I've started this thread for the small minority here who get excited by ITU racing!!
The grand finals are on Saturday and Sunday (in Edmonton, of course)
The only way the Gwen Jorgensen can lose the world title is by crashing on the bike which I would exclude as a possibility except she did precisely that last year. But she certainly deserves not to crash this year. Jodie Stimpson can't afford another absymal swim, otherwise Sarah Groff will take the runners-up spot. I think if Jodie wins, an 18th place is still good enough for Gwen to become world champion. I wouldn't be utterly surprised to see Sarah Groff win the race though because it appears to be a tough bike course and she has the guts to breakaway...
The men's championship is not quite in Javier Gomez's pocket (because of the stupid way that points are allocated). So if Jonathan Brownlee was to win and Javier has to finish 4th or better. If Alistair wins and Jonny comes second, Javier must finish 5th or better.
With a tough bike course (there is about 4 K of good climbing in the first 20K) it looks primed for another Brownlee/Gomez breakaway. If the Brownlees can't shake of off Javier, then (unless his Achilles has flared up again as Barry Shepley thinks) I'd go for Alistair Brownlee as winner with Jonny second. If Javier is somehow not in contention on the run, then it wouldn't surprise me to see Alistair contrive to lose to Jonny as I suspect he did last weekend. Having said that, if the results were to go his way, Mario Mola could possibly still possibly win but I've become a bit disillusioned with him of late: Mola has a fantastic run but when you watch him, after a few early pulls on the chase pack, he drifts to the back and coasts, as if his real interest is preserving energy to ensure one of the fastest runs of the day as a goal in its own right. Richard Murray who is less gifted seems to have a much better mentality in this regard.
My prediction: 1. Alistair B, 2. Jonny B 3. J Gomez.
The grand finals are on Saturday and Sunday (in Edmonton, of course)
The only way the Gwen Jorgensen can lose the world title is by crashing on the bike which I would exclude as a possibility except she did precisely that last year. But she certainly deserves not to crash this year. Jodie Stimpson can't afford another absymal swim, otherwise Sarah Groff will take the runners-up spot. I think if Jodie wins, an 18th place is still good enough for Gwen to become world champion. I wouldn't be utterly surprised to see Sarah Groff win the race though because it appears to be a tough bike course and she has the guts to breakaway...
The men's championship is not quite in Javier Gomez's pocket (because of the stupid way that points are allocated). So if Jonathan Brownlee was to win and Javier has to finish 4th or better. If Alistair wins and Jonny comes second, Javier must finish 5th or better.
With a tough bike course (there is about 4 K of good climbing in the first 20K) it looks primed for another Brownlee/Gomez breakaway. If the Brownlees can't shake of off Javier, then (unless his Achilles has flared up again as Barry Shepley thinks) I'd go for Alistair Brownlee as winner with Jonny second. If Javier is somehow not in contention on the run, then it wouldn't surprise me to see Alistair contrive to lose to Jonny as I suspect he did last weekend. Having said that, if the results were to go his way, Mario Mola could possibly still possibly win but I've become a bit disillusioned with him of late: Mola has a fantastic run but when you watch him, after a few early pulls on the chase pack, he drifts to the back and coasts, as if his real interest is preserving energy to ensure one of the fastest runs of the day as a goal in its own right. Richard Murray who is less gifted seems to have a much better mentality in this regard.
My prediction: 1. Alistair B, 2. Jonny B 3. J Gomez.