Login required to started new threads

Login required to post replies

Prev Next
Post deleted by Administrator
Re: Advice on marathon goal next week [runner66] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Runner66, a 3:05 marathon is 7:03 pace which could be doable if the ankle holds up and you don't drop off a great deal after mile 20. Warm up by walking, start off slowish and talking to people as you get the first ten miles done. Don't get too optimistic until mile 20 and then maintain.

Before race day, walk that ankle to rehab it. Good luck.

Indoor Triathlete - I thought I was right, until I realized I was wrong.
Quote Reply
Re: Advice on marathon goal next week [runner66] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
You are at ~ 3:20 finish time if your ankle holds up, and ~3:40 if it doesn't. As mentioned in your previous thread, you really should have at least 1 or more runs at a greater distance than 16 (in addition to the moderate distance run on another weekend day). Whole different animal once you get in the long distance efforts at a specific race pace.

You're strong right now because of your overall mileage and your previous experience, but you're still better off going conservative on your finish time.

Hope the race goes well and the ankle holds up. Good luck.

http://www.reathcon.com
Quote Reply
Re: Advice on marathon goal next week [runner66] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
If you Google "marathon pace calculator", you'll find several to choose from, each of which probably use a slightly different formula. For me personally, I found that the calculated marathon pace estimates were faster than what I was capable of doing. There could be any number of reasons for that, but in my case, it probably wasn't from a lack of long runs. My long runs were 16 (3), 18 (3), 20 (1) and 22 (2). I ran a fairly evenly paced marathon in October, was very happy with how I did, but it wasn't nearly as fast as the pace calculators would have had me pacing.

If plugging in your 5K pace gives you a HM pace that is faster than what you think you could do for a HM, then the same will probably be true for a marathon.
Quote Reply
Re: Advice on marathon goal next week [runner66] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
The race never really starts until mile 20. With your base of 50 miles you could do it. However, your bum ankle and the fact that you have never gone past 16 miles at one time is a concern. My money would be on a time closer to 3:20 - 3:25. I think training to the 20 mile treshold (at least) is critical when you are trying to hit a time like 3:05. Good luck though. Prove me wrong.

------------------
http://dontletitdefeatyou.blogspot.com
Quote Reply
Post deleted by Administrator [ In reply to ]
Re: Advice on marathon goal next week [runner66] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Dude, you trained for 3:05, now go run 3:05. No excuses!

What I do: http://app.strava.com/athletes/345699
Quote Reply
Re: Advice on marathon goal next week [Printer] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Printer wrote:
Dude, you trained for 3:05, now go run 3:05. No excuses!

+1. Bad ankle, bad weather, waaah! HTFU and get it done!
Quote Reply
Re: Advice on marathon goal next week [runner66] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
At this point, don't over think it. The extra taper may work in your advantage. While science and training theory tells us x, people always end up proving it wrong as everyone is different. Go out with the goal of performing how you planned and trained for. Just keep in mind ou may or may not have to adjust pace based on your ankle and deal with it as it comes up on race day.

Be a racehorse. A racehorse never second guesses its training or fitness. It just goes out and runs the race like it trained to do.

"Just don’t abandon everything you’ve ever learned because of something someone said on the internet." - Eric McGinnis
Quote Reply
Re: Advice on marathon goal next week [runner66] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Nothing about what your posted made me think you were in 3:05 shape either. If I were you, I'd more likely start on 315-3:20 pace for the first 10-13 miles and then crank it up in if you're in as good of shape as youre now saying.
Quote Reply
Re: Advice on marathon goal next week [runner66] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
runner66 wrote:
Are you kidding with the prediction of a 3:20 if healthy? I could jog a 3:20 with a 70 percent effort easily. I know I asked for opinions, but that is not even close. I ran the hilly half on 2/28 and at ten miles I was at 1:10 and not even working that hard. And that race was much tougher than the marathon course.
Using the McMillan calculator: https://www.mcmillanrunning.com
If you enter in 10M in 1:10:00 (7:00 pace), it projects a marathon time of 3:16:30 (7:30 pace).
If you enter in 10M in 1:08:20 (6:50 pace), it projects a marathon time of 3:11:49 (7:19 pace).

Since your training has been a bit lacking in terms of long runs and you've been slightly injured, it's not unreasonable for other people to think that any marathon pace projections that are based on what you can do for 10 miles, may be optimistic. For me, the last 4-6 miles of my October marathon were when it really got tough. There was a world of difference between me doing a 22 mile training run at an 8:15 pace vs. running 26.2 miles at a 7:43 pace.

Best of luck in next week's race.
Quote Reply
Re: Advice on marathon goal next week [runner66] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
I agree that the marathon starts after mile 20. It is concerning that 16 is your long run. I would not expect 3 hour effort having not gone over 16.
But here's to proving us all wrong!
Quote Reply
Re: Advice on marathon goal next week [Ty] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
I'll add on to what a few others have said. I'd guess 3:15-3:20.

____________________________________________________

Quote Reply
Re: Advice on marathon goal next week [runner66] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Dood; don't kid yourself; you aren't close to 3:05 ready and you have ankly issues...

Your last tempo was 10miles at 7:06?! I've done Hansons plan...tempo pace should be comfortable below your expected race pace...you didn't even run Race Pace...I'm not being critical I'm just suggesting you check your ego at the door and give yourself a realistic set of expectations.
Quote Reply
Re: Advice on marathon goal next week [runner66] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
My gut says 3:10. Everybody is different but that is my guess.

My n=1 follows: About a year and a half ago I had trained up for what I think was my 19th marathon (I'd have to go back and count to be sure) but my training sounded a bit like yours. I prob averaged 50 mpw but did more long runs and longer long runs than you have and I usually did a tempo run each week ranging from 6-10 miles at 6:35-6:55 pace (yes, even the ten miler). I was healthy on race day and all was good. I ran a 3:10. Five months prior I ran a 3:11 on very similar training. Several months before those 2 marathons I ran a 1:27 half on a rolling course and serious headwind for 50% of the race. Just sharing as a comparator for you. FWIW I was never near 18:00 5K. I ran a couple of low 19's during this same time period. I hope this info helps some.

I wish you great luck! Post back after the race and let us know how you came out.
Quote Reply
Re: Advice on marathon goal next week [Soarfeet] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Soarfeet wrote:
Dood; don't kid yourself; you aren't close to 3:05 ready and you have ankly issues...

Your last tempo was 10miles at 7:06?! I've done Hansons plan...tempo pace should be comfortable below your expected race pace...you didn't even run Race Pace...I'm not being critical I'm just suggesting you check your ego at the door and give yourself a realistic set of expectations.

i'm not kidding myself. ;)

if he trained for a 3:05, but has issues with ankle and couldn't train 100% like the hanson plan recommended, then i'd say a 3:15 is probable. isn't the hanson plan low on miles anyway?
Quote Reply
Re: Advice on marathon goal next week [runner66] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Go for it! Chances are good you're going to get paid the same whether you run 3:05 or 3:45. If you shoot for your goal and miss, the worst thing that will happen is you'll have to walk the last few kilometers. If you can run an 18:00 5K, and you've been running 50 miles a week, you've got a decent shot at 3:05.
Quote Reply
Re: Advice on marathon goal next week [d00d] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
LOL..sorry DooD...I was referring to him...not you....I agree with the 3:15-3:20 crowd.
Quote Reply
Post deleted by Administrator [ In reply to ]
Re: Advice on marathon goal next week [runner66] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
We all wish you luck. Know this!
Remember Lance's marathon debut? I think that he topped off at 16 miles for his long run. People were predicting (including STers) he would run 2:30 or faster. He ended up, if I recall right around 3 hours. Now here is a super athlete/international star and doping and he could barely run 3 hours.

And I believe he said that it was the hardest thing that he had ever done up to that point. Of course admitting he lied to his children and facing Oprah probably trumped the race later on.
Quote Reply
Re: Advice on marathon goal next week [runner66] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
I believe in the Hanson plan...but it doesn't give a lot of room for error....I think it is unnecessary heavy on speed over volume..but that is their approach which relies heavily on training with cumulative fatigue....generally I believe it is fundamentally sound...

re: my math; maybe my confusion; I thought tempo pace was 10-15sec. under race pace...

I'm happy to admit being wrong...you certainly sound like you have confidence in you preparation and that is 90% of the battle.

Good Luck!
Quote Reply
Re: Advice on marathon goal next week [runner66] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
runner66 wrote:
It's obvious that most of you do not believe that the Hanson plan can work because of the low mileage and long runs capped at 16.
No, I'm sure that the Hanson plan probably works great, for people who are well suited to it. They have had incredible success working with elite athletes. You may be successful, but you're not an elite athlete (neither am I). I think that the long runs that I did for my last marathon were far less important for any physical adaptations that they may have caused, than the mental benefit that I gained from them. I did several 3 hour training runs. It not only gave me confidence, but it gave me more data points to help judge what a reasonable target would be in my marathon.

I didn't feel the need to ask anyone for advice on my target pace leading up to my October marathon. Nobody knew my body and what training it had been through, better than me. That's where having done some 20-22 mile runs certainly helped me, and may have helped you. I looked back at some of your old postings. In response to this:
dirtymangos wrote:
I am fresh off an extremely unsuccessful marathon campaign.
There are probably many reasons for the failure. I believe the most important is this.

I needed EITHER a long long runs- 22+ miles
Or a very long marathon pace tempo runs 12-16 miles
COnsistentlty.

A 18 mile long run and a 8 mile fast pace tempo is NOT enough.
I needed consistent exposure to lots of miles at race pace, or I needed 26 miles to be "shorter."

To answer your question:
If the tempo paces is too easy- Increase the distance.
.
You wrote:
runner66 wrote:
I'm reporting back after a few more weeks of training. The tempo runs are no longer easy. Tne plan stresses the importance of cumulative fatigue, and I get it now. I am going to stick to the plan.

Sorry to hear about your marathon result. I'm not sure a 22 mile long run is necessary. Plenty of people have had success following the Hanson plan with only a 16 mile long run. I am in week 11 and it is getting very difficult recovering quickly enough to stick to the plan. The Sunday Tuesday Thursday workouts are getting really tough with only Wednesday as an off day. Maybe you did not have a big enou base, or maybe your goal was too aggressive?
It sounds like the Hanson plan convinced you that you shouldn't need to run more than 16 miles at a time, but now you're not sure where you stand? But you're trying to convince everyone else that there's no reason to run more than 16 miles. I hope the Hanson plan works out for you.
Quote Reply
Re: Advice on marathon goal next week [runner66] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
as you stated, the whole logic of the Hansen plan is to do the shorter 16 mile long run on tired legs, Thursday is a pretty tough marathon pace run, Friday and Saturday are like 8 or 10 and then sunday is on fatigued legs. I like the logic of the plan and know a number of runners in that 3-ish hours pace who have had good success with it, especially older runner with a lot of miles on their bodies.

I think your training and 18 flat 5k point to good fitness and I doubt that running 3.15 would be any more satisfying for you right now that going out at 3.05 pace and walking off if you can't do it. At some point you get enough finishers medals, my vote, if I get one, is to roll the dice and run the race you trained for.
Quote Reply
Re: Advice on marathon goal next week [jroden] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Not to be voice of dissent, but if you run 3:05 w/ a negative split on a long run of 16 miles you'll have made a mockery of every running coach/race predictor/training plan in existence.

Good luck.
Last edited by: ronniewo: Mar 14, 15 22:10
Quote Reply
Re: Advice on marathon goal next week [ronniewo] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
ronniewo wrote:
Not to be voice of dissent, but if you run 3:05 w/ a negative split on a long run of 16 miles you'll have made a mockery of every running coach/race predictor/training plan in existence.

Good luck.

that's the point, he is following a plan and it's one that has worked out well for people. The authors of the book make a good case for the idea of running more solid mileage over 6 days a week rather that doing a singe 3 hour run and being beat up for days. I know a bunch of people that have followed the plan closely and run low 3 hour races off mid 50 to mid 60 mile weeks
Quote Reply

Prev Next