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Garmin race predictor
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Went through the Garmin LT test this morning. Results were 168 HR / 7:16 pace.

Race predictor numbers look sky high. 1:28 for a 13.1, which would be a ~6:45 pace. Doesn't seem possible that I could hold a sub-threshold pace for that long. Once I top 170 HR I start to fade fast.

Maybe I'm just getting old and not willing to suffer like Garmin thinks I can.
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Re: Garmin race predictor [wcb] [ In reply to ]
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I have always found the race predictor to be optimistic. The projected marathon time for me looks about 10 minutes too fast (FWIW).
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Re: Garmin race predictor [wcb] [ In reply to ]
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wcb wrote:
Went through the Garmin LT test this morning. Results were 168 HR / 7:16 pace.

Race predictor numbers look sky high. 1:28 for a 13.1, which would be a ~6:45 pace. Doesn't seem possible that I could hold a sub-threshold pace for that long. Once I top 170 HR I start to fade fast.

Maybe I'm just getting old and not willing to suffer like Garmin thinks I can.

It is cute, I am sure there is some legit science to it, but it is one of those features that people love to look at and gloat and give a warm and fuzzy feeling which then sells devices. I don't and won't rely on it. I turn most of those features off outside of the very basics.


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Re: Garmin race predictor [wcb] [ In reply to ]
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how old are you?

This 7:16 lactate pace, this is what you could hold for 1 hour and your heart rate? I guess I never considered it would be possible to run this slow with a 168 heart rate (in the sense you are fit enough to be talking about running a HM, so you are at least somewhat trained). 7:16 objectively is not slow per se, I'm just thinking about what kind of pace I would hold in a HM with a HR of 168 (which at this point is not too far from my lactate pace).

Do people run like 24:00 minute 5Ks, but actually hold heart rates in the 160s or 170s? (this question is not directed at the OP, just a general question). I guess I have always assumed that people run slow paces in a race because they either a) lack the fitness to actually exert themselves very much (can't get heart rate up and actually hold it) or b) they are just carrying a lot of extra weight, which results in a slow pace every if they have the fitness to really exert themselves.
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Re: Garmin race predictor [tri_yoda] [ In reply to ]
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Yes, there are def plenty (?most) folks who run 24:xx on sky-high 90+% all-out VO2max type HRs despite the 'slow' pace.

It's harder for the older (60+) crowd to do that since their max HR is a lot lower than the youngsters.
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Re: Garmin race predictor [tri_yoda] [ In reply to ]
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tri_yoda wrote:
I guess I never considered it would be possible to run this slow with a 168 heart rate

Oh, my ego! :-)
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Re: Garmin race predictor [tri_yoda] [ In reply to ]
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Heart rates are personal, in that some people naturally have lower/higher max heart rates than others. In that context a specific heart beat is irrelevant. What is more relevant is the %age of HRmax/peak, HRreserve, VO2max/peak etc that any individual can attain and maintain for any given period of time. I'd be lucky to reach 168, never mind hold it, but I can run sub 23 min 5K with HR around 152.

Trust me I’m a doctor!
Well, I have a PhD :-)
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Re: Garmin race predictor [Thomas Gerlach] [ In reply to ]
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Thomas Gerlach wrote:
wcb wrote:
Went through the Garmin LT test this morning. Results were 168 HR / 7:16 pace.

Race predictor numbers look sky high. 1:28 for a 13.1, which would be a ~6:45 pace. Doesn't seem possible that I could hold a sub-threshold pace for that long. Once I top 170 HR I start to fade fast.

Maybe I'm just getting old and not willing to suffer like Garmin thinks I can.


It is cute, I am sure there is some legit science to it, but it is one of those features that people love to look at and gloat and give a warm and fuzzy feeling which then sells devices. I don't and won't rely on it. I turn most of those features off outside of the very basics.

If you look at it as your race potential predictor instead of your actually not that way off.
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Re: Garmin race predictor [wcb] [ In reply to ]
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The garmin race predictor is way off. In turn, I find Daniels calculator to be very very close.


wcb wrote:
Went through the Garmin LT test this morning. Results were 168 HR / 7:16 pace.

Race predictor numbers look sky high. 1:28 for a 13.1, which would be a ~6:45 pace. Doesn't seem possible that I could hold a sub-threshold pace for that long. Once I top 170 HR I start to fade fast.

Maybe I'm just getting old and not willing to suffer like Garmin thinks I can.
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Re: Garmin race predictor [PhilipShambrook] [ In reply to ]
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PhilipShambrook wrote:
] I can run sub 23 min 5K with HR around 152.

I find this interesting or at least this was the kind of comparison I was looking for. Objectively this seems like a pretty good pace for a 152 HR; my 5K HR would probably be more like 172-174, however if I was trying to run a 5K in around 23 minutes (~7:00 pace), my HR would probably be around 140-142, which is not that different than yours. I am almost 42 years old.

What is your HR for an easy aerobic run and what is your age? I guess there are other factors like weight and stuff.

Mostly my question had to do with is there much "average" data available in terms of what kinds of paces people run at different HRs, adjusted for age, weight and sex? My max heart has roughly followed the 220- age guideline, so I assume I am about average in terms of max HR, but I would be interested to see a distribution.
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Re: Garmin race predictor [tri_yoda] [ In reply to ]
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60y, 166cm and 80kg. I'm not fat, just well-built LOL! Cruising at around 5:30/km on the flat I'm around 130 to 135.

10bpm difference can be quite significant depending on your physiology. I have a resting HR around 47 and max around 167 (does not follow 220-age) so HRR is 120. That means when I'm running my sub-23min 5km I'm nearly at 88% HRRmax (slightly over 91% HRmax).

What you need to do is to work out what works for you.

Trust me I’m a doctor!
Well, I have a PhD :-)
Last edited by: PhilipShambrook: Feb 15, 17 13:31
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Re: Garmin race predictor [wcb] [ In reply to ]
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The Garmin race predictor on my 920XT currently predicts the following for me:
5km: 19:59
10km: 41:27
Half: 1:31:46
Marathon: 3:11:12

I don't currently have the volume to run a good Half or finish a Marathon but if I did, here's my best guesses at for what I could actually do if I went out this week and raced these distances:

5km: 21:30
10km: 45:30
Half: 1:44:00
Marathon: 3:50:00

There's no way I could come close to those predicted race times!
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Re: Garmin race predictor [tri_yoda] [ In reply to ]
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Yoda,

I'm 47 and just completed a run assessment. 5k 20:20 with my avg HR 184. Mile 1 HR 177, Mile 2, HR 188, Mile 3 HR 191.

I've been competing for 9 yrs or so. My HR has always shot up quickly and stayed high. 2yrs ago half marathon HR avg was 183 @
45yo with a 6:52/mi avg.

It's interesting how the HR is drastically different between each individual.
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Re: Garmin race predictor [gaaugustine] [ In reply to ]
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I don't have much confidence in the race predictor, says my 5K would be 19:11, PR is 20:32 like 5 years ago, has my 10K time at 39:48 and my HM at 1:28:04. That HM time is crazy, PR is 1:39:xx
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Re: Garmin race predictor [wcb] [ In reply to ]
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wcb wrote:
Went through the Garmin LT test this morning. Results were 168 HR / 7:16 pace.

Race predictor numbers look sky high. 1:28 for a 13.1, which would be a ~6:45 pace. Doesn't seem possible that I could hold a sub-threshold pace for that long. Once I top 170 HR I start to fade fast.

Maybe I'm just getting old and not willing to suffer like Garmin thinks I can.

Ran a 1:45 half today and quite proud of it. Yeah, that prediction was a little aggressive.
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