nope Ali not racing. Confirmed start list doesn't include him and he's not been in Queenstown training with Johnny.

Really looking forward to it - head up there this afternoon as am doing my first Olympic Distance in the Age Group races in the morning. Weather not looking as good as last year though.

Will be hard to look past Gomez, Brownlee J, and Mola. Over the Oly distance I'd say it'll be a repeat of last year.

In the women's it's all a out how far back Gwen is after the bike.

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Have a great race! How close is your course to the pro version? Ours in Chicago had lots of overlap.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

I'm curious how Phil Graves will do on the swim and bike after talk in the other thread about him being a potential domestique for the Brownlees at Rio. Looking at his swim times from previous ITU races, he doesn't swim in the front pack, and his last race in New Plymouth he came out about even with Richard Murray. It's hard to see how he would be of any help to the Brownlees unless his swim is much better than those results suggest. I know he's a tremendous biker, but Murray and Mola are strong enough to grab his wheel to get to the front.

So Feketebob, what's up with Ali? Is the ankle more of a problem than previously thought?

I'd love to see Findlay, Sweetland, and Haug up front for the women.

Very close. We do three laps of the bike where they do 8 from memory. We swim in the same part but they do 2 laps of the sprint course. Run is different though. It's a lot of fun coming down Queen St at 60+ kmh :-)

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I think this race will tell us a lot about how this ITU season is going to go. If JB can pull out a win here it might give him the confidence he needs to challenge for the season points victory. I wonder if Gomez was off form a couple weeks ago, or if his attempts at long distance racing have set his short course speed back a little? My gut tells me not to bet against Gomez, but I think I'm going to pick JB for the win, Gomez 2nd, then 3rd could easily be any of the big 3 Australians, but I'm going with Sissons just because of home course advantage.

For the women's race it could get interesting. I could see the bike course causing problems for GJ and putting her too far behind for even her comeback abilities. I'll go Katie Zaferes, Andrea Hewitt, then Sara True for the podium:)

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Powertap / Cycleops / Saris

Sissons has to have an exceptional swim to be with the front group on the bike if he's to podium. Last year he relied on Tom Da is on and his epic bike speed to bring to the front and finish 6th. No TD anymore so that's unlikely.

The Sprint distance doesn't suit Gomez IMO. Not enough room to put the distance between himself and fast runners like Mola. Hence the poor Abu Dhabi showing, plus from memory I think he was under the weather a bit.

I'd love JB to take it out but Gomez seems to have his number.

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I believe Gomez was sick and still feeling whatever it was that caused him to drop out from the Challenge race (hip?) in Abu Dhabi. Hopefully he's ready to roll!

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Bringing people to the front that can run is definitely no good. Graves swim has to get much better and maybe it will.

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I hope Gwen gets dropped big time - nothing against her personally, but it makes for a more exciting race the farther back she is at T2 - I'd like to see some of the other women on top of the podium just to keep things interesting for the season.

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In answer to an earlier question, Alistair Brownlee is back running again. He is down to race in Cape Town at the moment.

Phil Graves swam 49 minutes at Kona when he was only 20, so he has tremendous stamina. So the longer the swim, the better he will do. And he had done no world cup races since 2010 so not surprised that he isn't front pack swimming. But I think on a course like Auckland, he has ever chance to do what Davison did last year and drop anyone who is not exactly on this wheel. It is not a course for large pack chases and it is hard to see past Gomez and Jonny B for the win (unless Mola turns in a front pack swim.)

Gomez did not win any sprints last year, he does not seem to have that top end any more. Looks to be a more challenging bike course that should split the field up a bit

Jorgensen :24 back after the first lap of the swim. She should make the second bike group. Looks like 8 or 9 in the front group. Surely they can't hold off the entire peloton on the bike? Even if they do, it'll take a lot of work to get a big enough lead to hold off Gwen on the run.

On a hilly course like Auckland, there's a much better chance. The women in the front group are absolutely ripping this swim.

Agreed, I forgot that Auckland was a hilly course. They've got a really big lead right now. Routier is a beast in the water.

Going to get caught here.. can't see how they'll beat Gwen now if she gets into that lead pack

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Team Every Man Jack

Lisa Norden hammering on the front to drag Gwen back to the front group isn't a winning strategy

Gwen may put 2-3 minutes into them

Gwen is smashing them. 7 in a row. Impressive

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34:10 run for Gwen. Very impressive.

Good to see Jonny Brownlee back to form and a well deserved victory.

Some interesting lessons:

1) Mario Mola showed again that a tough bike course kills his legs. He was only the 17th fastest. Bodes ill for Rio

2) Richard Varga came 7th, showing why it make sense for him to work with the Brownlees rather than against them (as discussed last year).

3) A great third place for Pierre Le Corre, showing the depth of French male athletes

4) Philip Graves had a decent swim and managed to catch up the lead group on his own in remarkable fashion. It destroyed his legs and he DNF-ed, but shows his potential as a domestique for Rio.

5) I have a nagging feeling something is up with Gomez.

Not that I don't think 34:10 is a great time. But when considered in the context of what the boys are running (and despite what a lot of you think the 10km mark is still a target for ITU course planners rather than a benchmark), I actually think the girls run times were sub par for a world event this weekend. Gwen was by far the best of a bunch of athletes who haven't moved forward to the same extent the boys have.

I'm going to edit this as I'm sure someone will question me on it. :)

I believe the girls today are exceptional at 5km off the bike, but have yet to master running 10km off a hard bike. And the way ITU is going, the current cohort may well never master it.

Its hard to directly compare the mens and womens times because the race strategies are completely different. There is no one in women's field who can run faster than Gwen so there is little impetus to try and run the outright fastest time. Instead women's 10km often has more the feel of a T&F championship race strategy where tactics mean you are unlikely to see superfast overall times. The lack of a single clear dominant runner on the men's side, combined with Brownlee/Gomez hard racing preferences, limits tactical racing. The current women's field is comparable to the men's field of a few years ago when you remove Gwen, Brownlees and Gomez. The big drop off in running times from the leaders to most of the field was tactical rather than talent.

Jonny was looking strong. Once Alistair heals up watch out.

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___________________________________________
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2020 National Masters Champion - M40-44 - 400m IM
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Why does Gwen have "little impetus" to try and run the fastest time? Which races are you watching where the women are jogging for much of the 10K and then finish with a blistering end? Certainly not WTS ones because I can't recall a single one that resembled a T&F championship race with no rabbits where the leaders dawdle at a pedestrian pace for much of the race until someone finally decides to make a move. Gwen is running hard out of T2 (and not slowing down) and the other top women also are running hard out of T2 and continuing with very hard efforts (even if their hard efforts are over a minute slower than Gwen's).

Also, on the men's side there are a ton of tactics going on. Yesterday, Brownlee basically said that he was going to red-line the first K and see if Gomez could follow. Gomez couldn't, JB got away, didn't die and the rest was history. In other races, Gomez has been able to cover every surge put on by either Brownlee and then would have to decide if he wanted to try and outkicked them, which usually he can't, or put in a massive surge from far out and hope that he could break them with his strength (last year he was very successful with that). There also is the dynamic of trying to keep guys like Mola and Murray as far away from the front as possible because they have shown that they can run as fast or faster than the Brownlee/Gomez triumvirate.