I think we may see Ivan Raña factor into this year's race a bit more than last year. With one FD race under his belt, I would say Frodeno is definitely someone to keep an eye out for. Tyler Butterfield too, maybe? That guy is one of the more underrated triathletes out there, and we've not heard much about him recently, so he might fly under the radar. As for Kienle, I wouldn't say he's struggled this year, the guy won Frankfurt, the European Championships. I think with the stellar field at 70.3 World's, he may have seen the writing on the wall, he's won that race twice and I think his priority has switched over to Kona.

As for the women's race, is Corinne Abraham racing? If so, her, Ryf, and Rachel Joyce once again could put some pressure on Mirinda.

I think Frodeno will be a favorite. I'd love to see Crowie make it interesting though and I'm pulling for an American on the podium.

Carfrae and Ryf is going to be close. I'd give Carfrae the edge but it's hard to pick against Ryf right now.

Except that she has raced lots recently. I expect her schedule will catch up to her by the time Kona rolls around.

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Frodeno is looking like a good pick. He just has to sit in on the swim and bike with the strongest runner near the front, then sit in on the run for maybe 16 miles, then destroy the dreams of whoever is leading then. He doesn't win if he 1) he F**** up his nutrition 2) flats and pushes too hard to catch up 3) rides stupid and tries to come into T2 in the lead or pointlessly wastes energy chasing Potts in the swim or early on the bike. Though he might be strong enough to draft Potts without burning a match, then ride nice and smooth behind him and wait for the field to catch up. The smarter play to to lay up early, get on top of your nutrition plan, and ride near the front of the chase group and minimize surges. I'm wondering if Keinle could surprise. His swim and run have improved I think.

Rinny still owns this race. She's biking a little stronger now too. The wild card would be if the bike is faster than last year forcing her to push a but out of her comfort zone. Plus light wind. They played into her last year and nobody took control of the bike and pushed the pace as Steffen and Cave were both off their game that day. I think everyone swam a little hard near the front. I think if the bike is fast and windy, Joyce has a good shot this year if some strong cyclists push the pace and she can sit in and benefit from it. Rinny has to know that she's can't let more than a 9-10 minute gap grow on the bike to any other stronger runner. She can't guarantee another record setting run like that every time. But I must admit, Ryf is a solid all around package like Joyce but an even stronger cyclist. She could break away the last 80k and build a 10 minute lead of carfrae and 1-2 minutes over everyone else, she's probably there.

Would love to see an American on the podium as well. It would have to be TO. Though Potts is a wild card. If him and Frodeno break away with maybe Starky and Kienle (Kienle has to make a close chase group on the swim this year... 4 minutes down won't cut it) possibly pushing the pace, he might hang on to 3rd. He did run 2:53 in 2012 for 7th place and he's a LOT stronger cyclist now.


I think Ryf's 2:16 bike should be put into perspective... fast 35-39 Age groupers Stubleski and Zucco rode 2:12 that day. Burke & Harms rode 2:14. These are all guys riding right around 300W on that course. Though a hilly course favors a light rider... so will Kona.


What's the womens bike course record? Can she break that... and how fast Can Rinny go?

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- Favourites for the men: Frodeno, Rana, Kienle.
- Potts and O'Donnell both in the top 10, better race for Starky this year but likely not top 10.
- Things lined up perfectly for Van Lierde last year, don't think that happens again.
- Kienle's had a rocket of a year other than Tremblant, things need to line up for him to win ('slower' swim like last year, though with Potts back that is unlikely)

Women - last year there was a great group that put 4+ minutes into Rinny on the swim, but then didn't take full advantage to extend that much on the bike. Adding Ryf and a healthy MBE to that front group, I think this could be the year that they put so much time into Rinny by T2 that even a 2:50 marathon may not matter. Ryf - Joyce - Steffen - Swallow - Cave - MBE - Kessler - Vesterby - Crawford - Stevens working together is formidable. Carfrae could have Wurtele, Hauschildt and maybe Abraham around her, if she can hang with them on the bike that would help but it will be a tall order especially if they women up front work together to build a nice buffer.

Should be exciting, hopefully they don't kill the live feed for this race as well!

Fancy Frodeno for the mens, he'd have taken 70.3 MT if not for Gomez (obviously) and I could see him coping well at the full distance.

For the women I'm excited to see what Xena can do this year, by all accounts she is running really well and we know she can bike at the front of the race. Interesting to see how much Jodie Swallow has learned from last year too. But for money I would probably go Carfrae again.

It seems like the guys who win at Kona are all 6 feet 150-160 pounds. A 6'4" guy like Frodeno winning would certainly be an outlier, but he is incredibly lean.

I think you will see Potts sitting in the group with everyone else for 60-90% of the swim.

Personally I think Aernouts will win it this year. He is the only guy to run sub 2:50 the last 2 years. His swim (from the lead pack) was +9:00 2 years ago, +6:00 last year and then he came out with Butterfield at IM France this year.

Rinny all the way. I'll be watching the live feed and rooting for her (wait... that means something different if you're Australian... let's just say I'm a big fan and will be cheering). :)

Men:
-Kienle
-Van Lierde
-Frodeno

Women:
-Steffen
-Carfrae

The big variable for Kienle will be the swim. I think Frankfurt was indicative of what he's capable of if he has a good swim and he has experience at Kona. Van Lierde is a well rounded athlete and his schedule hasn't been too busy this year so he should be fresh and thus a threat. You have to respect Frodeno but I think there's something to be said for experience at the iron distance and at a venue like Kona and he lacks both with relative to others in the field.

I can't really comment too much on the women's race other than to say if Carfrae exits the swim with a big chase group and hangs with them on the bike she'll probably run the rest of the field down. If Steffen has a solid swim she has the ability to put enough of a gap between her and the rest of the field on the bike.

There's a chance you might see either Potts or Starky podium. For Potts that's a tough gig though. You have to assume he'll lead the swim. Starky is just a big guy and that works against him on the run.

I just watched a video on Aernouts, because I didn't know to much about him, and he said his goal was "just to improve on my position from last year", and didn't seem like a guy with any expectations to win. He almost seemed like he was saying "last year was awesome, I just want to do all I can to hang on and do it again". At least, that's what I heard from it...

I have a hard time seeing Starky anywhere near the podium because of the run. But, I am not counting Potts out. He is 37, so his Kona shots are down to a small few. Last year he had to pull out. He's said many times this year that he was focusing on Kona, and I think that's evident by his lighter race load, not going to 70.3 WC, etc. It would be awesome to see if he could stay with Starky for a long time on the bike, and stick then with the lead pack after getting dropped by Starky. If he could come into T2 with the lead pack (obviously behind Starky), he might be able to run well enough to podium - depending on how far back the super runners are.

Men: Frodeno, Don, O'Donnell

Frodo is in incredible shape and at Frankfurt he showed that he can blaze this distance as long as he doesn't have a mechanical. I really think Don and O'donnell are primed for a big performance. Crowie is old but I would love a podium finish from him. Van Lierde has the odds stacked against him as last year's champion and Kienle is out of gas going into Kona. Have no clue as to what Luke McKenzie has been doing so I am not including him.

Women: Kessler, Rinny, Blatchford

I think Kessler has this thing figured out. Her 70.3 worlds wasn't great but that may have been by design. I think she is the biggest threat to win it. Ryf probably peaked at 70.3 Worlds. Rinny and Blatchford want it really bad and would not be surprised if wither of them get it. I just think Kessler is in the best shape of her life and Rinny is subject to the champions curse. Joyce is also a factor and will be in contention for the podium. I'm tired of betting on Steffen although I would be happy if she finally won it.

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Don isn't going to kona. Hasn't done a full yet.

Weather is always a big factor out there at Kona. If the roads freeze over look for Ohno to skate away with the victory.......(pink)

Cheers,

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thechromedome
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In the Men's race, I think Jacobs is the favorite and Cunnama will be close to the win. The best American hope is TO, but I don't know if he can ride with the big boys yet.

For the Women's race, I expect a group of women (probably Cave, Swallow, Steffen, Ryf etc.) to try to put time into Rinny on the ride, but she'll probably run them down in the end.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't he make big claims going into the year and then he's absolutely sucked all year long?

Pete Jacobs for the win.

Uber bikers last year threw a wrench in the men's Pro field last year destroying a good chunk of the field. This year I presume will be different and PJ will prevail.

I have no idea what he said at the beginning of the year, but if you look at the year he won or the previous year when he was second, he didn't have spectacular results before Kona either. The main reason that he's my favorite for the race is he's proven he can race that course, and he's in the prime of his career.

Just occurred to me it could be really interesting if Kienle and Starky exited the water around the same time. Starky is probably going to try to set a bike course record (as he does) and if Kienle hangs on that might help him a lot.

Amazing how chance plays into this sport.

Just occurred to me it could be really interesting if Kienle and Starky exited the water around the same time. //

And just how does an off the front lead pack swimmer end up with a 2nd, sometimes 3rd pack swimmer? I agree it would be interesting, but not gonna happen. If he gets within 2 minutes of Starky's swim, then he can ride up to him at some point and then it will be interesting. Kind of what happened last time…

Now what could be interesting early in the ride is if Frodo, Starky, Potts, and Jacobs( plus one or two other uber swimmers), all pack up and decide to make it a tiny group out front, instead of the 20+ group that most always forms early and stays together for 60 to 80 miles before the implosions start. That is real possibility since all those guys would love to keep that group small and the uber runners and riders who swim slow into their own wind and in chasing mode. It would be a great tactic. That is why i think Potts will swim hard enough to split the lead group and make sure there is at least a hard effort in the chase. Does a couple things, gets him out front where he gets to wait for something to happen, stretches out the swimmers so that marginal guys lose more time, and it could easily isolate just enough good bikers to motivate a small group to work somewhat together. If that huge group that developes every year doesn't get a chance to gel, and everyone is left in 4 to 7 man groups, then they could actually stay away, even put time into everyone behind…Sure there are great uberbikers chasing, but have to remember that you would have starky, Frodo, Jacobs, Potts, and a few other guys as good as any other group chasing, and with the benefit of the lead tv train. That in itself is worth a lot..

Also betting on Frodo. Kona has a similar climate to Mordor and we've all seen what he did there.

I forgot Starky was such a strong swimmer. If what you propose comes to pass that probably benefits Frodeno.

The big question is: will we see any of it?


Women: Carfrae, Steffen, Joyce are the favourites. Won't put Daniela there yet for Hawaii, but definitely a dangerous dark horse.

Men: So many different scenarios possible. Hard to call really.


Again, too bad we will probably not see much of it.