Maybe he just hangs out the front like a carrot, for long enough that they burn a lot of matches bridging up to him. Then all to play for on the run, on fresher legs.

Well whatever happens I am very excited to see the outcome. Is there any decent coverage of St George?

I only rode past AB's house the other day. Didn't see a big Scott truck delivering any bikes....

It's really tough to get much of a "read" on the Gran Canaria result. A 25:20 wet suited, flat, salt water swim certainly had to be an easy effort for the likes of Alistair. We have no real idea how tough the bike course was beyond the map makes it look hilly. Emma Pallant ran a 1:15:34 and even though I know she's a good runner that makes me have to think the run course was a few minutes short. For reference at the 2016 70.3 WC the fasted female run was Melissa Hauschildt who did a 1:18:43. At the same race LS ran a 1:10:34. so over 8 minutes faster than the top woman. Ali was just over 4 minutes faster than Pallant but perhaps he wasn't even breaking a sweat. Much stronger proof of the pudding will come in a couple of weeks. I think we need a prediction pool on this one.

Hugh

Why would he lose on the downhill?

Because he's lighter.

Challenge has detailed per km splits up. AB held consistent 3:24 - 3:33 km splits

Those splits were being posted live, so it is my impression that the splits were not merely his total time divided by in an inaccurate distance

What evidence do we have that the individual km markers were correctly placed? Over the years I've done more races where they were off rather than on. When a number of athletes GPS data all seem to show a short course I'd actually trust their data more. If anything GPS data tends to show longer than actual courses. Frodo ran a 1:09:12 at St. George back in 2014. Are you expecting way quicker than that from Ali?

Hugh

I'd say the probability that they could so many timing mats wrong speaks to the mats being laid out semi-accurately.

ahhh, didn't know it was a loop. But, the splits do add up to a 1:13 half, which sounds about right. And, I said 1:06 if the course is 2min short. I think 1:08 on an accurate course with pressure on AB from competitors.

Has anybody running quicker than 1:08:50? Rather a tough order at your first try but this is the only double Olympic Champ!

hold up a second there: are you saying that Keinle and Sanders have higher w/kg than Brownlee? Yes, Sanders and Keinle have higher FTP's, but the difference in weight outstrips what is probably an FTP difference of less than 30 watts. So, that's like putting Froome or Contador vs Cancellara or Sagan on a climb. AB all the way on that one. It's losing time on the downhill AB will have to worry about.

An ITU guy isn't going to lose time to sanders on a downhill. Especially AB.

Does no one else here remember kitzbuhl when they had the big uphill? He destroyed everyone. Think he would beat kienle and sanders on a big uphill.

I don't know personally, but the article said he broke the course record by 10 minutes, fwiw.