Great topic Dev.

In retrospect, getting the flat threw Lionel a curve, and he made the most of it, and I believe he came away with superb lessons both about himself, his capacity and how to race from behind when on the run. Had the flat not happened, probably by km5 he would have been leading the race. Superb resilience and hunger of a champion to push through.

Kudos to Amberger, leading from the swim, and putting on display his bike prowess, his run is evolving positively. With the Cairns win already a remarkable season for him and this race is a step in the right direction. Superb future ahead for him! Also great to see the consistency of Gambles after injury plagued years, he is back in 2017 with consistent performances worthy of his talent.

As for Sanders, this was the perfect test pre Kona and in my opinion comes away with more insights than had he gone to Chattanooga.

Kona will no doubt be epic!

Yes, indeed. Basically Lionel had to "not panic", sit on his target watts (vs over biking like crazy) and then sit on his run pace and hope everyone would come "backwards" and they did.

One benefit Lionel did have at this race that he won't have in Kona. The competition would have been just a few guys in singles, like he often gets at a regional 70.3. In Kona, there will be a big train to fight. If he can get close to Kienle and they can get close to Cameron Wurf, that 3 man train back to Kailua Kona could be epic....the guy with the slowest swim from that group could potentially take our Stadler's bike course record on a moderate wind day.

But I think Cam Wurf is going to gun it and will have no intention to collaborate with Kienle or Sanders since both can outrun him by 10-15 minutes (or more). More likely, Cam Wurf and Josh Amberger might be inclined to collaborate on an Aussie bullet train to T2 and build a gap on all the pure runners as well as Lionel and Kienle. I'd imagine that Josh will want Cam to have a really fast swim. Is there a training camp in Australia with Josh, Cam and Ritchie Porte to tune up that train?

Spot on Dev. Recently read a couple of articles on Cam Wurf in cycling tips.com and he is a man on a mission. The bike leg will no doubt be epic, it's a shame Starky won't be there this year.

Regarding the swim, Sanders came out with Kienle at Samorin so definitely great progress on his end, Can most definitely see them work together as they did in Slovakia and bridge to that front group and then see some fireworks for the marathon amongst them and 4-5 others.

I wonder why Potts didn't drill the swim?

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In the streaming video interview with Sanders at the finish line he said he was furious at getting a flat tire and biked and ran angry on adrenalin to catch back up to win. Pretty cool insight on how we have that extra gear when you really want it.

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Potts swim hasn't been on form for quite a while. He is getting older and I suspect he puts very little into it. It is amazing how much you have to put in to go a little faster but at the same time it is amazing how much stays with you with very little put in.

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Good point on the swim Gerlach. Interesting to see how Potts run has been getting better the last couple of years, very good solid run here in Penticton, however is it me or has his bike times regressed since he made the move from Kestrel to Cannondale?

Looking forward to his blog on this one.

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It seems like swim fitness and TT bike fitness go together and run fitness and run climbing form go hand in hand. It's almost like bike TT form and run form tend to diverge in that as the run gets sharper as you get lighter and lighter, the bike TT can suffer. Whereas, you can be a bit heavier while doing a lot of swim and lose nothing on the bike TT...swim kick has good crossover to bike TT. Run interval cardio has good crossover to bike climbing (open hip, more hamstring engagement).

Potts visually looks a lot lighter and more "runner body" than ever before. It is probably his best path to podium in Kona. Still makes front swim pack, drafts and saves energy, rides in the group to Hawi, conserves energy for the run, enters the run burning less kilojoules, and carries less weight through the run generating less heat and also having less of built in wetsuit allowing for better dissipation of an even lower amount of heat (ligher rider generates less heat)

Many thanks for the insights Dev, fascinating take on Potts evolution. I still remember his 4th place a few years back, will be really interesting to see his Kona participation this year.

I got a few updates as I walked around the maternity ward with my newborn in one arm and checking my phone for updates in the other.. Great comeback by Lionel.
Super stoked for Kona this year.

Yes, indeed. Basically Lionel had to "not panic", sit on his target watts (vs over biking like crazy) and then sit on his run pace and hope everyone would come "backwards" and they did.

One benefit Lionel did have at this race that he won't have in Kona. The competition would have been just a few guys in singles, like he often gets at a regional 70.3. In Kona, there will be a big train to fight. If he can get close to Kienle and they can get close to Cameron Wurf, that 3 man train back to Kailua Kona could be epic....the guy with the slowest swim from that group could potentially take our Stadler's bike course record on a moderate wind day.

But I think Cam Wurf is going to gun it and will have no intention to collaborate with Kienle or Sanders since both can outrun him by 10-15 minutes (or more). More likely, Cam Wurf and Josh Amberger might be inclined to collaborate on an Aussie bullet train to T2 and build a gap on all the pure runners as well as Lionel and Kienle. I'd imagine that Josh will want Cam to have a really fast swim. Is there a training camp in Australia with Josh, Cam and Ritchie Porte to tune up that train?[/quote]
Lets hope that the big guns come out to play on the bike and really shake up the race. I hope Cam races a composed race but takes some of the uber bikers with him.

Good point on the swim Gerlach. Interesting to see how Potts run has been getting better the last couple of years, very good solid run here in Penticton, however is it me or has his bike times regressed since he made the move from Kestrel to Cannondale? //

I don't know what you and Dev are smoking, but it is dulling your memories. So I will concede that Potts has lost a step in the swim thus far this season, getting dropped by anyone is not his usual MO, and sitting on feet of really fast dudes would have been no problem before this season.


But he is running faster, no way. Dude used to put up some of the fastest running splits in any race against the best runners, and almost always out-sprint them at the finish. I recall 1;11+'s in legit 1/2 ironmans, maybe even a 1;10. Andy came over from ITU so he had a pretty punishing run from the get go, and it just got better for many years. But he is not running like he used to, looks to me the same kind of drop off he has had in the swim and bike. And he should be dropping off, dude has been racing non stop for a very long time and is certainly past his physical prime.


Now what is amazing is that his drop off is not that bad for a guy his age, going fast and being old don't go together. Perhaps he has one more good Hawaii in him(I would consider that top 10). But other than that he can still do quite well in races that are not deep or top heavy. This was one of those races, all due respect to the WC, it had a fraction of the field that a top 70.3 race has, like oceanside. It may have been one of the least deep fields of the long WC in a long time, just too much going on for the ultra pros right now. If Lionel gets a flat in Kona his day is done, 10 guys will fill in that gap, many of which can run with him..

Do your homework Monty. Potts Marathon times in the last two seasons(2016-2017) have been his best ever. Your history lesson on 70.3 means nothing in trying to prove your point as the name of the game is Kona. His biggest step forward was a 2:44 marathon in IM Western Australia in 2016. Up to that point he had NEVER run that.

Trying to pitch in on the swim-discussion here: I would have thought that Josh's game plan going into this race would be to REALLY drill the swim from the start, in order to create a big a gap as possible? In this race, compared to other races with a deeper field, he must have known that there would be no real "train" coming from behind to null-out his swim advantage. Also - knowing LS would be the man to beat - it makes sense to give him a big gap to chase down on the bike..

On Potts being dropped - I could agree his swim may not be as sharp as a few years ago, but couldn't you also say Josh is at least a good a swimmer as Andy was in his prime? Or am I off here?

You're off. Potts was 4th at the 96 trials in the 4 IM. He was really really good in his prime

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I guess lovegoat meant open water triathlon swimmer.

I don't think in triathlon Andy has demonstrated that he's better than Josh though (even Andy at his best in tris). Sure, Andy may have been a better pool swimmer, but pretty well in every race, Josh gaps the field with uber swimmers. Maybe Josh was not as good a pool swimmer as Andy but perhaps being a smaller guy needing higher turnover in the pool to keep up with the likes of Andy, this lends itself better to a transfer to open water?

In any case, Josh's strategy would have been to drill the swim knowing there would be no train. This would make his swim gap more sustainable on the bike and he would be expecting to hold off everyone including Lionel. Let's keep in mind that at IM Cairns Josh held of Cam Wurf for a long time and then actually kept up and put the hammer down on Cam to T2. I don't believe that Lionel is any stronger on the bike than Cam Wurf. Cam raced protour as a cyclist. Even if Lionel caught Josh on the bike, I am pretty certain that Josh would have marked him to T2 the way Josh has been riding. You don't just mark Cam Wurf and then drop him going to T2 unless you're in the top biker club.

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Kona will be VERY interesting this year.

- Does Josh drill the swim to break the pack and be FOTW even though he knows that there is a train coming?
- Does he sit in the pack with Potts, Frodo, etc because breaking them is not going to make much of a difference?

It's tough to say what his strategy will be. I think he can hang on with Lionel, Sebi and Frodo pretty much until T2, but then can he run? I don't think he can run with these guys yet, not even when fresh, but I can see him at the top 5. Exciting times.

The ultimate age grouper


Dev,

Your opening comment says it all about the appeal of Lionel Sanders to the rank-and-file triathletes out there. Barrie Shepley called it, "Sanders-Nation" on a post on Facebook this morning - love it! I've seen this myself in the several public interview situations I have done with Lionel in the last year or so. He's open, he's honest, he's raw, and I feel that there is a sense that, many Age-Groupers see a little bit of themselves some how in Lionel. He just picked this up a few years ago. Came late to the sport. Is trying to figure it all out - just like they are!

As for the race itself - the swim has improved significantly. The gap is now manageable. I don't know how much more time he will gain - but the bigger thing is he's saving huge amounts of energy for later in the race. Like many AGs, he was losing time AND it taking too much out of him.

He's always been super strong on the bike, and some significant tweaks that he's made, have made him, even stronger. The short story on this one is that too much training on the indoor bike trainer with poor cycling form, really overloads certain muscles - holds you back on the bike, AND will impact the run! Lionel is now riding almost 100% on rollers - the smart eMotion Inside Ride rollers

His run seems to now be elevated. It's not pretty, it's a little ungainly, but he is moving FAST! He reminds me a bit of Dave Scott - Dave was never the prettiest runner, but he sure could run!

Then there is the mental part - this is a guy who NEVER quits. Throw some adversity at him, and he just doubles-down and goes even harder. You NEED this sort of grit in long distance triathlon racing. Why? Things rarely go 100% to plan ( way too many details and variables) - so you have to be ready to deal with it.

Add all of this up, and I think you are going to see a different guy racing in Kona in October!

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

So does this mean that Sanders now can wear the world champion colors on his jersey? Man if I was him, I would!

If I was Josh, I would not let Frodo and gang sit on my heels in the swim and I'd drill the swim and stay out front on the bike hoping Cam Wurf can ride through Frodo and gang and then tag team to T2 with Wurf and not let Kienle and Sanders catch up. For Wurf and Josh, they would be natural allies since neither is a mid 2:4x runner "yet". They need as big a gap as possible at T2 for the highest possible placement at the end of the day. If you let Frodo and a crew of 10 guys sit on you in the swim and bike then the final placement likely is lower. But maybe Josh will even come onto this thread and comment.

So does this mean that Sanders now can wear the world champion colors on his jersey?


There is a protocol in road cycling, that if you have been UCI Road Race Champion, that you have the rainbow colours on your sleeves. I'm not sure such a protocol exists in triathlon.

This is of course after the year of wearing the Rainbow jersey itself while you are racing at all times.

Of course, we now get into that funny discussion in long distance triathlon, of who is the World Champion? :)

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Even knowing Wurf's background, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say LS is a stronger triathlon-biker than Cam (whatever "triathlon-biker" should mean:D). I think LS is just slightly better at pushing steady watts over 4 hrs than cam. Or - that Lionel for some reason - is able/willing to push those high wattages and still run a marathon. (Iow - it would be a worse idea for someone like Cam to go balls to the wall on the bike-part, than Lionel whom is also a superb runner!).