hmmm - Murray will have the disadvantage of a small field - but the advantage of a hilly bike course weighs more I think - if he can catch the lead group, especially via that phenom Kiwi biker Davison - Murray can take the gold. If he misses the Davison train its Royle on top.


Jackson just needs a strong front pack swim, her strength at climbing will keep her in the pack, and her run should give her a podium. I expect the pace to be on in the swim and early bike as Sweetland, Samuels and Moffat try to get away early without Jackson - with Sweetland peaking at the right time for the gold.

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Advocating for research & treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME).
http://www.meaction.net/about/what-is-me/

"Suck it up, Buttercup"
(me, to myself, every day)

I think Alistair is peaking right now on the men's side and will win, with Johnny second and Richard Murray third. Aaron Royle is a possibility to sneak in for a medal as well.
For the women, I'm going to say Stimpson with Kirsten Sweetland 2nd and Moffatt third

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Team Every Man Jack

Should be great races to watch. Not sure how you can possibly go against Alistair, after seeing him race last week, and know he's peaking for this race. Super happy to see Sweetland come back the way she has. Seems like the bike course should suit her. But, Jodie Stimpson will be hard to beat.

More important ... anyone know if there will be live online coverage/video feed of the races?

Triathlon is day 1 of the CWG and can be seen here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1im_eMTSyrM

For the US, the womens race will be 3 am (Pacific time) and mens race will be 7am Thursday (PT). Team relay will be 2 days later.

Based on the last couple of races he's been in, it seems likely that Tom Davison will catch any lead bike group, so Richard Murray should start the run with the Brownlees. I'm going with a Brownlee 1-3 (Alistair gold) with Murray in the middle.

Emma Moffat has been pretty quiet most of the year in WTS races, but it wouldn't seem a surprise to see her on the podium with Jodie Stimpson and Emma Jackson........ but for the long comeback story of the last 5+ years, Kirsten Sweetland on the podium would be nice too.

Any way to get it in Germany? Not available for me.

Thanks for the replies.

This site http://www.glasgow2014.com/your-games/games-tv lists how different countries can watch the games.

Hmm it says YouTube there. Maybe it will work at the time of the event, hopefully. Thank you for the information.

The bike course is continually rolling with a number of sharp climbs in the 8 to 10% range. For that sort of profile, I'd back the Brownlees over Davidson and Murray any day, so don't share some people confidence that TD can bring them all together, The run also has a steep climb in it.

Having said all that, Murray is the only athlete in the field who has any chance of beating the Brownlees. His biggest problem is his teammate, Henri Schoemann who if he swims for himself, will bring the Brownlees and probably Royle out of the water at least 40 secs up on Murray and he'll struggle to make the front pack on this course, with or without Davidson's help. So if Schoemann wants South Africa to win a medal, he really shouldn't put any effort into the swim (but doubt he thinks that way and why should he?) If two packs do come together, then I would expect the Brownlees to attempt escapes (as Alistair did in Stockholm last year) and shatter Murray that way. Although it is not the deepest of fields, the course may make it one of the most enjoyable races of the year to watch.

It would be a major surprise if Alistair Brownlee doesn't find a way to win. He has been looking back to his old self (also worth remembering that Murray's successes have largely been at the sprint distance)

How does the CWG bike course compare to Aukland in terms of hills? Tom Davison seemed to pull Sisson up pretty easily to the front group in that race (which granted didn't have Alistair but did have Gomez and Jonny). Personally I'm all for a Brownlee 1-2, but it would be more exciting to have Murray in the mix at the start of the run. Have there been any rumors that the South African federation has asked Schoeman to help out Murray?

I forgot Andrea Hewitt for the women.......would love to see her on the podium as well.

  
The hills in Strathclyde Park are nothing like the Auckland course - lumpy at best, it's being over rated in my opinion. It will be an exciting race to watch - don't get me wrong, but for different reasons. Totally different dynamic to this one with less depth in the field.

I too would love to see Andrea take it out, she's the only one in the field with a medal at Comm Games already, albeit 8 years ago now. I think the enforced break due to Laurent's health scare will actually work in her favor, she's plateau'd for a good amount of time now but seems to have bounced back well and will race well tonight if she can make the front pack from the swim. You will not be able to miss that pack tonight and rely on others to bring you up.

Re Vidal how is he doing now? Haven't been monitoring the situation recently.

He was interviewed on TV the other night, looked well & seemed in great spirits. Seemed to be enjoying being able to focus more time on Andrea's current campaign.

It's actually very similar to Auckland. Modelling both courses with same athlete data and predicted weather for the race puts it 80s slower than Auckland. Auckland is a bit short though and it's hard to see exactly where the turns are for Strathclyde. So all in all they're pretty much the same.

Auckland doesn't have footpath riding to complicate matters though.

Times will likely be slower with smaller bunches. Good course for Andrea as hills are her friends.

 
Interesting (& I don't doubt you're right) the two do however feel totally different on the ground. We were there 2008 couple of weeks after Beijing, they had a little super sprint eliminator race and Sam pocketed about 10k for 40mins works. We rode quite a few of those roads around there and it certainly didn't feel anything more than lumpy....maybe I was fitter then :)

Will be exciting tonight, as you know, I have a little bit of $$$ riding on it :)

Hey Steve,

I've often wondered if it was possible to wager on tri races somewhere via online - do you have source? I'd think of putting a small investment on Sweetland...

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Advocating for research & treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME).
http://www.meaction.net/about/what-is-me/

"Suck it up, Buttercup"
(me, to myself, every day)

We have the TAB here in NZ - they're taking sports bets on the Games.

I have $200 on Andrea, on the nose. She's paying $12.

:)

Wow, you must be pretty confident Andrea is gonna win.

I'm less so of Kirsten - I opened an account and invested $50 (Cdn) on her to win - should make the race more exciting for me!

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Advocating for research & treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME).
http://www.meaction.net/about/what-is-me/

"Suck it up, Buttercup"
(me, to myself, every day)

Looking at the courses the strathclyde profile is a lot more rolling - doesn't have the long drag or nasty steep bits that auckland does. Also a lot less cornering. So would definitely be a nicer ride. Still, there is plenty of climbing to suit the athlete you've backed.

ouch!

stimpson too strong, great race by sweetland....and didnt even factor in holland for 3rd

 
It's dry July - I've saved way more than $200 already ;)

I had a little side bet to be fair - we get Gemmell & Vidal talking at a little get together we're having next year for the $200. So all's not lost :)

Great race. Was really happy to see Kirsten back to where she should be.

As I said in my first post, super happy for Sweetland being back, and spot on with Stimpson pick (that one was fairly easy) ... wish I had bet my choices; or, at least, had this included in the ITU Trifecta game! Men? Johnny, Alistair, Murray. Johnny "needs" a win here mentally, IMHO, over his bro. Should be great to watch!

http://www.cbc.ca/...news/story/1.2716569

Done and done...

Silver for KSweet.

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2020 National Masters Champion - M40-44 - 400m IM
Canadian Record Holder 35-39M & 40-44M - 200 m Butterfly (LCM)

Not sure that Johnny has ever beaten Alistair when he's been fully fit has he? Certainly seems like he has a significant edge over his kid brother, whether it's mental or physical. I'd be very surprised at anything other than an Alistair win today.