As a slow swimmer, I would not complain if the swim was cancelled. I'd rather not ingest any of the blue green algae.

And you predict it will impact the swim in 3.5 weeks?

Will not be a problem. Bloom tends to disappear once it gets a bit colder.

Maybe they will bring some Wisconsin snakes to take care of it

or Julie Miller the swim :)

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My marathon PR is "under three, high twos. I had a two hour and fifty-something."

You know the pre-race jitters have started when the water condition posts start coming out nearly a month before the actual race. I am not sweating it and will continue to train for the swim.

If it's not gone by then it can. The algae is really cyanobacteria and some species can produce a toxin called beta-methlyamino-l-alanine and can cause ALS (Lou Gehrig's disease). The cyanobacteria that was tested in Lake Erie does produce BMAA and from what I'm hearing from family members in southern Ohio, tests down there are finding the same.

I have to credit my biologist wife for the facts stated above.

I did Lake Stevens 70.3 last August. There was a sign in the water prohibiting swimming due to toxic algae. And off we swam.

There is a variety of toxic algae, some is okay to swim through and some is just down right stupid. In 20 some odd days, the current may push it all away (or most of it) and I'm sure we'll be swimming. At least thats what I'm planning on.

I saw a ton of snakes in Lake Monona.....especially out in the weeds.

This. The colder temps (and rain) should clear it up in the next 3+ weeks. That being said, having done IMFL last year (cancelled swim), I signed up for IMLou b/c there was absolutely no way the swim could be cancelled there. So maybe I jinxed it.

I wouldn't spend too much time worrying about things you can't control.

The general consensus from people I know from Louisville is that it won't be an issue once it cools down.

I'm curious; what is the expected water temperature of the Ohio in Louisville around 10/11?

Someone posted on the FB Louisville group a history of water temps for 10/11 and it looks historically like it is going to be in the 60's.

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Nothing like some blue green algae and the smell to waken your day. Don't drink the water, toxins can be in clear water as the algae dies off and releases it.

I did the same thing after volunteering at IMFL haha. This will be my first, so a canceled swim would be terrible! $700+ and working my training around a wife and 3 kids isn't something I can swing regularly.

http://www.courier-journal.com/...ct-ironman/72519422/

Another article...http://www.wdrb.com/...with-no-end-in-sight
I agree it's still too early to worry about, but after doing the swimless IM Florida last year I will be watching progress..just out of curiosity I wonder what the "contingency plans" are, other than just canceling swim.

Unfortunately, it's not getting cool enough here (still low 80s high and low 60s lows projected for next few weeks) and we aren't getting any rain anytime soon. They keep saying this is an "unprecedented" situation, etc. I'm getting nervous.

Still have over 2 weeks to go.

My long range forecast has several evening in the 50's and 3 chances for rain. You also need to look at the weather upstream across the region.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed. My athlete is a stronger swim/bike than runner. The strong runners that are poor swimmers will gain 4-7 minutes on him if the swim is cancelled. If the swim had been cancelled at my IM last year, I would have lost 2-3 places I think.

Everyone says how unimportant the swim is, but that's not true, when some very fast runners are poor swimmers. It equalizes the run for "all-arounders". It's hard to go sub 9 or sub 4 hours in 70.3 is you swim a 1:10 or 38:00 respectively. That's a lot of time to make up on the bike/run. I predict Sanders will miss wining Kona almost exactly by the margin of his swim time to the lead pack.... or he'll blow up trying to close the gap.

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If this resolves, it won't be until the week before. We will all get more nervous between now and next Saturday, but I have my fingers crossed. I did IMFL last year and the swim canx really sucked although I understood the rationale. I'll still come to Louisville for my LQ count but if the swim is canx I am probably going to call it a training day and think hard about a double.

I don't know how I feel about this. I am a decent swimmer, above average cyclist, and good runner. It would definitely be to my advantage to cancel the swim. That being said, and I know a lot of ppl that did the shortened IMFL that feel the same way, I'd never feel like it was an IM.

The swim isn't my forte, but I'll cross my fingers that we do get to race all 3 events.

I'm the same way, decent swim, weak bike, good run. I'll just show up and do what I'm told.

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What I do: http://app.strava.com/athletes/345699

Swim is the weakest of the three disciplines, but if the swim gets cancelled I'm going to be very conflicted. I've been wanting to do an ironman for 10 years and never got serious about it until 20 months ago. Next year I'm already committing to switch from tri to time trials. I enjoy triathlons, but 11ish years of running my knees are wanting a break. All of that is to say, it is in my best interest for the swim to get cancelled from a finishing standpoint but I don't want it to. I want to accomplish the goal I set out for 10 years ago and I'd hate to be given a free pass on my weakest leg. If it was cancelled I'd seriously consider taking it very easy on race day and then in a ~2 weeks do one on my own in practice.