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Frodo to Kona T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49),
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OK, Frodo's results for swim+bike and positions the last 3 year rolling back 2016, 2015, 2014.....Frodo's always second out of the water and then in striking distance off the bike (unless of course he flats and gets a penalty like back in 2014). So now that we have beaten the Frodo run thread to death, with the big X on his back, looks like the we will see him basically repeat what he does to T2....get to T1 in second, and then toy around with everyone for 112 miles, mess around with their heads and let them burn all kinds of matches trying to surge/break/attack and then get to T2 within striking range of all the overbikers....well unless Lange employs pretty well the same strategy and comes in just behind Frodo. Basically everyone else other than these two have to roll the dice and put the hammer down at some point on the swim-bike (remember the year Kienle overswam and stayed with the front pack on the swim and was cooked on the bike).

I think with Frodo's swim strength, it get's into the heads of everyone. They all probably over swim a bit and over bike early just to stay close to him because they are afraid of the train to T2 leaving right after Palani on the bike and missing the entire thing. Meanwhile Frodo can swim in cruise control and just wait around for all of these guys to burn matches and pick him up and then he can bike even easier sitting legally while these guys try to break him.

So Monty, being the Kona course swim expert, what's the analysis of how much all these guys overcook the swim and overcook it early in the bike?
Last edited by: devashish_paul: Oct 11, 17 16:29
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Re: Frodo to T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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So Monty, being the Kona course swim expert, what's the analysis of how much all these guys overcook the swim and overcook it early in the bike? //

Actually thinking back he does not take the swim easy and just sit on, he fights and tries to win the dam thing. Last year was Harry, one of the other years I remember him drag racing with Potts. I was thinking at the time this guy loves to compete and wants to win every part of this dam race. He should sit on and just take a free ride the entire way, let someone else waltz to the swim prime, but he doesn't.


And as for the bike, he is a great biker, maybe we don't know how good really. But I do believe he is not the "best" biker out there, so ascribing those who are faster than him some blow up strategy is not giving them their do. Yes a lot of guys will over bike the course, but some guys should, as that is what they have trained to do and still be able to run well.


People like to think if only the racers would just pace for their perfect race they would get their fastest time. That may or may not be true, but that does not take into account what someones actions do to the race and in particular what it does to your direct competitors. Perhaps Lionel is the worlds best at overbiking and still being able to run well, but someone that keyed their race after his ride is not so good. We use to call it taking the run legs out of the runners.


Remember this is not a race for time, but for place. I think that is why so many are willing to gamble their paces and hope that this is the day for a break through. If you just sit on power and pace you know you can do, well that is safe and you will have a pretty good time. But if you really want to win or place high, you better be riding with that 25 man train out there at some point because they are not all going to blow up..
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Re: Frodo to T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Frodo's tactics are the same as The Grip and we know how that worked out. No one beats Frodo!
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Re: Frodo to T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [johnnybefit] [ In reply to ]
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johnnybefit wrote:
Frodo's tactics are the same as The Grip and we know how that worked out. No one beats Frodo!


As I was writing this thread, I was thinking it is basically the Mark Allen strategy....or maybe the Dave Scott strategy that Mark Allen decided to copy rather than overbiking and getting passed by Dave every time! But maybe Lange can out Frodo/out Mark/out Dave with that run capability given that his swim and bike are very solid like everyone above?
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Re: Frodo to T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [monty] [ In reply to ]
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So do you think that Frodo just keeps a cap on the run and only follows surges to an extent, but when suicide mode kicks in that he just chooses to let it go, knowing that he has the run strength on them? It almost feels like Frodo could "choose" to bike 4:20 and run slower it he chose to and roll the dice that he can win that way? For example it "feels" like he could just choose to wait for Wurf and stalk him all the way to T2 and come out of the bike with his entire swim lead and more if he wanted to roll with that?

Do you think that Frodo could swim with Amberger if he tried hard enough, or not chance?
Last edited by: devashish_paul: Oct 11, 17 16:30
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Re: Frodo to T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Jan can swim with anyone in the race if he wants, and I don't see any reason he wouldn't. It is nice to be out on the bike 1st where you can settle in and let the race form around you. Besides if he drops off he will likely have to pull whatever is left, doing the same work as if he drafted a faster guy. Like some of his countrymen before him, he does not need to lead the entire race the entire way, like Wolfgang or Faris.

But for some stinking reason he wants to win that swim prime, and as I think about that perhaps without knowing the actual time they are swimming, you could be putting your name in the record books? Now that the course is 200m shorter someone one is going to break Lars record one of these days when the conditions are perfect. But he guns it like the swim is the finish of the race every year, I love it!!

He is going to be worried this year and I bet he is not going to use a Mark Allen strategy of just sticking with Lange. I think this will be Lange's tactic, it should be up to some point where he just thinks it is too much. But keep in mind in the old wars that Mark was the better biker than Dave, or at least rode like he was. And it was his undoing riding on PE instead of HR, usually putting a lot of minutes into the group to T2.
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Re: Frodo to T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
Jan can swim with anyone in the race if he wants, and I don't see any reason he wouldn't. It is nice to be out on the bike 1st where you can settle in and let the race form around you. Besides if he drops off he will likely have to pull whatever is left, doing the same work as if he drafted a faster guy. Like some of his countrymen before him, he does not need to lead the entire race the entire way, like Wolfgang or Faris.

But for some stinking reason he wants to win that swim prime, and as I think about that perhaps without knowing the actual time they are swimming, you could be putting your name in the record books? Now that the course is 200m shorter someone one is going to break Lars record one of these days when the conditions are perfect. But he guns it like the swim is the finish of the race every year, I love it!!

He is going to be worried this year and I bet he is not going to use a Mark Allen strategy of just sticking with Lange. I think this will be Lange's tactic, it should be up to some point where he just thinks it is too much. But keep in mind in the old wars that Mark was the better biker than Dave, or at least rode like he was. And it was his undoing riding on PE instead of HR, usually putting a lot of minutes into the group to T2.

OK, so basically Lionel does all this work to get better in the swim and then Amberger shows up and tows Frodo to a 90 second faster swim split and then Wurf shows up and tows Frodo to Hawi and most of the way back and Frodo does not even have to work that hard while all these guys haul him around and hold off the uberbikers? Would love to see Frodo's powerfile from this year.
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Re: Frodo to T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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I don't think I said that, Frodo is not going to ride with Wurf if he is gunning for the bike course record. He can only ride what he can ride, like I said I feel there are 3 or more better on the bike than he is in this race. I think he will hang around that lead group once it congeals into its max size, and then wait for an opportunity to escape later on on the back 1/3. Let some of those up and down power miles get into Lange's legs first, then make a run for the finish with maybe TO or Weiss, or one of those other guys that always guns the last 1/3 of the ride. And even take a tow from Keinle or Sanders for a bit, but don't hang on too long unless you are sure you are riding in ok territory.
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Re: Frodo to T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
johnnybefit wrote:
Frodo's tactics are the same as The Grip and we know how that worked out. No one beats Frodo!



As I was writing this thread, I was thinking it is basically the Mark Allen strategy....or maybe the Dave Scott strategy that Mark Allen decided to copy rather than overbiking and getting passed by Dave every time! But maybe Lange can out Frodo/out Mark/out Dave with that run capability given that his swim and bike are very solid like everyone above?

No - I don;t think Lange to can that - he is not a front pack swimmer is he? I disagree that Dave followed that strategy. Dave crushed every leg!
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Re: Frodo to T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [johnnybefit] [ In reply to ]
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Spoiler alert.....

Sanders swims faster than before, him and Kienle pick up Lange early in the bike and all work together to join the front bike group within 90km, Frodo Kienle Lange and Sanders start the run together for an epic battle. :) Lange takes it.
Last edited by: SBRcanuck: Oct 11, 17 18:03
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Re: Frodo to T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [johnnybefit] [ In reply to ]
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Was that about Dave suppose to be in pink?
Dave would let Mark and the Germans ride away. He knew his PE and figured they would die on the run or win. They died. Mark watched Dave win every year until '89 when he decided to stay on his shoulder until the very end.
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Re: Frodo to Kona T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Well, according to his press conference, he wants to swim fast and expects a fast ride (if conditions are not too bad). And I read it as if he sees himself in the mix of the fast riders. Only LS would stand out of that. https://tri-mag.de/szene/pressekonferenz-von-jan-frodeno-bildern-143285/jan-frodeno-ironman-hawaii-2017-pressekonferenz-0


Anyway, he will swim fast and if he wants to, he is capable to ride fast. He mentions in the interview that he worked a lot at aerodynamics. Remember what he said after IM Austria? Something like "I was not at 100% today, rode ~20W less than I typically do, but I tried to stay very aero". He was still be far faster than Llanos and Weiss. Let him add those 20W (or more) and let the games begin...

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Re: Frodo to Kona T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
OK, Frodo's results for swim+bike and positions the last 3 year rolling back 2016, 2015, 2014.....Frodo's always second out of the water and then in striking distance off the bike (unless of course he flats and gets a penalty like back in 2014). So now that we have beaten the Frodo run thread to death, with the big X on his back, looks like the we will see him basically repeat what he does to T2....get to T1 in second, and then toy around with everyone for 112 miles, mess around with their heads and let them burn all kinds of matches trying to surge/break/attack and then get to T2 within striking range of all the overbikers....well unless Lange employs pretty well the same strategy and comes in just behind Frodo. Basically everyone else other than these two have to roll the dice and put the hammer down at some point on the swim-bike (remember the year Kienle overswam and stayed with the front pack on the swim and was cooked on the bike).

I think with Frodo's swim strength, it get's into the heads of everyone. They all probably over swim a bit and over bike early just to stay close to him because they are afraid of the train to T2 leaving right after Palani on the bike and missing the entire thing. Meanwhile Frodo can swim in cruise control and just wait around for all of these guys to burn matches and pick him up and then he can bike even easier sitting legally while these guys try to break him.

So Monty, being the Kona course swim expert, what's the analysis of how much all these guys overcook the swim and overcook it early in the bike?
If I'm not mistaken, Frodeno was third out of the water in 2015 and 1st into T2. He bombed the last 8 miles on the bike and overtook Tim O'donnell
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Re: Frodo to T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [SBRcanuck] [ In reply to ]
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SBRcanuck wrote:
Spoiler alert.....

Sanders swims faster than before, him and Kienle pick up Lange early in the bike and all work together to join the front bike group within 90km, Frodo Kienle Lange and Sanders start the run together for an epic battle. :) Lange takes it.
Would be interesting, though I don't think Kienle has any chance of keeping up with the others in a pure running race. He knows this as well and has said he wants a lead into t2. Sanders I hope will preform great, but the weather isn't his strongest suit. I don't think anyone is touching Frodeno this year, he is just that good. Next year maybe some of the newcomers could threaten him, but just don't see it happening bar a flat och penalty.
I do think that Nilsson will podium, perhaps 2nd. Should be a 50 min swim, 4:30 bike and >2:40 run and I think next year he can threaten for the win. He has been working a lot on his bike this year which is his weakness, comes out of the water with Lange, and runs at least as good as him! Not to mention he is only 26... 26 year olds shouldn't be that fast!!
1. Frodeno
2. Nilsson
3. Sanders
4. Lange
5. Kienle
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Re: Frodo to Kona T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [motorcity] [ In reply to ]
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motorcity wrote:
Well, according to his press conference, he wants to swim fast and expects a fast ride (if conditions are not too bad). And I read it as if he sees himself in the mix of the fast riders. Only LS would stand out of that. https://tri-mag.de/szene/pressekonferenz-von-jan-frodeno-bildern-143285/jan-frodeno-ironman-hawaii-2017-pressekonferenz-0


Anyway, he will swim fast and if he wants to, he is capable to ride fast. He mentions in the interview that he worked a lot at aerodynamics. Remember what he said after IM Austria? Something like "I was not at 100% today, rode ~20W less than I typically do, but I tried to stay very aero". He was still be far faster than Llanos and Weiss. Let him add those 20W (or more) and let the games begin...

It shoud be interesting to see how fast he is willing to swim-bike. Previously he could choose to not ride that hard because there was really no straight up run threat in the field lurking behind him. Now he is a cramp away from guys like Lange and Nilsson overtaking him or even Sanders and Kienle passing him back if those two tag team the bike to create enough of a gap. He has a potential swim ally in Amberger to create a larger lead going into T1 if he can use Josh as a swim domestique.
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Re: Frodo to Kona T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Another interesting thing I picked up from the Bob interviews is that Lange running 2:40 last year really scared the shit out of everyone. TO and Hoff both alluded to it changing the game and that they have been working extremely hard on their run and are confident they can now run with those guys. We will see.

Strava I Instagram
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Re: Frodo to Kona T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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Sean H wrote:
Another interesting thing I picked up from the Bob interviews is that Lange running 2:40 last year really scared the shit out of everyone. TO and Hoff both alluded to it changing the game and that they have been working extremely hard on their run and are confident they can now run with those guys. We will see.

TO, Hoff, Sanders, Kienle, Frodo....none of these guys have a chance of smelling a 2:40 run pace. Frodo could do it when it is cool in Roth, but he's too big to dissipate the heat manufactured running that fast in Kona. The others can't run that fast and never will no matter what. You're either born to run that fast in Kona or not. Training can only get you that far. TO, Hoff....sorry boys no chance. Hopefully I am totally wrong because I love almost all these guys named in this post. But I think we're talking about an exclusive club occupied by only Mark Allen and Lange and no one else. A bunch of 2:42's in Kona but no 2:40. 2:40 is basically 3 seconds faster per km or 1 second faster per 400m. That's actually a reasonable gap that's close to impossible to get to when you're max'd out.
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Re: Frodo to Kona T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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No doubt. I'm sure all those guys would be thrilled to even run sub 2:50. TO did specifically mention that when Dave went 2:40, he made a huge jump to that (hadn't run faster than 2:50 before that IIRC) and TO is hoping to have a similar breakthrough. Will be interesting to watch, and I agree that it's probably not going to happen though.

Strava I Instagram
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Re: Frodo to T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Last year's race made it clear to me that Jan has passed the point of mastery of Kona. I think he is clearly operating on the level of Scott, Allen and Reid. He's 36, and it's possible he's too old to win 6. He knows himself, the others, and this course. He seems to be 6 moves ahead of the others, including Keinle. That isn't to say he isn't racing the others. But he appears to have a winning answer, no matter what they do.

And, frankly, Ryf is operating in the same realm right now.

***********************
Back in the saddle!
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Re: Frodo to T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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oscaro wrote:
SBRcanuck wrote:
Spoiler alert.....

Sanders swims faster than before, him and Kienle pick up Lange early in the bike and all work together to join the front bike group within 90km, Frodo Kienle Lange and Sanders start the run together for an epic battle. :) Lange takes it.

Would be interesting, though I don't think Kienle has any chance of keeping up with the others in a pure running race. He knows this as well and has said he wants a lead into t2. Sanders I hope will preform great, but the weather isn't his strongest suit. I don't think anyone is touching Frodeno this year, he is just that good. Next year maybe some of the newcomers could threaten him, but just don't see it happening bar a flat och penalty.
I do think that Nilsson will podium, perhaps 2nd. Should be a 50 min swim, 4:30 bike and >2:40 run and I think next year he can threaten for the win. He has been working a lot on his bike this year which is his weakness, comes out of the water with Lange, and runs at least as good as him! Not to mention he is only 26... 26 year olds shouldn't be that fast!!
1. Frodeno
2. Nilsson
3. Sanders
4. Lange
5. Kienle

I know people are in love with the runners - and I like Nilsson and I do believe he will run well...but he got outbiked in Frankfurt by Kienle by 15 minutes - and that was with Sebi having a solo effort on the bike most of the way. Then, Patrik outran him by 5 minutes (2:40-2:45 - that's not slow :) ) but still lost by 9.

Sebi will probably be the most protected on the bike he ever has been, and if he's smart he could make the last 30 miles even tougher than ever...and he ran 2:49 last year - and I think that the lack of strength on the bike from Patrik and others will not let them challenge for the win - but possibly the podium if it's just carnage. But if they try and bike with the front pack, I don't think they will sniff 2:40 either.

Brent

DFRU - Detta Family Racing Unit...the kids like it and we all get out and after it...gotta keep the fam involved!
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Re: Frodo to T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [TriBriGuy] [ In reply to ]
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TriBriGuy wrote:
Last year's race made it clear to me that Jan has passed the point of mastery of Kona. I think he is clearly operating on the level of Scott, Allen and Reid. He's 36, and it's possible he's too old to win 6. He knows himself, the others, and this course. He seems to be 6 moves ahead of the others, including Keinle. That isn't to say he isn't racing the others. But he appears to have a winning answer, no matter what they do.

And, frankly, Ryf is operating in the same realm right now.

I think where Jan has gotten to is not just his mastery of all aspects of the race, but basically the head space of all the competition is hijacked with "what is Jan doing, what do I have do to defeat Jan, how much gap is there between Jan, where is Jan, who is he with, is Jan coming, did we drop Jan yet?". Basically his competition is stuck in the same head space as all the protour riders are with Froome in the TdF. It's literally all about how things are playing out relative to Froome/Jan given that these guys have no weakness and can both choose to do their own race on every terrain, or put the hammer down at any point in the race and enforce who is the patron of the peloton. In that vein, it fees like he has many of these guys defeated before the start line.

One of Lionel's big motivators to go to Kona this year is he wants to beat Jan head to head. He did not want to wait till Jan retires. Beating Jan in Kona is what he wants to do. At Oceanside he was literally mentally twisted backwards when Jan flatted. He wanted that chance. Does he believe he can beat Jan? I think so. But it does not seem like he is drawing motivation by beating the likes of Lange of Nilsson. It's about trying to beat the champion at his game head to head.
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Re: Frodo to T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [dfru] [ In reply to ]
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He admittedly didn’t have a good bike in Frankfurt, but yeah see what you mean. I think it really depends on if the Patrick’s can hang on to the train. Think they are about equally strong on the bike, with Lange perhaps being a little stronger. However if Nilsson manages to latch onto the train I think it can work.
Let’s say frodo/Kienle bikes a 4:25, if Nilsson is within 7-8min I would say he def has a chance for the podium. Like I said, I think Nilsson/Lange are not ready to challenge for the win as they would need to bike 5 min faster at least, but 2/3 is definitely open.
It will be interesting to see the train this year and how the pace will be when we have so many uberbikers. I think that Lange would have been able to go with the train last year if he hadn’t had his penalty, but of course he probably wouldn’t have run as fast in that case.
Sebi and Sanders will likely push the pace, and I think frodo is gonna be right with them. Don’t think anyone else who may ride with them will have a decent run
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Re: Frodo to T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Jan's time last year was the 4th fastest ever. Even with the shorter swim than recent years swim I think it would have still be top 5. If he's in everyone's head it's for good reason. His performance on the big island stacks up well against as anyone in the history of the sport. Being the reigning champ he also had the "easiest" ticket to punch to get back here so he could focus more on this race and show up more prepared, well rested.

I like Sanders, but barring flat/injury, I just think there is no way he beats Jan (or the other top guys) to win this thing. His time the past two years are 8:36 and 8:44. I'd venture to guess that it's gonna take at least an 8:09 (if conditions are decent) to win. A 30 minute course PR by someone in the pointy end? I don't know the sport as well as other, but (not counting the early years) I'm not sure we've seen anything close to this on the men's side before.

But if he manages to win it, the 20% of people who voted for him in the poll are welcome to give me shit.

Matt
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Re: Frodo to T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [Pun_Times] [ In reply to ]
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Pun_Times wrote:
Jan's time last year was the 4th fastest ever. Even with the shorter swim than recent years swim I think it would have still be top 5. If he's in everyone's head it's for good reason. His performance on the big island stacks up well against as anyone in the history of the sport. Being the reigning champ he also had the "easiest" ticket to punch to get back here so he could focus more on this race and show up more prepared, well rested.

I like Sanders, but barring flat/injury, I just think there is no way he beats Jan (or the other top guys) to win this thing. His time the past two years are 8:36 and 8:44. I'd venture to guess that it's gonna take at least an 8:09 (if conditions are decent) to win. A 30 minute course PR by someone in the pointy end? I don't know the sport as well as other, but (not counting the early years) I'm not sure we've seen anything close to this on the men's side before.

But if he manages to win it, the 20% of people who voted for him in the poll are welcome to give me shit.

If Sanders wins, slowman will have to transfer his servers to Amazon Web Services and hijack all of AWS's networking, storage and compute capacity. The energy grids worldwide will collapse from the surge of power draw into the AWS data centers. Don't worry about the people voting for Sanders giving you shit. Wall street will seek you out and lynch you because the entire US economy collapsed from the cascading grid failure form this surge.
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Re: Frodo to T2: 48/4:29 (2/7), 50/4:27 (2/7), 51/4:37 (2/49), [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Here is a wrench to throw in the works:

If I recall some stories correctly, leading into 1989, Allen had destroyed himself in training so much physically that his hormone levels/testosterone, etc., were so out of whack that he forced himself to take a block of time OFF shortly prior to Kona in order to bounce back.

And I believe that Peter Reid suffered so much one year with Tim DeBoom chasing him that he grossly overtrained the next year (out of fear, he said) and from that point on in his career, he never completely bounced back.

You would be hard-pressed to find more expert racers than Allen and Reid, outside of possibly Dave Scott and Craig Alexander. Did Frodo -- or anyone else -- get so scared of Lange (or whomever) that they tried to up their training to the point where they actually destroyed themselves rather than being primed to go???

Just an interesting thought.

Ray
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