I'm guessing as both welding tech and tube shapes for AL become more sophisticated we will see more alternatives to carbon

I'm also guessing that we're approaching a point of diminishing returns on aero IF a P2 with Tririg bars out performs a P5

I think a lot of people might be considering a good aero road bike to work both duties (racing, training, pleasure).

For example I was looking at the Argon Nitrogen 2016, pretty slick bike. Some aero bars and it would cover off the needs of 95% of the riders out there.

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I agree re aluminum, see the new Giant Propel AL. The top tube and head tube are formed as one piece.... which is really impressive!

I also agree re: diminishing returns to aero. IMO, there's really not much to be gained over a Speed Concept or P5. At this point, it's mostly about storage integration, comfort, and ease of wrenching. More room for wider tires in the rear along with a soft-tail would help with comfort without incurring an aero penalty.

To the OP, I'd expect to see a new super bike from Cervelo somewhat soon but I don't expect to see a new Shiv debut until Kona '16.

What's coming for 2016? The new Felt IAxx series is something I'm really really interested in. It's basically a standard IA without all the integration. Quintana Roo also has their new PRfive which is also a non-integrated version of their PRsix. This is another bike sitting in a price point that is much more realistic for the masses. I'm going to have some tough decisions early next Spring when I'm ready to buy a new bike.

Why do you think 2016 for a new SHIV?

I agree, the manufacturers will need to produce better bikes at lower prices. The new Felt top end bike is 16K I think!!!

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Mike

I think the basic problem is that we've seen the big aero gains. Low CDA, w/kg within design constraints dictate fastest time. CDA can be reduced to a min of X and w/kg can be a Max of Y. It's not like we'll see some development as in the Americas cup with foiling as riders aren't ever going to routinely descend at 100k and speed uphill is limited by known variables. So from a consumer perspective if someone can give me 99% of a P2 with a replaceable hanger made in AL for the same or less and someone else can offer a Tririg alpha X and omega X with shorter reach wtf I'd buy anything else is beyond me. You could put the difference down to road surface and never know

Their 2016 catalog leaked about a week ago. No new shiv. So they'll probably show off the 2017 Shiv at Kona '16. That's my guess.

Really? You can buy a full carbon ultegra tri bike for $2000. Aluminum is, in the tri world, mostly an inferior material.


link to this "data?"

Is this a joke?

Sure. Frontal CDA can't equal zero, and FTP of 7w/kg is unlikely to be exceeded, if u can produce that your an idiot or a doper so the limitations are finite. You are constrained by a minimal frontal area, a maximum power output and for UCI, weight

AL extrusion and welding is becoming more sophisticated, the giant is what I was referencing, so within the constraints of tube shape, frontal area, known power limitations it clearly doesn't take a rocket scientist to determine that the returns are diminishing when a P2 with Tririg equals or trumps a P5

still waiting to see some proof of this...

AL is an inferior material because?

Data on qind tunnel performance is on tririga website. I've no skin on this game so make of it what you will

What I will say is that AL is inferior for its ride quality and the aero quality.

The former has been repeatedly demonstrated to be as much if not more a function of tire a d pressure than frame, the later is being f addressed through extrusion and welding tech

We will see aero AL, we'll see results with it and the market will adjust. AL fell out of favour for ride and aero, when it matches carbo. And is more durable it will increase its market share.

I say this owning p2, km40, speedmax AL and a bunch of others

Sure go to Tririg website, white paper. The point isn't whether it beats it or loses to it, the point is that they're so close you'll never be able to put the win down to the frame if you accept - which you don't have to - that the frontal profile is the determinant of performance.

You think they can sustain the price escalation? Or maybe they will always have a few "extreme high end" bikes that they sell very few of but their bread and butter will be the 3-7k bikes.

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Mike

i'm really really hoping for some very cheap frames with amazing storage/hydration integration that are long/low

I think the point here is thay, lets assume you have a high disposable income. Let's say you drop 10k on a bike today and 10k on a patek as neither affect your personal financial situation. In three years time I'm not dropping another 10k on a bike, or rather had I done this 3-5 years ago I'd not be dropping the same again on a bike, the watch however.........speed gains aren't there, the watch meanwhile

I think Felt is offering up the best group of tri bikes to cover the full spectrum of budgets this year. Sure they have that $16k IA but they also have one for $3k and they are arguably not THAT different. Sure the carbon layout for the frame is different and components etc but one potentially take that $3k bike and with some upgrades get it awful close to the $16k bike. And Felt is offering bikes that fit in a full range of budgets within this range of extremes. I would think the best companies would want to follow suit.

The marginal costs for an aluminum frame are also much lower than for a carbon frame: cheaper material and less labor. Initial capital costs are high... but they're high for carbon too.

Don't forget the Dimond and Ventum bikes. Dimond is supposed to be updating their fork soon and the Ventum should be out in a couple of months

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i meant real data

haha I never said it was accurate data. I was just giving you the link

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It is not very hard to believe. When the P3 came out people were able to see that the data Cervelo released showed the majority of the drag difference between the P3 and P5-6 comes from the Aduro aero bars on the p5. So if the tri-rig bars are a bit more aero than the aduro bars and combined with the tri rig brakes, it is pretty reasonable to see the P2 would be really close to the P5, this is independent of the Tririg data.

I mean just look at them they're pretty much identical i personally wouldn't be suprised if the difference was only like 2 watts at 40kph with an amazing p2 set up