pick the pace up. If you think that 8:42/mile is "just doable" (i.e. what you should be capable but only if everything goes well) then I'd be setting off somewhere between 8:50-9:00, picking the pace up to 8:45-8:50 if the legs feel good after a couple of miles, and then gradually picking up the pace to 8:30-8:40 in the last 6-8 miles if you feel you can.
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Re: Help me run a smart marathon [nitrox] [ In reply to ]
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Just go out and run it-no watch, no GPS, no expectations. Enjoy where you are in the moment, do what you can in the moment. It sounds like you are well prepared to have a good race. I did this recently with an expectation of running a specific time-ran conservatively at the beginning, felt great in the middle, and it was hard at the end. No watch, no expectations of splits and 10 seconds off what I thought I would do-and a very fun race (also my first time racing an open marathon) will do this again next one (Boston) only faster I hope.



"If we could give every individual the right amount of nourishment and exercise, not too little and not too much, we would have found the safest way to health"
- Hippocrates, 460-370 BC
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Re: Help me run a smart marathon [nitrox] [ In reply to ]
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How can anyone tell you if you are pacing too conservatively if you have no time goals?

nitrox wrote:
Lots of setup here, then my question:

I'm running a November marathon. I've struggled with staying healthy the last few years, and I'm finally (knock on all the wood) having a great season of training. I want to run this marathon smart - negative split, plenty in the tank to find a gear on mile 18. I'm not chasing a time goal, I'll let the training dictate the time.

This morning I had a great 18 miler/race rehearsal. I broke down mileage/pacing thus:

First 2 miles: 10:00/mi
2-5: 9:30
5-13: 9:10
13-18: 8:30

I finished with an average pace of 9:06. My race plan right now would be to stay at 9:10 to mile 18, then go to 8:30.

Average HR was just 125 - about 67% of max (187) - great for LSD. Max was 147. I had plenty in the tank - which again, it's a training run, so not looking to be wasted.

A recent 5k threshold run of 7:31/mi has Daniels running formula putting my marathon pace at 8:42/mi, and anticipates a marathon finish of 3:48. All very doable I think.

Finally my question: Am I pacing too conservatively? Should I be spending miles 5-18 at closer to 9:00/mi? Go to Daniels MP earlier instead of holding back as long? Should I be working for a higher avg HR and let that dictate pace? Should I find the new gear earlier - say mile 16? Should I just shut up and not worry about it? I don't want to leave anything out there on race day.

Happy to offer more info or insights if that's useful. Thanks for any insights.


__________________________________________________________________________
My marathon PR is "under three, high twos. I had a two hour and fifty-something."
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Re: Help me run a smart marathon [nitrox] [ In reply to ]
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I feel like your leaving a lot of time on the table. I would focus on getting the best time possible, not negative splitting a marathon. The best strategy I've used is to take out the first twenty at a consistent pace and then slowly upping it if you've got the legs left.

Your strategy also leaves out any opportunity to run with a pace group. In the past, I've enjoyed running with the group, good company and good conversations. Otherwise 26.2 gets a bit boring.
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Re: Help me run a smart marathon [nitrox] [ In reply to ]
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You have many many weeks to go. I break the race into three segments: 10 mi 10 mi & 10k. First 10: no hurry try to not run faster than goal pace & preferably 10 sec slower. Next 10: pace. It should feel decent. Last 10k: What do your legs have left?
Your next 3 or 4 long runs & 3 or 4 pace runs should tell you a lot. If 20 mi @ 10 percent slower than goal pace doesn't beat you up & 10 miles @ goal pace 3 or 4 days later doesn't hurt too much you are getting there ...
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Re: Help me run a smart marathon [ziggie204] [ In reply to ]
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Given the OPs half marathon times and current mileage, I just don't see time being left on the table. I just don't think he's got enough mileage to run a time predicted by Daniels.
Not being negative nancy, just a realist.
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