Not entirely sure that's true. Contador couldn't give a toss about a TdF podium having won it several times, and was attacking all over the shop. Just no longer had the legs or team to back it up. Quintana has 3 TdF podiums already, if he saw a chance to go for a win he's not going to play it safe to protect yet another podium, but again he just doesn't seem to have the climbing form that he did a couple of years ago. I think a 2014-15 era Quintana would have done a lot more damage to Dumoulin in the mountains and won this year's Giro.

I think it's more the case that the Tour is the one race where all the strongest contenders show up peaked and with their strongest team, and that strength in depth makes it very difficult to make attacks stick, which leads to what appears to be more conservative racing.

Correct, but that is not a CF problem. In a way the big riders through history have always had that tactical advantage. In a way, his previous victories, dictate how his rivals work. Yes, Astana, and other riders you mentioned aided him, but that is how the race played out. The tactics are different when the Tour had Padrone. When the race is up for grabs, seemingly smarter tactics prevail. It has mostly played out this way, from Anquetil , Merckx, Hinault...What made the '89 tour so great was that Fignon and Lemond were truly fighting it out. The race did not have true leader till the final day. Riders are scared of the big champ landing a counter punch.

The 89 TdF's leaders were neither Lemond nor Fignon, but the engineers in Sun Valley Idaho:







8 seconds after 21 days in the saddle, thanks to some good old fashioned American engineered aerodynamics born from guys on 2 boards going downhill on snow figuring out low is not as good as narrow and low....and then moving that over to the bike!

Getting my thread that i just hijacked back on track. I think that Quintana was "fatter" than his domination climbing days. To me he seems more filled out muscularly than his early rookie days. I'd guestimate he is 3-5 lbs heavier. That's massive at this level, but maybe I am eyeballing wrong. He seems more built like FOP KQ athlete these days than the marathoner build he needs to have to climb at his best.

Well....the reason why Fignon started in yellow on the final day was how they raced in the mountains. Aero won the tour, but race ultimately was close because neither could outright win the race in the mountains.

Froome will win both Giro and TDF in 18 for two reasons: 1) extra week next year between Giro and TDF to recover which is a big deal; and 2) Team Sky train.

Yes Contador was willing to put his eggs onto the table and go all in. But as you wrote yourself he was not at his peak anymore during this years tour so was no real threat. But the young guns raced more for the podium than for the win. That is OK and I wouldn't blame them. But it does not make for the most interesting Tour.

Example: GC guy 4 attacks, guys 2 and 3 panick and close the gap immediately because they fear losing their spot. Froome (guy 1) only laughs because he can sit in let the others destroy themselves and then attack everyone when they are spent.

---

10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

This has been going on since time immemorial. It's cycling's version of the prisoner's dilemma. I'm sure Zulle, Riis, Jalabert, et. al. were all acting very similarly in 1995 when Indurain was on top.

---

Citizen of the world, former drunkard. Resident Traumatic Brain Injury advocate.

Ok, you might be true and I am too young. I grew up watching Schleck vs. Contador. But in the last years the giro was more open. But there usually wasn't one big imperium at the front.

---

10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

Team Sky docs have a bigger impact in my estimation.

---

Brian

Are we saying that British docs in this era or American docs in the Lance era had the upper card on the Spanish and Italian docs....oh wait, Postal used an Italian doc. There may be some available Russian docs since they won't be going to the winter olympics in Korea if there are any protour takers. I would think team Astana would have the inside line into those via the Russo-Khazakh connection.

Froome will get the double assuming no injury. He will likely try and come into the Giro like the tour last year, peak towards the end and carry the form into the tour. The Giro should be interesting, in particular if Landa decides that is his primary target. Porte will be the biggest danger in the tour, Bardet will never win, he simply bleeds too much time. I am assuming Quintana only races the tour this year?

I doubt it. The Giro/TdF hasn't been done in forever and hasn't been done since the Lance era and what I kind of consider a change in the sport of cycling began. When Lance made the TdF the ONLY important race instead of the MOST important race others have followed in suit. Unless the entire sport of cycling changes people are right when they say that winning the Giro will dig you too deep to win the Tour as well. Mostly because most of the other big guns are looking to the TdF and if you dig that deep to win the Giro then at LEAST one of them will beat you like a drum on the Alps and Pyranise. Of course stranger things have happened. And Froome has been Lance like and unbeatable these last few years. But my money says impossible.

---

I still lapped everyone on the couch!

In Draft Animals, Phil claims that riders will bribe each other into taking turns or helping across team boundaries to help someone else in the GC.

I can't see that happening among GC contenders themselves though. But I do wonder sometimes.

I almost think for simple believability you want Froome to not win both. Especially as the Giro has seemed to become a really challenging race early in the year and *no one* seems to race the Tour the same. But of course that probaly is the exact reason Sky/Froome want to do it. To *prove* their methods are untouchable.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

This exactly what I'm saying, how is uran & aru helping C.F. get to the front?! It's madness!!! Bardet would've ended up with a substantial GC leads forcing sky & C.F. to break themselves to make up that time & Aru & Uran tag-team C.F. & let the BETTER man of them 2 win; instead we ended with the same result!!!

Could you imagine that either Sebi or Lionel slowing down to let Frodo catch up & bear all of them on the run?! No, you could NOT... instead what happened was Frodo saw the train of wurf/sebi/Sanders & knew he couldn't just sit there & "hope for the best on the run" frodo abandoned his gamw plan, chased thwm down & greatly overbiked himseld unable to run!!!

The one thing nobody really counted on was on Lange to have such an amazing run! Frodo spell is broken & now it's all about breaking Lange without breaking themselves & turning kona into abike race instead (or so it works in my lil pea size brain) 😆😆😆🤘🤘🤘

---

Speed kills unless you have speed skills!!!

Doctors? Why would young active men that spend their days at fresh air need any docor?

Oh, wait... There is this asthma thing.

---

10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

It's either coloured lenses or memory, but you're very much mistaken. Three times did Landa have to actually stop pedalling in the mountains to wait for Froome because he faded BADLY. Actually, had Landa put in a bit more effort in the prologue and not waited for Froome, it would have been a mathematical inevitability that he would end up with the maillot jeune.

100%. I've seen this theory out there right from when it was obvious that he wasn't in as good a shape as Dumoulin and I think Occam's Razor applies here. Movistar screwed up planning by missing the mark on Quintana's form, hoping that ~90% peak was enough to snag the Pink Jersey in Italy (major mistake #1), hoping he could peak again but at 100% and contend for the Yellow at the TdF. And we all know how that turned out.

Well, I don't think anyone really knows what those few Landa accelerations mean or not. I doubt Landa breaks top 5 in any grand tour next year with Movistar. They will manage to screw it all up. There is a reason why everyone who leaves being Froome's domestique can't beat him when they go to another team....they just are not as good as him....or Sky's "system" is better, but nothing stopping Richie Porte from implementing the same at BMC.

The reason why I say we did not see Froome's top form at the TdF is if you look at his performance at the Dauphine 2017 vs Dauphine 2016. That tells our full story in my view. Froome's form was timed later....instead to bagging the Dauphine + TdF double and getting 2nd in the Vuelta, he was off the podium at Dauphine was less dominant at the TdF and more strong at the Vuelta. I don't think a few Landa surges proves the full picture of Froome's fitness/form through the summer. Even the Marseilles ITT he just did enough to keep the win. With all due respect to Bodnar who won that ITT, when Froome is going full throttle, he should beat Bodnar especially an ITT with a decent 1K 10% grade in the middle.

Accelerations? Please rewatch those moments, how easily Landa was taking off, how far away he was and what he had to do when he was obviously ordered to wait for Froome. Oh, and pay attention to how drained he was in all three moments. He was done and Landa wasn't breaking a sweat.

That said, I do agree with your predictions regarding Landa. They're already showing their 'talent' in managing the egos and placements regarding the different tours.

You're fixating on a few Landa moments, but then why was he relatively so poor in the TT. OK so Landa rides away from Froome AND EVERYONE a few times. That still does not paint the full picture over 21 days on who was the better overall rider. Landa still lost 45 second to Froome on the final TT. If he goes nuts on all those accelerations, and gets free reign, it's not that he magically makes up the 2:21 gap to Froome in Paris. If he did go harder on some of those days he would pay the next day or the day after. Sky probably did him a favor by holding him back on some of those days, or he'd be toast the next day or 2 days later and maybe end up 10th on GC after cracking on a bad day.

Let's see what Landa can pull of a Movistar, but it's going to be the same gong show there next year since Quintana is going to want to be team leader the Tour and it might be a good shot for Quintana given Froome doing the double. Speaking of the double, I still question Landa's miracle form at the TdF after the Giro (and I get he did not go full throttle every day, but still seems not normal).