Login required to started new threads

Login required to post replies

Prev Next
Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions
Quote | Reply
Whelps, i'm on my way towards my 5th 140.6. i chose IMMD for 2 reasons. it's a fall race, which means i have spring and summer to train (i ice climb, so i pretty much don't do anything but get fat over the winter) and i have 25 other teammates doing it.

few things about me. i'm 30, 127.5lbs and about 9-10% bodyfat. i have started 4 previous 140.6 distances and my goal this time is to break the 10 hr barrier. it's a long shot as i realize i'm much more likely to be in the 10:15-10:30 range.

history: i started running in 2007 because i rescued a dog and i thought it was the thing to do. 1 mile turned into 13 and so on. i did my first sprint tri and did the same sprint tri for 3 years. i ran my first marathon in 2009 (3:40, boston) and then i cycled cross country. in high school i played soccer, tennis and wrestled but quit all sports by the end of junior year and just played paintball.

i did my first half iron in 2009 and was somewhere in the 6:50 range. the swim took me 1:17. in 2010 i did the same half iron with 2 weeks training and did 6hrs, i did a half iron 2 weeks after that and PR'ed at 5:26 (did the half marathon in 1:39, my open half PR is 1:36 on a similar course).

i did my first IMLP in 2011 with patriot half as a tuneup which i completed in 5:4x. IMLP was 12:49 done on a road bike with aero bars. marathon was difficult for me. total was 25 weeks training at 6.28 hours average i believe

i did my IMWI in 2013, did 12 weeks of training averaging 12.XX hours. time was 11:49.

dec of 2013 i did IMCoz and finished in 10:54 (shortened swim and severely sun burnt)

i signed up for coaching and did a 12 week plan for CAC in 2014. i took 3 weeks off d/t travels (2 vacations, getting sick in india) and dropped out of the marathon at mile 11 because i didn't want to break 13 hours for a race (physically i was not bad, mentally i was quitting at mile 70 on the bike because all of my food fell out of my pockets).

as of now i am 7 weeks into training. i've done 3 100 mile rides and followed them with an at least 2-3 mile run. (i've never done a century for my previous ironmans).

i've averaged 19.13, 14.18, 17.55, 16.18, 21.36 and 16.46 so far (this week concludes after tomorrow's century ride. so far i'm at 10.18hrs and tomorrows ride should at 5.5hrs and i plan to run 3 miles at night at an easy pace totalling 16.18hrs)

my weakness is the swim and i don't focus much on it, i just swim enough to get by (i start next week). my goal is to get out of the water in 1:15.

i've done a few open marathons, none of them with any serious training. my open marathon times are 3:40, 3:38, 3:45, 3:50. my IM marathon times are 4:50 (first time), 4:00, 3:50.

unlike the past i am putting in real hours in training, i've also been doing some (every other week) speed work. i also plan on using better tires for racing (whatever folks here suggest, latex tubes, more aero bta bottle and a wheel cover to reduce drag and maybe even organize all my cables better). i also plan on shedding a few more lbs and getting down to 124 to help improve on the run. i'm 5'3" so don't be so alarmed by the weight. i started the year off at 142 and have slowly shed the weight over the past 5 months. i also boulder indoors 2x per week as my cross training/core training.

who thinks i have a chance at going sub 10?

as for the questions. is there anything anyone else would recommend to help me shed time/gain watts on the bike? i feel this is where i can make the most time. i've never averaged more than 19.8 on the bike but i've never felt like i pushed the pace too hard.

another question i have is regarding ftp. i did a 20 min test today and my NP was 214 (multiplying by .95 gets me 203 which seems awfully low, putting me at about 3.52 w/kg). my 20min power for my last century was 193, this was after riding 40 miles at a decent pace and still feeling good by the time i finished). i wasn't pushing hard enough for the first 10 minutes, but the last 5 minutes i was hurting pretty badly. is it me or does that just seem off that i can ride 5% lower than threshold for 20 minutes in the middle of a century ride?

i don't post much on ST but i'm a longtime reader. any suggestions would help, esp from devpaul, jackmott etc.

bests,

john
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [ahhchon] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
so i did a 110 mile ride with over 6700ft of climbing. my 20 min best power was 201watts and it was after the big climb. does this make sense?

i did a ftp tests (then added 90 mins on the trainer last night) getting 204 watts for my ftp. yet i go out, ride 110 and have 20 min best average at 201 watts? clearly this shows that my ftp should be higher, right?

any advice/input would be appreciated.
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [ahhchon] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Why don't you do your test outdoors if you have issues going hard on the trainer. Pick a long climb of 20+ minutes and go hard till you puke :) What was your avg power on that 110mi ride?
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [ahhchon] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
if you think your test is low, easy: test again and push harder!.....if swimming is not your strong point get more swims in, just did eagleman: there are currents and chop so be ready. good luck, see you down there. oh and 3.5 w/kg is not that bad a lot of people train a lot more then you and can't hit 3.5

2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [BBLOEHR] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
normalized power was 167 for the ride.

honestly, i've trained a lot for swimming and got 5 mins faster. i'm a bad swimmer, but can probably do 1:20 at IMMD. the time it takes for me to get to 1:10 i can shave 25 mins off the bike and another 15-20 off the run.

i realize i'll eventually have to work on my swim, but i figure i'll wait until i can get my bike down towards the sub 5:15 and run sub 3:25.

it was low (what i feel) but i thought i was going to puke that last 5 mins. could it be something i'm doing wrong with the KK? i'll probably head back to mt wachusett to do an ftp test. the climb was about 5 miles and averaged about 6% peaking at 14%. would you warm up for that ride like you would a regular ftp test? 20 min ride, 5 min hard, 10 min easy 20mins ftp on the climb?

thanks again!
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [ahhchon] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
so i was looking back on a climb i did last year? it was 3.3 miles long and took me 18:51. it was also 19 miles into a ride that was rolling hills.

i recall the climb quite well. it was a fun climb where this roadie latched onto me so i just kept pushing the pace. i can't say i was junk as i rode home afterwards and i recall wishing there was more climbing.

my average watts for that segment was 257. granted it's not a full 20 minute test and i was not taking it easy prior to that. would it safe to assume that i could keep that pace for another 69 seconds? and if it is that would give me:

257/56.925842 = 4.51 w/kg.

is it normal that for my best IM bike pace my average watts to be 167?

i just rode 101 today with 3700+ feet climbing. 130bpm with average power of 135w.

am i really 4.51w/kg or is something funky? i feel like 4.51 w/kg guys should be crushing IM bike courses. i think my best time is like 5:40? (looking to go 5:10 and under at IMMD this fall.
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [ahhchon] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Have you tried Best Bike Split? Just plug in your numbers and see what wattage will it take to go low 5h on that course. It seems like you should be able to pull it off but you're also very light and on flat courses W/kg is not the best performance predictor; in general more watts (regardless of weight) will mean faster times. It doesn't seem like there is any significant climbing on that course.
Seriously, just try BBS (http://www.bestbikesplit.com) and see what it will take for someone like you (height, weight, equipment etc...). Don't obsess about FTP, just because your FTP is a certain # it doesn't mean that you will automatically be capable of riding a % of it and run well. Use your best 5h power of 169W as a starting point and go from there... Evaluate how you feel after each long ride, do a short 30 min run to see how the legs are moving. Experiment with nutrition, # of calories, caffeine, timing etc... and fine tune it every time.

4.5 w/k guys should be crushing IM courses.
IMMD seems to be a very fast course. I'm 4 w/kg at 70kg and for me a .72 IF or 200NP on that course should get me around 4h 45m... While the same watts at IMFL would be 4:50.
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [sp1ke] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
spike,

greatly appreciate the response. i've tried bbs and i got something like 5:45. seems way off. i can pretty much do 5:45 on a course with 5k feet of climbing, let alone being almost pancake flat. there are also a ton of factors on bbs that i'm just not too certain about. all the measurements etc. cda? whatever that is....

the problem with me is that i don't think i'm very aero on mysetup. i've been professionally fit by a pretty reputable shop around here (they are well awarded and pretty well known in new england) so i'm not sure that's my problem. my fit just doesn't pass the "eye test" regarding aerodynamics. in fact when i'm on flat ground and pushing watts (i know this is going to sound really stupid) but i feel that the drag is what's keeping me out of that next 1-2mph. i just feel i should be a bit more slippery standing at 5'3" and 125.5lbs....

i'll try bbs again and see what happens.

john
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [sp1ke] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
https://www.bestbikesplit.com/public-race?r=22370


i got that using an IF of 75 (i've ridden at 79 at CAC, my other IM IF's were 71, 73 and 76)

but using the 5 hour ftp of 169 i got 5 hours 8 mins. i gotta find my fit measurements and plug that stuff in as well as weigh my bike (not sure how much of a difference that makes, i put down 19lbs for shits and giggles).

john

Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [ahhchon] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Cool, sounds like your close to your goal. To estimate cda you can also use a previous race, upload the course and tweak the bbs estimated cda until the predicted time matches your actual time. Assuming power,weight, equipment, weather conditions etc... match.
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [ahhchon] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
11:28
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [nickwhite] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
nickwhite wrote:
11:28

ouch!
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [ahhchon] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
11:45.

You state your swim is "weak" and haven't been swimming in awhile?. IMMD will likely feature chop and current that will slow down if not panic untrained/unprepared swimmers. I question your ability to get out of the water in 1:15 with a significant chop, current and mobs of other swimmers. Would 1:20+ be realistic?

Most of your post details your biking skills/history, ftp values and some mental draining incidents. Could the IMMD bike course feature long stretches of headwinds? A draft fest that doesn't include you? A marathon run history that is average. Then you better not over bike. There is a lot of guess when trying to convert a 20 minute ftp test into a 112 mile ride. Would 6 hours 05 minutes be realistic?

Running in the sun can cook the best of us. Is the run course at IMMD shaded? Would 4 hours 5 minutes be realistic?

Add 15 minutes to the transitions.

Good luck.
Last edited by: Billyk24: Aug 2, 15 6:42
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [Billyk24] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
another ouch!

i started swim training recently. been putting in about 1.5 miles a week and have 2 half irons in august to test where i am at. figure i have 8 weeks to ramp up my swimming. that puts me right on par with my other races. as long as i get 3-4x a week i should be ok. the talk about the chop is unsettling. fair to say i might be 1:20-1:25 if it is a choppy day. IMWI was windy/chopping in 2013 and i swam a 1:29 with much less swim training than i plan on doing.

i plan to be decent at the long flat boring stretches. hopefully my ability to zone out in thought will help me. a windy day could change that for sure, but there is nothing i can do about that. history says 7mph winds on average on a day like that. i hope there are not a lot of draft packs. it really hurt me at cozumel fighting all of them. i would surge to pull ahead, then get pulled back. it really killed me for the 3rd lap.

as for the marathon, i don't see myself running over 4 in any way, shape or form. i've run 9 marathons and i've gone over 4 hours once (disney, running next to my gf for her first).

def interesting seeing what people think i'll do for a time. def slower than i expected, which is interesting. lots to learn still.
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [ahhchon] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
FTP varies over time. It goes up. It goes down.

If you did 20 minutes at a certain wattage a year ago, then it might be useful for determining where to set your zones.... a year ago.

If you did a 20 minute power test recently and figured it out to give you a threshold of 203, then so be it, although you should use AP and not NP for this math.

Doing 5% below threshold for 20 minutes should not be too much to ask in the middle of a century ride if you were otherwise not going hard.

You could just put all your rides into Golden Cheetah and use one of their 4 FTP estimators, or use the Strava one which I think is the 2-point Monod calculation. That one works fine as long as it isn't skewed with a really high number for short-duration power
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [ahhchon] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
So I did IMWI in 2013 too, with a 11h 20' finish time and then last year I did IMMD with a finish time of 10h 09' so this may give you some point of reference.

I believe in WI I did a 1h 27' swim and in MD 1h 18', but for MD I had put a ton more work into my swim training. My guess and that of others was that the swim in MD was long and therefore, slow. THere is definitely a risk of chop in the Choptank river. I would say, don't underestimate the swim and for similar training expect to be similar or slower than IMWI.

I did a 4h 45' bike at IMMD with somewhere around 240 watts average. For the most part the course is great, but there are some chipseal sections near the end of the loop. Last year we were lucky it wasn't too windy but expect the potential for the course to be drastically tougher on a windy day. I did 5h 35' for the bike in WI but that was also with much less training and fitness.

Run was 3h 57' in MD (I think 4h 04' in WI) vs an open marathon of 3h 41h but I have only done one open marathon and that was 5 weeks after IMWI without doing any running between IMWI and the marathon itself. So not sure how representative it is an open marathon.

Comparing you vs me, we may be somewhat similar on swim and run but I think you will be slower on the bike. Given similar weather conditions I'd say 10h 30'... on a windy day quite a bit higher (11h)..


_____________________
Don't forget to attack!
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [Cobble] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
cobble,

thanks. that gave me good perspective. maybe i should get that extra swim in every week, haha.

i don't need to have a great swim time. i just need to come out of the water not completely destroyed. i came out of the water at wisconsin completely wiped. my arms were tired, my low back was sore. it def took about 5 miles on the bike to recover. my bike fitness is without a doubt better than it was in 2013. so hopefully that'll translate well. most of my riding around here is without wind. but i've been doing courses with elevation to compensate for that. not sure it's the best, but it's better than nothing. probably a bit more time holding 70-75% ftp on the trainer will translate well for IMMD course.

i totally have my fingers crossed for a non windy day. i'm not worried about anything, sun, rain, snow, hills etc. it's wind that scares me the most since i'm only 124ish soaking wet on race day.

john
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [ahhchon] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
You haven't started your swim training and you want to come out of the water not "dead"? That is for a 2.4 mile swim that could get "messy" with chop and currents. There a major potential problem here if one thinks a couple months of swimming is going to be a solution. I sign off and fade away wishing you the best of luck.
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [ahhchon] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
First, do not use NP from 20 minutes to figure out you FTP, you need to use average power. NP much less meaningful below 30 minutes.

Second, do not use a ride from a year ago to figure out your current FTP. Seriously, it can tell you your FTP a year ago, but not what it is now. Use recent data.

Third, a real good way to get a goal power for an ironman would be to ride 100 miles and average set power then do a short run after and see if that power makes sense. Remember to always include zeros and do not use auto pause. I say this because lets say during this trail you average 200 watts and five hours, but you stopped for 15 minutes for water/eat/stop signs (all of those breaks can easily add up), if you stop data during this ride if makes you think you can ride 200 watts for 5 hours, but really you only averaged closer to 190 watts. Now if you race and hold 200, you may over bike, because you should have been averaging 190.

Fourth, I have much more difficult time getting the same power numbers indoors as outdoors. Maybe you are the same.

Fifth, as AC says, "Training is testing and testing is training." You do not need to do specific tests. Have rides where you focus on really nailing shorter intervals ~5min. Have other rides where you go for max average power between 20 and 30 minutes. Have other rides where you are trying to average power for over an hour. These are just approximate. But what you are doing is filling out your mean maximal power curves and you can use these to predict your FTP. If you get good quality data for the MMP, it is very good. I also reference to see where my best ~1 hour NP from a hard 1 hour ride I do in training frequently. It corresponds well to where the MMP says my hour power should be.
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [chaparral] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
8 weeks is all i need to survive it without feeling destroyed. i've never trained more than 12 weeks for any of my previous 4 ironmans. this time i'll have 16 weeks (17 including race week). so the way i look at things, i'm ahead of the game.

as of using data a year ago. i'm not using it for my ftp. i just brought it up. a year ago i did it and at the point of that ride i had not ridden my bike for over a month, not to mention i hadn't run in a few weeks. just saying, it's interesting, that is all.

i do plan on doing a 100 mile ride probably the week after timberman and prior to oob to see what numbers i put up for such a ride. i always do a brick after my long rides on saturdays. at least 3 miles, but usually 4-6 miles.

thanks for the info chapparal.

a tad bit of extra info.

i just got back from my swim and as of today i have. 22.25 hours for my 9th week.

19.13, 14.18, 17.55, 16.18, 21.36, 16.46, 15.62, 15.35, 22.25. next week i'll prob do a shorter week in terms of hours and up the intensity. prob 16ish hours (i'm bike touring on sat, so it'll be a slow 100 mile day)...

i'll do another ftp test wednesday, this time outdoors. there is a decent road near my place that is about 2.5 miles long, i can probably ride it back and forth a few times to make a total of 20 mins.

god, you guys are making me all nervous about this swim. better up it to 4 times a week by the end of august. ha ha.
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [sp1ke] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
sp1ke wrote:
Cool, sounds like your close to your goal. To estimate cda you can also use a previous race, upload the course and tweak the bbs estimated cda until the predicted time matches your actual time. Assuming power,weight, equipment, weather conditions etc... match.

spike. i read on another thread your comment about negative splitting the race.

i didn't want to hijack, so i'm coming back here.

at 124lbs (honestly, at the rate i'm going i might even be 122lbs by race day, but in august i plan on adding some squats and lunges to bulk up the legs a bit). and 8:00 pace i'm looking at 178 watts for the run.

according to bbs my wattage to ride a 5:08 is 172.. is that too close, or should i be dropping down to 165 so i don't "blow up on the run".

i also want to point out.. i am a 1:36 half mary runner on a very hilly course. my open marathon is 3:39 but never with sig training volume. it might surprise many that my IM marathon time is 3:54 with juice to spare, this is after feeling very bad on the bike.

i'm hoping to pace maryland better. this weekend i plan on doing ironman simulation. 5 hour ride holding 145-150 watts (yes, 145, not 170. for some reason my perceived fatigue is always higher indoors than outdoors. i can ride 99rpm at 160 watts all day outside, but inside i can't hold 160 for more than 2 hours). then run 45 mins off the bike at ironman pace just to see how i feel. i'm pretty confident i'll feel pretty good, but we'll see.

any other suggestions to help me reach my goals? i'm hoping sub 10 but i know it's a real stretch. anything under 10:25 and i'll be pretty happy. (despite many expecting me to do much worse)

john
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [ahhchon] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
That's a very interesting series of articles isn't it. I just started reading those a couple of weeks ago and running through the other posts on his blog and his various calculators, the data seems to add up pretty well. I'm also doing IMMT next week and it happened that my pacing strategy was pretty much in the ballpark of what the article suggests it should be. I guess I'll find out soon.
I train inside a lot and my numbers are pretty much the same indoors and outdoors. I've done 75% of my long rides indoors in the last 16 weeks :)
In your case I would suggest that you do your key sessions outdoors to simulate race conditions as much as possible. Just go and push 170W and see what happens on the run. Going sub 10 will be HARD and if you have any chance of doing that you need to bet it all on the run. So... maybe it makes sense to go easier on the bike and give yourself the best chance to execute the run. You need to get off that bike and be fresh!

Are there any equipment changes you could still make to get some additional "free" speed? Tire selection, tubes, rear disc, a good aero suit, helmet etc... Maybe you could tweak your position a little bit.
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [sp1ke] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
well with bbs i already added latex tubes and a rear disc cover (disc cover is purchased, latex tubes i'll have the shop install before the race, as i've never done it and don't want to risk flatting it). i'll also research on what kind of tires i should purchase. i know tubulars are probably faster, but i don't have tubular wheels.

i guess i could also rent a zip 909 front, but i think the gains are pretty marginal compared to the 50mm rims i have right now. plus if there is any wind, it'll hurt me as i'm a little guy.

i've also not figured out a good riding psi. at 126lbs soaking wet i used to ride at 105, then 100, now more recently 90. i'm not exactly sure what psi is the best for someone my size....

i ride rudy wingspan, not really interested in spending 150+ for a new helmet though.
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [ahhchon] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Tires: best bet is Conti GP4000s or Conti Grand Prix Supersonic. CRR is what matters, see more here http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
Tire pressure: you should be somewhere around 90 at your weight (see here: http://flocycling.blogspot.com/...g-tire-pressure.html)
Quote Reply
Re: Guess my IMMD time and answer my ftp questions [ahhchon] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
I did IMMD last year, the estimate on Best Bike Split was 5 mins slower than what i actually rode that day (4:52 on 201w average at 175lbs.) The absolute best piece of advice I can give you is to fix the bike fit NOW, and ride in the aerobars 100% of the time, all the time, every time. You will not need to come out of aero on that course unless you're grabbing a bottle handup, and at your size you should be able to get small & slippery. flat back, narrow elbows, low head. I rode super easy (66% of FTP) with the intent of running well, and that course is so flat it allows you to pick a gear/power output and just ride it. figure out the latex tubes & tires, buy or borrow the deepest wheels/disc, get aero.

second piece of advice is to not ignore the swim. that swim is tough, it can be choppy and there can be current. We were swimming into the tide last year right out of the gate and didnt get a return push since the return path is sheltered by the marina. So my swim was 12 mins slower than lake placid on equal or better swim training, and other times were similarly slow. keep consistent with the swim training especially in the last two weeks leading up to the race when you're tapering bike & run.

The run is flat as a pancake and not super exposed, in October it should lend for fast times, but i would not purposely try to lose weight for it. Ride your bike more and that will take care of itself!
Quote Reply

Prev Next