First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time - updated with RR

Aug 4, 15 0:34

Post #1 of 36 (4765 views)

Hi! Im doing my first IM this sunday, and have been getting some good advice (I think!?) here on ST. I know , coming into the day and execution, my goal-time does not really matter. However, during my training, getting to sub 10 has been a real motivator, and I keep trying to figure out if I'll make it or not. So i thought I should try and post here to get some input on my goal times, pace and power. (Plus, I guess, get the standard "you'll blow"-comments, which - I Guess - will have some merit😬)

So, a little background: male 34, 79kg, 1,80cm. Training all my life, but no endurance-sports. Been a hobby cyclist last 8-9 years. Took up tri 2 yrs ago. No real run/swim before that. Training mostly bike/run - can't find time for pool any more than 1 time pr week in winter. Bike is my best leg. Got my FTP up to 300-310 A couple of years ago, and its kept steady in that range. Swim is ok for my volume. I can pretty easy hold 1:45-1:50 pr 100m pace "for ever", and aim for that pace for the IM swim. Run is my weakest I guess. Have ran two open mary's - 1 in 2014 and 1 in 2015. Ran 3:26 and 3:21. Opened significantly too hard both times - first halves in respectivley 1:35 (for the 3:26) and 1:33 (for the 3:21). Also - I feel my legs are the limiter - not my general aerobic system. (This year - last 15k of the open mary has me in low HR, conversation-pace. Legs just wouldnt move!).

Training has been fairly consistent. Had 391hrs last 12 months. Had 360hrs the 12 months before that. (Mostly 75%bike 25%run).

Feel my bike fitness is currently ok, and run is better than ever. Did a HIM three weeks ago. Swim 31, bike 2:20, Run 1:37. Total incl transitions 4:36. Didn't taper for the HIM and felt I paid for that on the run.

Based on recent training I feel my running has improved the most latley (maybe also as a result of having tapered and cut back run volume). Based on feel from recent runs I would hope to be able to run open 10k at 39:xx and Half mary around 1:27-28.

I also tried the bike course for my IM about 3 weeks ago. Its a four-loop course, and I managed 1 loop (45k) in just under 1:15. I did 220w for that ride, which felt very comfy.

Come the IM I aim for a swim between 1:05 and 1:10. Bike I aim for 5:00. Goal is to hold 225w steady, which should get me just under 5hrs based on my test-run. Run - whatever's left - but hope for somewhere around 3:40. I will go out no faster than 5min/k for the run, and try hold that as steady and long as I can.

So - will I have a good first IM, or fail miserably? Will post race report after race on sunday. questions and comments most welcome!

EDIT: topic

Last edited by: lovegoat: Aug 10, 15 5:48

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [lovegoat] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 3:40

Post #2 of 36 (4694 views)

Over 12

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [lovegoat] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 4:00

Post #3 of 36 (4669 views)

At first glance and without really thinking about it too much, I'm not sure you'll run that pace off that bike time. If your FTP is 310 your target power is ~73%. Running 3:40 off an open mary of 3:21 could be a big ask after that bike.

My advice is shoot a little lower on the bike to give yourself a better chance of running well. If you bike just a little bit too hard it can cost you buckets of time on the run, it is a fine line. You could easily end up "running" well over 4hrs if you overdo it. You could go fifteen minutes slower on the bike and run half an hour quicker. Plan for this race as a triathlon.

lovegoat wrote:

Run - whatever's left

= recipe for disaster, IME.

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [whiteandy] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 4:27

Post #4 of 36 (4638 views)

whiteandy wrote:

Over 12

If he sticks to his plan, then I agree, implosion and over 12 hours.
Pace it more conservatively, and I'll guess 11:15.

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [lovegoat] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 4:28

Post #5 of 36 (4637 views)

BTW, which IM is this coming Sunday, don't see one on the schedule on the Ironman page?

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [lovegoat] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 4:38

Post #6 of 36 (4614 views)

Swim: 1:07
Bike: 4:55
Run: 4 hours +/- 15 minutes

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [lovegoat] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 4:52

Post #7 of 36 (4596 views)

I hope you do it (seems like we have very similar data though I'm targeting sub 11) but the lack of swim volume make me think it won't.

Swim: 1:23
Bike: 5:19
Run: 3:57
Transitions: 7:00

Total: 10:46

But it'd be helpful if you shared which course and any other half/oly times.

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [gibson00] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 4:56

Post #8 of 36 (4593 views)

Hi - should have said that - its not an ironman-event. Its a local norwegian race: coastman (http://www.coastmannorway.com). First year event - will be small field so no big fight in the water:)

Thanks for input on predicted implosion. I realize that I will be hurting bad from 20k on the run any way I play it - question is just how badly. I will naturally also adjustment by feel on the bike - I plan on having the bike feel easy and if 225w starts to feel hard(or im not able to take in planned nutrition) I will dial back.

I am also very aware that 3:40 Off-bike is on the optimistic side- but I thought that if I bike within my goal-power I can go out at about 5 -5:10 pr k and try to hold that steady. If I hold it really good I'll hit 3:40. If not I hope i dont slow down more than 30-1 min pr k - so i could go closer to 3:50-4:00 depending og when and how bad I slow down.

I get that most find my plan optimistic, but Im curious what would be considered the single worst mistake:

(i) going to hard on the bike, or
(ii) going out to hard on the run?

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [Furious D] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 5:10

Post #9 of 36 (4575 views)

Thanks!

Furious D wrote:

But it'd be helpful if you shared which course and any other half/oly times.

The course is not an IM-event - so I guess not known to the crowd here on ST. Here is my garmin file from the test-ride I did. This is exactly 1loop of totally 4 for the bike leg:

http://connect.garmin.com/activity/825607984

Its rolling pretty much all the way, but quite flat by norwegian standards.

I was happy with the test-ride bit found my HR a bit higher than normal - did the ride the day after my HIM of 4:36 (ref first post) - so was a bit fatigued.

I dont have very many other race times to reference this year, other than the HIM. I did one oly at approx 2 hrs in june - however the swim was shortened to 5-600m, and the bike and run courses were really hilly (I went 1:08 on the bike at 283NP - http://connect.garmin.com/activity/803668307)

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [lovegoat] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 5:25

Post #10 of 36 (4537 views)

I think most people would agree that it is going too hard on the bike which causes most folks' IM to fall apart. You hit the run with dead legs and everything goes to hell.

One thing I don't think you mentioned - what endurance training have you done? When I did my first IM a couple years ago, I had similar short course fitness/times to you, but I didn't train for endurance. My longest ride that year before the IM race was 90km, and I only did that a couple times. Sure enough, 120km into the hilly IM bike course, my legs were cramping big time, and my run turned into a near 5 hour walk/jog.
Most of my friends who have been successful in their IM attempts, which is to say, they didn't walk the run, did a -lot- of 5-6 hour training rides in the months leading up to it.
Have you done a lot of those?

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [lovegoat] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 5:29

Post #11 of 36 (4531 views)

If the info you've given (FTP 310 W) is accurate and the recent HIM is a comparable course, I think you should be quite close to 10 h!
Swim - 1h10min should be easy for a 31 min HIM swimmer.
Bike - 73 % of FTP is very doable (and thus 5 h), especially given your training has been bike heavy.
Run - Agree with others that 3:40 is ambitious. If you took it conservatively at first, you could be sub 3:50 (if nutrition etc. is right).
Best of luck - and patience to racing!

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [jpiik] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 5:35

Post #12 of 36 (4512 views)

jpiik wrote:

If the info you've given (FTP 310 W) is accurate and the recent HIM is a comparable course, I think you should be quite close to 10 h!
Swim - 1h10min should be easy for a 31 min HIM swimmer.
Bike - 73 % of FTP is very doable (and thus 5 h), especially given your training has been bike heavy.
Run - Agree with others that 3:40 is ambitious. If you took it conservatively at first, you could be sub 3:50 (if nutrition etc. is right).
Best of luck - and patience to racing!

Based on his/her own numbers, he's averaged about 6 hours per week on the bike (390 hours = ~ 8 hours per week of training, so 6 hours on the bike). The training might have been 'bike heavy' in terms of percentage of training, but it doesn't sound like the volume required to do 73% of FTP and still be able to run. Just my .02.
Plus, based on those numbers, it sounds like there has been very little run training!

OP - I love seeing people go for it in a race. I say see what you can do.....worst case, you blow and its a learning experience.
Cheers

Last edited by: gibson00: Aug 4, 15 5:37

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [lovegoat] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 5:52

Post #13 of 36 (4481 views)

Hey, check this out:

http://www.endurancecorner.com/energy_pacing_your_ironman

Calculate you run power equivalent for your goal pace here: http://alancouzens.blogspot.com/...ower-calculator.html

Try to negative split (save more power for the run).

If I were you I'd go:
- 215W on the bike
- aim to run 3:55 - this doesn't mean start going out at 3:15 pace and then crumbling... Just stay at a 9min/mi pace and if you got anything left use it in the last 10k.

You could go:
1:10 swim
5:07 bike
3:55 run
T1+T2=8 min

total: 10:30~

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [whiteandy] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 5:57

Post #14 of 36 (4470 views)

Agreed your strategy seems similar to Dave Mirra in LP so over 12 might be high but if you bike a 5 expect a blowup of 4.5 + marathon.

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [gibson00] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 6:01

Post #15 of 36 (4465 views)

gibson00 wrote:

One thing I don't think you mentioned - what endurance training have you done? When I did my first IM a couple years ago, I had similar short course fitness/times to you, but I didn't train for endurance. My longest ride that year before the IM race was 90km, and I only did that a couple times. Sure enough, 120km into the hilly IM bike course, my legs were cramping big time, and my run turned into a near 5 hour walk/jog.
Most of my friends who have been successful in their IM attempts, which is to say, they didn't walk the run, did a -lot- of 5-6 hour training rides in the months leading up to it.
Have you done a lot of those?

This is something I've thought about. I have done A few but prob not as i should. However - did a 5hr hard race in may and felt fine (think i had about 250 np for about 5hrs and felt ok. In previous years I did more long rides - did a 15 hr bike event some years ago and obviously had lots of long rides then. Hopefully I can float some om this:)

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [lovegoat] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 6:12

Post #16 of 36 (4448 views)

lovegoat wrote:

Also - I feel my legs are the limiter - not my general aerobic system. (This year - last 15k of the open mary has me in low HR, conversation-pace. Legs just wouldnt move!).

That's more likely a lack of calories, not lack of legs.

If you get your nutrition in order, you have a good shot, if not you won't blow but kinda wither away.

Best of luck.

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [lovegoat] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 6:21

Post #17 of 36 (4429 views)

If you did a HIM in 4:36, it seems pretty stupid to suggest you will go over 12h on the full distance (could happen but shouldn't)
My figures are very similar to yours but my Marathon is 3h flat, and I expect to go between 10-11h, I would guess you will go 10:10.

I am making my long distance debut in 4.5 weeks, let me know how you get on!

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [lovegoat] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 6:25

Post #18 of 36 (4418 views)

The biggest red flag in your stats is that you are 79kg. If you were 65kg then you might have a shot at sub-10 hours, but you will be doing the "IM shuffle" by mile 10 on the run based on your plan.

This is your best case, but my prediction is 11:13:

Swim 1:10:00T1 0:05:00Bike 5:10:00T2 0:03:00Run 4:15:00
Total10:43:00

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [sp1ke] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 7:15

Post #19 of 36 (4327 views)

Thanks for those links! I'll definatley read those closer. Your suggestions are probably the more sound way to go. On the other hand I trend naturally to the most optimistic outcome - even realizing this could lead to A poorer result. But you for me thinking it could be smart to dial the bike back just a notch.

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 7:28

Post #20 of 36 (4304 views)

I guess this is because of the run? I used to be 82 and def feel faster given the 3kg loss.

However I would think given the forecast (13c and rain) I am better of A bit bulky:)

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [lovegoat] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 8:02

Post #21 of 36 (4275 views)

Dialing the bike back a notch and not running faster than 8:30/mile for the first 13 miles would be the way to go. Problem is that is incredibly hard to do in reality. Purposefully adding another 10 mins to a bike split that already feels comfortable makes it seem like you are coasting and leaving time on the table, but the reality tends to be that you want to do that because that 10 mins lost on the bike will pay dividends back on the run. I'm not as fast as you on the bike, but my stand-alone marathon PR is 3:13. If I had biked 10 mins slower and started running at 8:45s instead of 8:20s, I probably could have hit my 3:45 marathon goal. Instead I blew up and ran a 4:30, although it was a very hot day. The cooler temps will def help you.

I just don't see a scenario where you come close to sub-10. Sub-10:30 would be a more realistic, but still challenging goal.

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [NUFCrichard] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 8:31

Post #22 of 36 (4245 views)

NUFCrichard wrote:

If you did a HIM in 4:36, it seems pretty stupid to suggest you will go over 12h on the full distance (could happen but shouldn't)
My figures are very similar to yours but my Marathon is 3h flat, and I expect to go between 10-11h, I would guess you will go 10:10.

I am making my long distance debut in 4.5 weeks, let me know how you get on!

That is assuming he/she has actually trained for the full. 7-8 hours per week total training doesn't sound like much to me. I did the same amount, and my 70.3 times ranged from 4:35 to 5:10. Then I tried a full IM on the same training, and hit 12:30..... Of course, everyone is different, so who knows!....

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 9:48

Post #23 of 36 (4189 views)

If I'm looking at the numbers correctly your TSS estimate is 264. Run should be fine.

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [gibson00 [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 11:11

Post #24 of 36 (4100 views)

I see the point of you and others saying a HIM of 4:3x doesnt necessarily equate to a close to 10 IM. You are probably also right I havent had a 100 optimal program for full IM. However - the yearly avg i posted could be misleading. I had 2 bad months in dec/jan, and abit feb. From march I've been quite consitant above 10hrs/week, and may/june was approx 15hrs/week.

I know im probably a bit on the light side training-wise for sub 10 - but heck, that wont stop me from tryin:)

Re: First IM - bonk or fly? Predict my time (or where i blow) [gibson00 [lovegoat] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 15 11:30

Post #25 of 36 (4062 views)

You know yourself better than anyone here. Go for it!

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