Yea there was race today and lance came in behind James Cotter in third place. Can't find what race it was.

A little twitter investigation, and it was the RLE Open Water swim; he finished the iron-distance in 48-high, apparently.

And to think... Lance's original natural talent was swimming... if my memory is correct...his high school swim coach tried to talk him into training for the olympics as a swimmer.... 48 is NOT shabby at ALL.

I'll attribute the relative silence on this to it being sunday morning but 48:xx sounds pretty fast to me. Can we finally put to bed the theory that Lance will have to make up time to the top contenders on the bike? He will be right there with them and ride away. Can we add 5 minutes or so to this guess his IM time? Somebody asked him on his twitter yesterday straight up if he was going to do Kona and he replied no. I bet he does a lesser ironman. The lesser competition would mean he would definitely be competing for the win.

I want to see him compete. This is compelling.

I said a long time ago on this forum in one of the ten-bazillion lance threads that his swim is going to shock people. If he doesn't melt down in the heat in Hawaii he is in the top 10 for sure, maybe top 5 -- if he can get there before he gets much older. I don't know if he will be able to do the run training required without getting injured.

This thread needs SpeedRacer1 and FastandFun.

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The Triathlon Squad

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..somewhere I think some map pro triathletes just took a mental collective shit..

"wait..what? the guy might be out there in the lead group OUT of the water and THEN hit the bike?.."

cheers
S.

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// qui audet adipiscitur

pretty exciting. Kona will be worth the live internet feed this year.

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You don't have to like what I say but you should respect my right to say them and I'll do the same to you.

THIS

I dont mean to correct you but:

somebody: Dear @lancearmstrong,are u gonna compete for the next ironman KONA?

lance: @terkster possibly

Just curious, but why do so many people seem to think that Armstrong will be able to ride so much faster than someone like Lieto? And speaking of Lieto, we've all seen what happens to those who just kill it on the bike--they get hammered on the run. What's different about Armstrong doing it than Lieto?

When you look at Lance's 1st time attempts at a marathon, IM distance swim, and (well) the bike (of course)...also, lets not forget he was a junior "wonder kid" when he did pro level triathlons during high school (and perhaps - jr. high as well - can't remember when he did his first non-junior tri - perhaps the President's Tri in Dallas/Las Colinas???? mid- 80's?... I remember (vaguely) the race - I was there competing...and I believe he was leading up til the run...when he was run down by a "big name" pro in the very last portion of the run...? ).

This guy is a natural born multisport athlete who has a LOT of potential...no doubt if he can stay healthy and train correctly... he could easily have the potential to finish in the top 10 at KONA in a few years (or less... would not surprise me either).

I've been waiting for him to do an IM for many years... can't wait for it to be a reality.... fingers crossed.

I can think of seven things...

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"100% of the people who confuse correlation and causation end up dying."

Just curious, but why do so many people seem to think that Armstrong will be able to ride so much faster than someone like Lieto? And speaking of Lieto, we've all seen what happens to those who just kill it on the bike--they get hammered on the run. What's different about Armstrong doing it than Lieto?

Because he can - perhaps? but... yea... I agree... the big question is probably still the run after the bike... but, I don't think anyone should doubt Lances biking skills on any level...and, few should sell short Lance's potential for becoming a strong runner. The guy is an aerobic machine...no doubt. And...aerobic machines win IM's.

Haha, true. Don't get me wrong I am a Lance supporter in that I think he is a great athlete and has done some great things with his foundation. I just could see the scenario playing out where Lance kills the bike only to be passed late in the run by someone like Raelert (both will be at Kona this year)

definitely a very good time, but to be fair, they appear to be wearing wetsuits in that pic. speaking as someone who's a medium-OK swimmer and stronger biker, i will say the wetsuit gives me a minute or two . . .

-mike

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Because while the pros are great athletes in great shape, they don't rise to the level of a pro cyclist. A seven time winner of the TdF, finished 2nd 2 years ago and top 25 last year. Do you really think that him riding at 70-75% of his FTP isn't going to be measurably faster than Lieto and others at the same % of their FTP?

I think Lance would be first off the bike in any triathlon he did right now. I think he'd get run down by an elite pro field, but that's what it would take to do it.

Does anyone remember what Steve Larsen did on the bike at Hawaii in 2003?
And you knew he was going to tear through the bike and get to the front, making so-called bike specialists look like they were standing still (when you make Normann Stadler say after the Hawaii Ironman in 2003 �he passed me like a motorbike,� that constitutes being on another level).

Does anyone believe that Lance couldn't be every bit as dominant on the bike? I would imagine he can lead by a pretty good margin off the bike with less effort than the guys close to him and run 2:55, it just depends on what anyone else can do.


Just curious what would he have to do to get a pro card? it would be awkward to have him racing against the times of the pros from behind?

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John

I think that LA is just going to show up somewhere without fanfair. His Speed Concept will suddenly appear in transition without him putting it there as everyone's attention will be on the start. He'll just be another guy in a wetsuit at the start line. That would be the ideal first race.

See Stadler, Norman.

(I'll leave aside the idea that Lieto is in the same league as LA on the bike.)

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Larsen was in 2001.

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Dan Meehan
Coach / Athlete

FWIW, I believe Yoder beat Lieto on the bike today at the Kemah International. I thought that was said at the awards ceremony.

Yes, it was a 40K. Yes, Chris might have been saving something for the Texas 70.3 next week (although I don't see why he would hold back on a 40K). Yes, it's early in the season. As good as Chris or any other pro triathlete is on the bike they aren't remotely in Lance's universe. Jordan can correct me if I'm misquoting him but he said something along the lines that any pro triathlete competing in the TdF would come in dead fuckin' last. Lance won the damn thing 7x and came close two years ago. It's a different world.

If Lance can swim around :50, the only person he'd really need to catch on the bike would be Potts and that wouldn't take very long. Then he's off. If that were to happen, it would be very interesting to see what the strategy of the others would be. Give Lance a 15-20 minute lead and it could be over. Try to keep Lance in their sights and they could pay dearly on the run.

I'd love to see this all play out.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

I'm thinking Lieto and Lance might want to make a nice showing for Trek and put a little time into the field and see who can catch them on the run. Lance being there might be one of the best things to happen for Lieto.

Maybe because LA is one of the best cyclists ever? Just a thought.

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The Triathlon Squad

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Wasn't there a video that Lance put out on Facebook last year that showed him and Lieto, in Hawaii, duking it out in a time trial? And I think Lance spanked him pretty good. And I didn't get the sense that LA went all out. I.e. maybe just hard enough to make sure he came out ahead. Or maybe they both took it easy. I can't recall but I do remember Lance took him.

Lieto nearly won in 2009. Stadler won it in 2004 and 2006 with this strategy. Faris won it in 2005 leading the bike almost the whole way. Hellriegal did it one year too I think, and was 2nd to Mark allen as well after leading on the bike.

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Ruble Triathlon Coaching Average of 30 coached PR's per year
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Actually it was something like 18 seconds. So not a spanking, but who knows what the effort was.

And I think it was only 10 miles?

Yes Lance beat him, and I think it was also noted that Lieto did either a swim before or had a brick run afterwards. Not saying that both are on equal, because thats obviously not true, just pointing out that I think Lieto had a AM swim before this little matchup TT. Not to say Lance was going all out or whatever, just reporting everything.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

WIN

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___________________
"TRIATHLON ISN'T ACTUALLY THAT HARD OF A SPORT" -ALISTAIR

Lance is painting a masterpiece... 48 is the perfect time to spur some mixed intrigue, he plans to win an IM. and qualify for Kona legit

Are you being serious? Did Lieto win 7 Tours while I was not looking?

Until he can prove he can do the run training, and actually run a decent marathon, yawn...

I think ultimately, he has a helluva cardio engine. As mentioned, that wins races. HE lacked the power to weight ratio to match acceleration in the mountains in the last TDF's or the sustainable peak power to win the TT's. Be he was still very, very strong and not far behind.


I think the run is the big question mark. I think he conserves a little on the bike so he an have fresh legs. Sooo the big question is, can he build the run speed.


Does he actually trade some cycling muscle (weight) to be leaner for a faster run. I could see him evenly splitting his training time on the bike and run just for that reason. But if he trains too much running, he might risk injuries. It seems like most all triathlete injuries are running related other than a bike crash.




If I were him, I'd warm-up with a couple local HIM to test nutrition strategies and such at race pace, and test his running form off the bike, then pick a smaller IM and go for a win and get a Kona qualifying time.




Does anyone know, will he be sponsored or race under the Livestrong name?

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TrainingBible Coaching
http://www.trainingbible.com

Lol.... remember when folks were saying that about his swim not that long ago. I guess its 2 parts down, 1 to go ...

Until he actually races a tri, let alone a long distance race, yawn.

Yeah, I also remember at least 2 threads where people predicted he would easily break 2:30 in his first marathon, some even had him running an OT qualifier!! I mean, how does a guy with the greatest aerobic system not, right. Fact is, he barely broke 3 and said it was the hardest physical event he has ever done. Why wasn't he faster. Because there is more to running than having a great aerobic system.

He will never toe the line at Kona. Either he backs out because his run fails to substantially improve, or he gets injured because his run doesn't substantially improve.

And for the record, I was enormously impressed that he as able to run a 2:59 after such specialization for 20 years. I don't think too many people realize how hard that was.

He's run a 2:46, to be fair. Still well off where he needs to be, but with dedicated training, who knows.

I don't think he gave the marathon his best effort judging from the extra lbs and comments from others including AS regarding his lack of proper training.

No idea how it all plays out, but I do know that he's been pretty successful at whatever he does when going pelota-out.

If you followed the splits in the middle of it Lance was smoking him, then somehow the gap had come down big time at the end. I don't think it would of looked good for the sponsors if he blew him away.

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Ride Scoozy Electric Bicycles
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Well that in itself should tell you all you need to know about him, and his future as a multisport athlete. Here is one of the most focused athletes on the planet, who now can't focus enough get his ass out the door enough to train properly, even though he said it was important to him. No reason at all to believe his flirting with tri will result in anything different. He has nothing left to prove as an athlete. He is starting to remind me of Favre, except that Favre actually continued to perform at a high level. He really should just walk away now.

Water temp was 69 this morning, and they used USAT rules so it was a wetsuit legal swim.

Lance won't have to qualify for Kona. They'll give him a "celebrity" slot if he wants it. That means he won't be starting with the pros but 30 minutes later with everyone else.

Yes, a 48 minute IM-distance swim clearly shows he's not training properly.

His pro cycling card reciprocates. He'll race pro if he wants - which he will want.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

You don't even need count to seven. Two or three is enough.
Dr Ferrari, Bruyneel & Carmichael.

Well of course WTC will have him racing as a "pro" with a wink wink, but by the "rules" he has to qualify, even if he is a pro cyclist. But as someone else mentioned, I'd be more shocked he actually toes the line at Kona than him winning. I dont even think he gets to the starting line.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

it was confirm in writing by WTC to every pros that Lance would not be given a slot to hawaii to race as a pro without him qualifying like every other professional as to do. So, i have a hard time seeing them coming back on this as they have confirm this to all of us.

That said, i think it was a VERY stupid move of them to do so. Give the dam guy a free spot to the pro race and make it a field of 51men instead of 50...for the good of the sport.....

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Jonathan Caron / Professional Coach / ironman champions / age group world champions
Jonnyo Coaching
Instargram

I wouldn't be too surprised if they let him in. Don't the current rules for pro qualifying include some wild card spots?

If he does a half or full prior to Kona and does well, say first amatuer or top 3 OA I would guess he gets a WC spot.

Sure some would be pissed if they let him have one, but they would say thast he got in based on performance, and that he didn't get in based on celebrity.

Plus that avoids a huge PR move if he twitters how unfair they are (they aren't but the LA worshipers would be beside themselves). Also if he qualified as an AG and did get top three WTC would look like idiots to the general public.

Styrrell

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Styrrell

No, it s pretty much impossible for Lance to qualify to race pro in hawaii. You need to score points as a professional. They will let him race any race as a pro but he would need to WIN 2 or 3 ironman or 1 ironman and a few half ironman to make enough point to break the top 50. Only top 50 make it in. So, it s not about a celebrity spot or him doing a good race.... it s about him having to back up 4-5 amazing race with consistant top finish just to make it in. That is very unlickely.

Current pro rules allowed for wild card for injury with THE SPECIFICATION IN THE RULES THAT NO WILD CARD WILL BE GIVEN TO LANCE AMRMSTRONG TO ENTER HAWAII...... black on white....

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Jonathan Caron / Professional Coach / ironman champions / age group world champions
Jonnyo Coaching
Instargram

Because of the fact that he competed at such a high level in cycling he could probably get his pro card using the "special consideration" criteria, which states:


Otherwise, he'd have to meet one of criteria A-F here: http://www.usatriathlon.org/...thlete-qualification

He's not currently on the list of elite license holders, so he'll have to compete as an age grouper, unless the race organizer gives him some sort of special treatment, which more than likely they would. That list can be found here: http://assets.usoc.org/.../ELITES_MARCH_17.pdf (although it's not completely current I don't think Lance qualified since 3/17, or else we would have heard about it)

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__________________________

I tweet!

I am not Lance... but, I think he gets his ass out the door to train as much as his life will let him... this guy not only trains but does a lot of endorsements and don't forget about the LiveStrong foundation he dedicates a lot of time to promoting...

Lance is starting to remind me of "the new" athlete who will has the ability to move on to other sports which have an equal amount of potential for furthering his athletic career.... Favre... he's a one trick pony - football... Lance... not so much because he is multi-talented and gifted on more levels than a typical athlete.

I'm no LA worshiper, but that's about the funniest doggone thing I have read on ST in a long, long time. Thanks.

I agree... how many opportunities does the sport of IM triathlon get the opportunity to promote itself in a fashion that not would only benefit them economically but help put the sport on a more broad based appeal to other sports. I could be wrong... but, if push came to shove... I bet WTC would change their mind if enough dollars were introduced into the equation... sponsors have a way of making a big difference in the way certain things are done with any sport.

All that aside, what if they do let him in as a AG'er... all the media focus would be pretty much on Lance and would definately put a damper on the pro field... specially if all the comparisons at the end showed he would have won (or even if in the top 10) if adjusting for the lag start.

Either way, WTC will be winner if Lance compete's in an IM... but, WTC could REALLY capitalize on his participation much more so if they allowed him the option of racing AG OR Pro.

Because top TDF caliber pros have trained for years and years 4,5,6 hours per day 6 days a week almost exclusively on the bike year round. No triathlete can even touch one of them on the bike. He'll be at least 5-10 minutes ahead of Lieto.

The big question with LA is whether he can muster up any kind of a decent run. He's done a 2:46 marathon, but it's unlikely that it's going to be anything close to that after he cooks it on the bike.

Either way, WTC will be winner if Lance compete's in an IM... but, WTC could REALLY capitalize on his participation much more so if they allowed him the option of racing AG OR Pro.


By the "rules" it'll be really hard for him to be a "pro", but I think what will happen is Lance will just be there (not really an Pro, but not really an AGer), and oops just happens to start at the very front of the race.

There really is no point in having him in the AG race, if WTC wants to get the most out of Lance. He has to be at the front of the race so that he can lead on the bike, and the media/fans/racers gets all excited and wonders "will he do it"?

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

IF he announces that he will race Kona and IF he makes it to the start line, there is no way in hell he will be racing as an AG'er. It does not even matter if he has "qualified" or not....he will race at the front of the race, period.

Not even the WTC is foolish enough to not capitalize on the LA media train.

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

If he races Tour of California, he'll be qualified. I think that's his plan; one last US bike race, use that to get qualify using as elite license holder, do a 70.3 to show he's almost ready, then come out at Kona going for the win.

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You don't have to like what I say but you should respect my right to say them and I'll do the same to you.

I don't think there is any chacne of him doing ToC. He announced his retirement and made no mention of Cali. He is done with bike racing it appears.

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

How does/would ToC qualify him? Simply being a "elite" in the tri world and racing a 70.3 doenst get him into Kona as a "pro" without WTC simply putting him in.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

JB flew out to see him late in last weeks vacation; says hes working on a special "side project". Im betting he's racing Cali. Why? No pressure, says he's doing it to support Levi, and isn't going for the win. Goes out, gets his license, gets some time in on his legs, easy path to Kona.

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You don't have to like what I say but you should respect my right to say them and I'll do the same to you.

Starting an AG'er with the Pro's would definately be an option... hope WTC considers this if Lance shows up prepared and prefers this option.

As someone showed above in the thread, having a pro card in any of the 3 sports grants reciprocity to USAT. So hed be a pro. Then its just up to WTC on whether or not theyd waive the requirement for him to get into Kona (which seems likely). Of course he could go out and earn the points. Not sure he'd do that though.

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You don't have to like what I say but you should respect my right to say them and I'll do the same to you.

Lake Caroline in Las Colinas, June 1986??? Do you remember the news reports about someone spotting an alligator near the lake the week before the race?

yep... sure do... in fact, I think that same story showed up just before they did one of the Olympic Trial tri race at the same location some 12 or so years later.

At this point, LA at any IM/triathlon event would be fantastic for this sport. It would get more attention than all the past Kona's combined. Every pro, manufacturer and retailer should send an email and encourage and welcome him to join in.

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Dan Kennison

facebook: @triPremierBike
http://www.PremierBike.com
http://www.PositionOneSports.com

I've read a lot of dumb shit on this site over the past 10 years, and this is clearly top-5.

Based on what? He's not going to "qualify" as a pro, unless WTC just puts him in the race. It makes no sense to put him in the AG race, because WTC would lose a huge opportunity to cash in. So like I said he'll just be at Kona, and it wont really matter whether he's a "pro" or "AG", he'll simply be put at the front for obvious reasons.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

Ok, enough about the LA debate.

So is this 48-min 2.4mi IM type swim for real? Or bogus hype? I don't see anything other than a Twitter picture to confirm.

I am curious what a secret ballot of the top 50 IM men would turn up about whether or not to let him race? Would they vote to let him race with them? I can think of valid arguments all around that issue. I do, like you Jonnyo, think it is short sighted to put that in writing if that is what the WTC did. If that is true, they cannot wink at all or risk the last vestiges of respect in the triathlon community, no matter how good or well-received the reversal of the position might be for the sport. Just silly. Or maybe they feel there is a clear concensus among the pro field that an exception cannot be made(?).

Charity slot and not racing against the athletes on the same level? I can't see that being all that enticing to Armstrong. And I think if I were a pro, and there was some guy out there with Armstrong's potential....I'd want him in the same field. Sink or swim for everyone. But that's just how I see it. I might look at it differently if it might take money out of my pocket. I don't know for sure because I'm not confronted with that prospect.

have you raced as a pro or at the top level of anything?
do you know what it takes to do so?
do you have any idea the type of time commitments he has?
if you have please tell. but i'm assuming the answer is no.
none of us can even begin to imagine how hectic his schedule is.
until you have your comments are normative at best and i think it is you who should be walking away.

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�Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a harder battle.� - Plato

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The swim is run by Red Licorice Events in Austin,TX and there is a choice of three distances which are swum in Lake Travis.Lance came in third in the 2.4 mile race in "48 high"..

www.redlicoriceevents.com

I'll let you do the rest of the investigating.

.

There were some worries/rumors/questions from pro's after all this qualifying was announced, and here was basically WTC's response to all the questions regarding pro's having to race alot more while Lance may have just gotten a free slot:

"Wild Card entries will not be used to recover or add any specific athlete (including Alexander, Wellington and Armstrong) if they fail to qualify. We expect to drop Wild Cards once we are assured that the system works. Many athletes were concerned that this provision would be used to qualify Lance Armstrong or other similar athlete into the pro division."

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

WTC is not going to undermine it's legitimacy for Lance. They stated very clearly to their pros they are not going to do what you say they will. You think they are just going to say, "sorry guys we were just kidding"? You vastly underestimate WTC's ego -- they have no intention of cow-towing to Lance and his legion of fans who want to see him race up front. Call Ben, ask him yourself. He's going to tell you NFW. If Lance is in the AG field, he's going off in the AGs. If you think its going to go down differently, pass the smoke.

Wow...interesting. hadn't seen that before. When did they release that?

I have to say, it is extremely short-sighted of them.

---

Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

I have to laugh at the claim of WTC worrying about being "legit". It's a for profit business where they routinely have random people race in their "world championships" that have no business being in it, and you think they are worried about being legit? I certainly think things will be very interesting IF Lance shows up at Kona (which I've stated before, I'll be more surprised if he actually showed up than if he actually won).

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

That was released right after this whole qualifying thing went down (wanna say mid summer last year). Basically it seemed the pro's were most worried that they would have to race more WTC events and thus potentially make them more tired for Kona, while Lance was just going to "show up".

It may be short sighted of them, but I think it's also of the mindset, of what would happen if Lance actually showed up and won? How would the pro's be percieved then? So I think the pro's simply wanted a full level playing field (if Lance can qualify, so be it).

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

Yes, but what your suggesting is so far beyond anything they have ever done it's laughable. They just went through this whole re-org process to provide more legitimacy AND they told their pros they would not just opt Lance in. Lance is not their long term meal ticket. You think they are just going to sleep with some hot chick and expect that their wife won't care.

So Chrissie still has to qualify? Why don't past winners get a slot if they choose to race? Like the Masters golf winners get to play as long as they choose to.

No she wont have to qualify, all she has to do is make sure she gets her WTC events completed (just her validation IM distance races):
Automatic Qualifiers

• Past Kona champions will receive an invitation/exemption to enter the pro division in Kona for a period of five years after their last championship.
• Past champions will not be required to qualify in the KPR during this five-year period.
• Past champions entering as pros will be required to validate their entry by completing one full-distance Ironman race, excluding Kona, during the Qualifying Year.
• Automatic Qualifiers will be accepted into Kona in addition to the 80 pro slots. If, for example, a returning champion is ranked in the top 30 women, the 31st ranked woman will qualify for Kona.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

Of course it's laughable because up until this year WTC simply has done whatever it wants because it's a for profit business. So until WTC actually stands up to Lance and puts him in the AG race, I'll be shocked if he is not at the front of that race. Somehow/someway through sponsor pressure, potential media advertising pressure, I think he'll be at the front (again, this is a big IF, he is even at the race).

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

Except that's already what they told him and their pros. You don't seem to get it.

Why don't you name all the AGers they have let race pro in Kona?

I have no clue (assuming it's ever happened which is doubtful). Again, they can say all they want to, but until it's the day of the race and they put Lance in the AG race and lose the opportunity to have Lance at the front and not in some pack, I'll be very skeptical of all of this (again, assuming he even makes the start, which I'm guessing is more of an issue than anything).


BTW, I posted what WTC said in response to the "will Lance get a pass" worry that the pro's had. Yes, they've said he has to qualify if he wants to be a pro, but like I said due to potential sponsor pressure, potential media presence, I'll be very skeptical that WTC actually keeps Lance off the front start.

Edit: That's why I said, it's really not going to matter how Lance is classified. I think somehow someway Lance is put at the front of this race to start.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

I rode over to Mansfield Dam this morning as our group ride goes right past where they were doing the swim. I have a friend who did the 1.2 mile swim and went to check out the race. I did indeed see Lance, Cotter, and James Bonney come out of the water. Here are the official results. 49 minutes for Lance - not too bad. Not sure if the course is short or not, but they were in wetsuits. I did the 5K swim there last spring and was told that their course measurements are legit.

1. James Bonney 00:48:50 ( 2.4 Mile Swim Open F)
2. James Cotler 00:49:02 ( 2.4 Mile Swim Open M)
3. Lance Armstrong 00:49:12 ( 2.4 Mile Swim Open M)
4. Robert Alford 01:01:21 ( 2.4 Mile Swim Open M)
5. Greorge Scmite 01:01:50 ( 2.4 Mile Swim Open M)
6. Brian Buraas 01:06:20 ( 2.4 Mile Swim Open M)
7. Travis Rimel 01:06:30 ( 2.4 Mile Swim Open M)
8. Tom Fornoff 01:06:48 ( 2.4 Mile Swim Open F)
9. Michael Clark 01:06:50 ( 2.4 Mile Swim Open F)
10. Joshua Badgett 01:07:07 ( 2.4 Mile Swim Open M)

In response to : You think they are just going to sleep with some hot chick and expect that their wife won't care.

Man I do not think you could count how many guys are paying alimony for exactly that thought.

I never said he could qualify as a pro. I still think that they may (not will, may) find a way to let him start with the tro pros. Didn't they say, in black and white, that they would let people who paid extra get in (the passport club). They changed their mind on that, so they could change on LA.

Styrrell

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Styrrell

Yawn. Excuses, excuses. Like I said before, he will not do Kona - his run will not be good enough and he will back out, or he will get injured trying. Most likely the rest of his year will be devoted to staying out of prison. I think it's 50/50 he avoids it, but if I had to bet I will go with prison time. We'll see in a year, won't we. Until then, you all can continue to be impressed with what he hasn't done yet...

I'll bet you are one step away from getting banned from this forum for that dumb-ass post.

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**All of these words finding themselves together were greatly astonished and delighted for assuredly, they had never met before**

Why is it there always seems to be someone who decides to post something juvenile, adds nothing and intends to just piss on everything including themselves...{heavy sigh}

Jan, is this you?

What did he say that was ban-able? Surely he's allowed to have an opinion as to whether a person will be able to train properly for Kona - particularly someone who has had injury trouble when bumping up the running.

And unless you have been living under a rock, if things don't fall his way this year, Lance is in trouble. There are still fanboys who love him, but he's not the Mr Popular he once was. Partiucularly with the press - many of which have abandoned him like rats off a ship.

I was at that OWS and not to take anything away from Lance but the course was not well organized and there was a turn that a lot of people missed and it cut almost 600M off the course. When I first heard his finish time I wondered if that was the case. Look at the results that were posted above. I was 9th overall and swam with a pack of about 4 and we all made that little 600M turn. Look at the difference in times from the top 3 to the rest. There is like 12-13 minutes difference. Maybe they were super fast but another factor was wind. The wind on the lake was 20 MPH into our faces for half the race. I just don't see the times being that fast in those conditions.

Either way I was surprised to see that he was that fast in the water. Look at IM results for Kona and over the last few years only 1 or 2 people went under 50 minutes.

I suggest that you look at the Ironman swim pedigree of James Bonney who Lance was swimming with to see if the swim time was legit before you start suggesting that he may have cut the course short.

.

You make it sound like I am accusing them of cheating. I am not suggesting that. I just know the course was not well marked and the race was disorganized. They put the bouys in 10 minutes before the start and told everyone the course route probably 2 minutes before the gun went off. I have talked to several friends that did not know about the turn and cut the course too. I don't really care if they did or not. I get nothing out of it. It was more like a training swim than anything else. No prizes. Not even a T-Shirt. Plus I will never be as fast as any of those guys even if I had a rocket strapped to my back. I just wanted to point out some of the discrepencies that I saw because I was there.

No,you made it sound like they MAY have missed a little loop because you were surprised that they could swim that fast in those conditions.

James Bonney has swum sub 50min multiple times in Ironmans and the guy who finished ten seconds in front of Lance is a Kiwi pro who won the Steelhead IM70.3 race last year (his name is actually James Cotter, not Cotler).Based on how well Lance hung with those two guys it is pretty safe to say that Lance could in fact hang with the main pack of pros in any Ironman race in Nth America.

I'll let the ST pro's pitch in to see if they agree or not.

.

I'm not a pro, just an Ager, but that's good enough for me. I had my doubts, but you are right, if he can hang with those guys then he can hang with the pros at Kona on the swim, that is.

Dope

I was there, and I can tell you that they did the entire course. They did not cut it short.

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-------------------------------------------------------------- Quote directed to me..."You don't have to do an ironman to prove your life is worth living..."

I knew I should have timed "fastest (non-race) thread to 100 posts..."

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"Non est ad astra mollis e terris via." - Seneca | rappstar.com | FB - Rappstar Racing | IG - @jordanrapp

Hard to say how his run will be but I don't think a hard bike leg will hurt his run as much as people seem to think. As a long time cyclist and dabbler in running, I can say that I feel just as fresh and a whole lot looser running after a 75mi hard bike ride than I do without the bike ride. I did a bunch of runs over the last couple of months with some of my buddies training for tris and they kept complaining about how tight their muscles felt. I think I gotta start all my runs off with a 75 mile ride.

miscalculated distance or not... Lance hung with the pros... all things being relatively equal in those terms... Lance does show he is not a slacker as a swimmer... not even close. And, quite honestly... that shouldn't be a surprise since Lance start out as a talented swimmer before he became a very talented young triathlete... and, that's before he became a super talented biker...

BTW, if you have the strong winds as you described... I can almost bet every swim will be off by some margin of error. Bouys will frequently drift with strong winds.... and when this happens, I always hope they drift in favor of shorting the course for everyone :-o

If you're a pro and don't see the benefit of lining up next to LA, you need to have your head examined. Win, lose or tie, it's going to mean more money in your pocket in the long run.

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You forget though that WTC is owned by a private equity group trying to build up market share and flip this in a few years for a tidy profit. Lance certainly does fit into their plans.

Why don't you name all of the past TDF winners that have raced Kona?

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__________________________________________________
Hunter Robinson
http://www.twitter.com/el_slice
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And you forget that my b-school rommie is an MD there. This is what I do for a living.

In LA's defense, he is not competing in any race for him; It will be FOR LIVESTRONG!

LA is a buisness man. Lets get this clear, what ever race he decides to do will have VERY certain ties to making LIVESTRONG more proffitable and that particular race. If LA shows up at a race, it will ultimatley mean LIVESTRONG is going to benefity from it. Who knows the payout on either end?

I'm a Lance fan 100% at heart, but there are financial gaines to be had.

Happy to be the bearer of bad news, but unless Lance races pro he's not that interesting to WTC, creds or otherwise.

Livestrong is a non-profit organization.

You are insinuating LA is a cheat and a thief. Which is fine, but just say that.

If he were a business man, which I believe he is, he would derive his income from legit endeavours, which I believe he has.

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I'm faster in Kilometers!
Wattie Ink Triathlon Team
Powered by Accelerate 3

It was a pretty choppy and windy day. We did make the turn though :)

Clearly.

Let's be semi-reasonable. There are many, much more effective ways to get the Livestrong name out there than racing triathlons.

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Isn't the answer to your question 20 hours and 30 minutes?

Mr. Cotter,
Since you were there swimming with Lance can you add some color to this conversation?

In your opinion what are the chances Lance races Kona this year?

Thanks!

Your not bearing anything... I don't buy that... if the media is interested... then WTC will be interested... if not... then they're morons... and, I they are NOT morons - at all. The fans, the media and the sponsors dictate the interest. Your analysis has the tail wagging the dog.

I'm not sure why a claim that Lance wants Livestrong to profit is insinuating a he's a cheat and a thief.

In any case, Livestrong.com is a for-profit organization.

Because profiting and raising funds are two entirely different things. He was saying that Livestrong and LA would "profit" from this action.

We are obviously talking about the Livestrong Charity which is a 501C...not Livestrong.com.....

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I'm faster in Kilometers!
Wattie Ink Triathlon Team
Powered by Accelerate 3

If you want to take offense, you surely can find it offensive. Shirley.

Maybe you meant the Lance Armstrong Foundation which is an actual charity. Confusing isn't it?

Between this thread, the last 2 lance threads, and ML's return, ST has been a great place to be this week when not on the back of a bike or in the pool. (any place is a better place than running).

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You don't have to like what I say but you should respect my right to say them and I'll do the same to you.

Not really.....from the site:

LIVESTRONG.COM vs LIVESTRONG.ORG?
The Lance Armstrong Foundation will continue to support cancer survivorship and call on our nation's leaders to wage a new war against cancer through LIVESTRONG.ORG. LIVESTRONG.COM is a practical resource to find a wealth of health-related information from a wide range of sources, and is a proactive way to have a daily conversation about being healthy and living an active lifestyle.
While LIVESTRONG.ORG remains a nonprofit, LIVESTRONG.COM is a for-profit that derives its revenue from advertising and member subscriptions.

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I'm faster in Kilometers!
Wattie Ink Triathlon Team
Powered by Accelerate 3

This is where your naive. WTC thinks they are NASCAR, where the tail does wag the dog.

I have to weight in on this. While I think Lance is considerably faster than the top triathletes on the bike, I dont think its as big of a margin as everyone thinks. Did anyone see the Tour of California time trial. Lieto, McCormick and even Wellington were in it. McCormick finished 56th which is pretty damn respectable, and Lieto flatted with a couple of miles to go. At the half way point he was up with the top 10. Even Chrissie finished in 50 minutes which was only 9 minutes behind the leader.

You forget that the Pro Tour riders have ridden 700 hard miles prior to that final time trial. I don't think Chrissie, Macca or Lieto would even be in the same time zone had they raced 6 days and 700+ miles prior to that final TT.

Macca lost 5 minutes in 20 miles......while you can't extrapolate that directly to 112 miles (duh...completely different intensity level), to me that is a pretty big time gap over a longer distance.

---

Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Lieto sometimes stage races in the off season. regardless, pro triathletes are pro triathletes and pro cyclists are pro cyclists. There's a reason why each group is better at what they do. No doubt Lance Armstrong will have one of the best rides ever at Kona, a la Steve Larsen. I also think however, that some of the uber bikers could stay on his wheel, so if he races it will be a game changer.

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Well if your opinion is valid... then, I guess the best phrase is... sometimes, you just can't fix stupid.

I think lance wants to stay relevant so he can continue to bring attention to Livestrong. Once he stops competing at "something" interest in Livestrong drops off pretty quickly. I don't think he is doing 2.4mi OW swim races to stay fit, he has a purpose. WTC would be making a huge mistake by not letting him race from the front, however they categorize his entry. Hell, Versus may even get live coverage if Lance races. I know I will be glued to ironman.com along with 95% of ST'ers

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John

Lance is not a sustainable asset. He'll be there one year, two at most, and then gone. His sponsors will leave with him. WTC has no trouble selling out their races, hawking you there goods, pawning you off on their vendors. They don't need Lance to make money. In fact, the way Lance works he will make money of himself, but you won't -- that's the price he extracts. However, as many here suggest they will torch all the goodwill they have with their athletes. How is this good for WTC? Explain the quality of earnings to me. Don't try too hard because the math does not work.

Lance will not help to sell merchandise. He will sell TV time. There is a reason that the purse at Kona is 1.5 million and Arizona is $50,000, and that kind of money does not come from entry fees. Its because its covered by NBC and with a major network spot comes sponsors like Ford and K-swiss and Timex. If Lance competes in Kona the number of people that watch NBCs coverage will probably triple, and so will the money that WTC will get for selling the rights to NBC to cover the event.

explain what? the obvious... hmmmm.... I think I will just stick with... sometimes, you just can't fix stupid

There is a reason that the purse at Kona is 1.5 million //

Really? Are we talking Pesos here??

I'd be curious if Lance raced, if they actually charge for any and all coverage (even the online continous feed) the years he is doing it. (I assume it's free currently).

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

Then you have no real business sense. You just want Lance to race so you all your buddies at work/the gym/your church/whatever can identify with what you do. Lance does nothing economically for WTC, so there can't be any other explanation. If Lance costs WTC money, I don't see how being ambivalent about his participation is, in your words, "stupid".

Tony Martin was about 10% faster than Macca. Is there any reason you couldn't just extrapolate that over 112 miles? Tony Martin and Lance were pretty close in 2009.

Are you really saying that Lance racing in Kona wont give WTC a huge opportunity with marketing/advertising/media coverage (and they wont take advantage of that)? Edit: That is where I think we differ. I think WTC will simply "do what it has to do", to take advantage of having Lance in the race, while you seem to suggest that Lance Armstrong will just be "racer # 456 and thats it.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

I wasnt trying to say that Lance would easily have the fastest bike split, I was saying that I dont think it will be as big of a landslide as some people think. How many minutes did Lieto finish ahead of Macca in Kona last year. I know it wasnt 10% but it was likely close to 4 or 5. While I dont think Lieto will hang with Lance, I think he may give him a run for his money. Especially if he puts a few minutes on him in the swim.

This is the point to take home. Selling all spots and merchandise doesn't matter, selling TV-rights does. How much does a network have to pay to broadcast the superbowl? How much for Kona? Not that I know, but I assume there's quite a difference.

I would also assume that "selling" Kona to the American public is easier than the TdF. Instead of three weeks of delayed broadcasts, you can have a quick summary of the swim and first half of the bike and then have quite a nice evening of TV.

That's for you in America of course. For us in Europe it will still suck.

Come on folks. TV is how the world of big sports function. Lance+Kona=ratings! When he wins, our sport just might join the big time.

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STIndiana
America Multi-Sport, Inc.
America's Half June 10, 2017
USAT RD Century Club
http://www.americamultisport.com

If he rocks up and wins, what does it say to Joe Public about the quality of the MPRO field? I think it takes a step back in the public eye before it takes a step forward.

However, he still has to qualify doesn't he? WTC stated outright that there would be no wildcards to bypass the points system and I'm sure they said specifically that there would be no LAS in the MPRO field unless he signed up and scored the points like everyone else. I assume they keep AG spots for personalities and hard-luck stories; they could give him one of those, but he starts with us. Still gets him off the bike with some decent MPRO triathletes he can run with.

Personally, I hope the WTC have the nuts to tell him he isn't welcome to any special treatment and he has to sit by his PC on active.com a year in advance like the rest of us. Mind you, for the record, I also hope Novitsky nails him and he won't have access to active.com where they send him.

My point taken and one thing is CERTAIN. Judging by the Slowtwitch Threads Popularity, LANCE's ratings are off the roof. His Tweets have more hits then everyone on the net.

Love em or Hate em...YOUR GONNA BE TUNED IN! The TV and cable industry knows this. You can not deny that America wants to see him look back one more time!

Lance is paid BIG money to speek at different types of events. My question, will "Versus" or "NBC" pay him to compete and do some interviews? I would think so...

I just threw up in my mouth. Just a little.

Damn. Just threw up in my mouth again. Just a little more this time.

Please stop...

I'm confused. I thought the WTC was a business, in the business of making money....more money....forever. I am trying to think of a business that doesn't want to expand it's customer base to have higher profits...I am having problems thinking of one, maybe ytu can help me out?

Apparently I'm a real idiot because I don't understand how letting someone race Kona as a pro who has not earned his spot, and who will be fighting drug charges, is good for our sport, especially if he is later found guilty. If that happens, even the fanboys here will see him as one of the biggest sporting pariahs in history. Yeah, folks and money will then flood to triathlon if he is associated with it....

Lots of ifs and buts in that little tirade.

That opportunity will be short lived and Lance will extract the premium proceeds, as a result WTC will see little benefit. Further, that benefit will do nothing to improve its value (remember its owned by private equity, which wants to grow and sell) in the eyes of the marketplace that matters. WTC is not going to pave the way for Lance to simply walk-in, line up next to the pros, and race unless he has a pro-card and has qualified through their system (possible, but seems remote). If WTC is not going to benefit financially in the long run, and no one has articulated a basis for how it will, then Lance will race with the AGers (again if he qualifies) and life will go on.

Lance is in the business of Lance, not in helping others make money off him.

Show me how WTC makes more money and we will have something to discuss. Maybe you can start by outlining the long term positive impact for the New York City Marathon of having Lance participate; that should take you a while.

As opposed to so many other people out there that aren't out for number 1.

Whatever dude. Keep swingin' tarzan. Even more ifs and buts associated with LA's lack of a decent run.

Seriously? How many of us got into this sport solely because of the NBC broadcast of Kona? Advertised correctly and how many more people could see Lance race? thousands? Hundred thousand? How many of those then want to race an Ironman? I can't help it if you are short sighted.

Exactly.

But, but. but.... I can feel the excuses coming already.

I only read a couple of the posts so excuse me if I am repeating what someone else stated or missed the point of this but here's something to chew on:

WTC can make more money in the short term simply by selling more advertising space for their event coverage, broadcast, etc. They can attract additional sponsors that are outside the world of triathlon. Even if it is for 1 year as the sponsors are trying to cash in on the publicity, media, awareness that Lance will bring on the media side of things, WTC can see the beginnings of a longer relationship.

Where are they going to put the races? There is very little capacity. These people end up putting money into the pockets of other race management organizations; that is bad for WTC. I can't help it if you are naive.

I sure hope they will let Michael Phelps race Kona as a pro. He has proved as much in IM triathlon as LA has. Oh wait, I forgot, only the bike matters here on ST. And Ryan Hall too.

Yeah, you're correct. There is no money in licensing.

How much Ironman toothpaste have you bought?

I am not currently their customer base. But you are getting the idea now....

Yes, I see Livestrong/Ironman toothpaste/mouthwash combo packs at Costco being a huge hit.

yup, the Ironman Expo does really poorly. As does the Timex Ironman watches.

I think it is funny you believe this. Ironman sells so little licensed product that it doesn't even show up in IRI data.

Which brings us back to my original point of expansion = more customers = more money (potentially).
Obviously your mind is made up so I won't waste me time.

I believe Livestrong. com is owned by Nike.
Here is a video of the swim finish:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiUXTm7Ni0A

I believe WTC pays out $$ to have Kona broadcast on NBC.
Put Lance on the start line and I suspect they now have a product to sell to the networks.

I'm sure Lance knows this. He charge the Tour Down Under $2M to appear. What do you think he would charge WTC?

I'm not sure what your point is. Michael Phelps is not training to be a triathlete. Nor does he have a history as a triathlete. Nor has he run a marathon in the past few years (that i'm aware of) nor has he trained on his bike. This isn't really a comparison is it.

Livestrong.com is owned by Demand Media - who also own eHow.com, etc...

Livestrong.com is a for-profit website that pulls content that they think appeal to the Livestrong audience and sells advertising space on the site and takes revenue from links on the site.

Lance and LAF reportedly have an ownership of livestrong.com but also receive money from Demand Media for licensing the Livestrong name.

Do you understand that a 501(c)(3) can have a profit? They do not have to pay out everything they bring in.

Apparently you missed the title of this thread and the associating results by the man you love to hate (hate him or love him, he can swim). Or have missed the seven tours he won. Or, more importantly, have apparently forgotten how he got his start in cycling (triathlon if your memory is too minimal in capacity).

A man that is dedicated enough to put in the time, energy and potentially have doped (an example of a win at all costs type of attitude) to win seven tours can surely compete in kona if he puts his mind to it given his background. I'm not sure how you can even argue that legitimately apart from repeatedly telling everyone how you've just thrown up in your mouth. That makes sense though given your handle.

Its taxing to hate so much...let it go.

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"One Line Robert"

Yes, I do understand that....geez...this isn't a 501C discussion. The guy I originally responded to was insinuating that Lance profits from LAF and Livestrong.org.....He does not. Just because a 501c can make a profit (duh) doesn't mean they can distribute that profit however they want...as he was stating. Enough of the thread jack,....I just wanted to point out that I felt his opinion was wrong about Lances motivation. Using the word "profit" was incorrect in that context. Let's get back to Lance winning multiple Ironman's and swimming with Andy Potts...much more entertaining.

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Don't hate LA at all, unless he turns out to be a cheat, but the jury is still out on that. I'm actually enormously impressed by his ability to run sub-3 after 20 years of doing nothing but cycling. Amazing actually. What I find nauseating is the fanboyism for someone who has yet to do a tri. People are talking about him as though he could win, yet hasn't shown the ability to run decent despite doing it for the past 3 years (no, 2:46 open marathon is not decent for a world class endurance athlete, it's pedestrian). My point is that Michael Phelps, whose accomplishments in the pool are every bit as impressive in LA's on the bike, has proven as much in the Ironman arena as LA, which to say is nothing at all. Nothing. 1 disciplines does not a World Champion make, 2 disciplines does not a champion make, and even 3 disciplines does not a champion make unless you can keep your nutrition down and put it all together race day. And don't even try to convince me that fueling in a 3-5 hour a day stage race is remotely similar to fueling in an even that goes over 8 hours, where the last 3 or so are running.

LA - one of the top 5 greatest cyclists ever (if it is not eventually proven he was dirty), excellent swimmer, mediocre runner, and not a triathlete. Oh but I forgot, he will win Kona this fall. What an amazing level of delusion!

Dude, give it up. No one here is saying he is the king of the world and is going to dominate Ironman racing.

The most that has been said is he's a strong swimmer and an excellent biker which* could put him as a front-runner at T2.

GMAN said "If Lance can swim around :50, the only person he'd really need to catch on the bike would be Potts and that wouldn't take very long. Then he's off. If that were to happen, it would be very interesting to see what the strategy of the others would be. Give Lance a 15-20 minute lead and it could be over. Try to keep Lance in their sights and they could pay dearly on the run."

You stand corrected. You're welcome.

This kind of idiotic statement may be why people are pegging you as a hater and ignoring any other part of your argument. Michael Phelps won a bunch of gold medals in sprint distance swimming races. He has never done a triathlon, never been reported do any bike races or train on the bike, never been reported to do any running races or train for running.

Armstrong, on the other hand, started his racing career as a professional triathlete and won the sprint national championships. He recently raced a 2.4 mile open water swim and posted an impressive time while staying with a pair of excellent swimmers. He's working with a well-respected running coach and has posted three respectable open mary times. Saying that Phelps has proven as much in the IM arena as Armstrong is demonstrably false and pretty damn absurd.

Speaking of those open mary times, you need to pick an argument and stick to it. Either a 2:46 was "pedestrian" (implying that, despite his aerobic engine, Armstrong can't do any better) or he didn't train enough and he's too lazy to get out the door and take it seriously (implying that he could have gone significantly faster, else why train harder). You can certainly argue one or the other, but you keep flopping back and forth between the two. So which is it? Can Armstrong run faster than 2:46 but he's not dedicated, or is he just too slow compared to the pro triathletes?

You stand as an idiot. Do you understand the difference between "dominate" and "it could be over?"

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"Go yell at an M&M"

And more fuel for the fire. James Bonney's twitter following the swim:
"@juanpelota great swim. It was a solid ice breaker for the IM distance. Next time opt for the light weight waffles post-race."

Kona? Not necessarily. Despite my comments arguing what his prospects may be there, I'm pretty skeptical that Armstrong is gearing up for Kona this year. As for one of the other IM races though, I don't buy that this is just an idle comment on Bonney's part

ETA: Cotter's twitter as well:
"Fast 2.4 mile swim with @jamesbonney and @juanpelota today. They both put me in the hurt. Juan will be FOP in any 70.3/IM swim."

  
Yeah, "it could be over" at Kona is not dominance. Yeah, any old pro can do that. I stand corrected!!!! Talk about an idiot.

Umm. How many IM's have Phelps and Armstrong done? Answer? Zero. What has Armstrong proved in the IM arena? Till you've done one, nothing. Zero. Fact is that I'm a more accomplished IM athlete than he is, and so is the guy who barely cracks 17 hours. Man, this is like talking to my 3 year old.

2:46 is pedestrian. I didn't say LA didn't get out the door, LA said he didn't get out the door. He says now he was only running 20-30 a week. I suspect he ran more, as do many runners, but simply isn't very good and is making excuses, but I'm going by what he has said since no one really knows but him. Can he run faster? Probably, if he run trains (which he hasn't done much of apparently, either because he can't or he won't). I don't know which, nor do I care. How much faster can he run if her trains? No idea. I doubt much, based on the fact that he already has the engine in place. Just speculation on my part, but until he becomes a serious triathlete, which he is not, it's just conjecture.

Wake me up when he actually does a triathlon.

I stand by my prediction. LA does not toe the line in Kona this year, and he never cracks the top 10 ever. You are free to put this up and ridicule me if he does. Rest assured I'm going to pull this out as soon as he announces he is not racing it this year. My guess is that we will hear something by June. T

This is good stuff. Don't stop now, keep it coming.

All it shows is your ignorance. He has done more than cycling over the past 20 years.

To say that he is in any way shape or form an average participant is plain ignorant (like you're a more accomplished triathlete).

I don't think anyone is saying he has a realistic chance of winning, just that his swim is very good, his biking speaks for itself, his run needs some improvement, but I don't think his run will suffer from a full out bike pace as much as some folks think it will.

Give up, man. You ARE talking to three year olds. The amount of love on this site for Armstrong is disturbing.

I hope he does it and wins!

Why the haters? Do you think the average lay person knows any "pro" triathletes... i just read that blog by Mac Brown and first thought was who the F is this guy, and why do I care? Second thought while reading, who the F is Jordan Rapp? Never heard of either of them. Love it or hate it LA is one of the most recognized faces in the World, and I think it can only do good things for the sport of triathlon.

Lance, if your reading this... qualify as an age grouper... do kona as an age grouper... beat, no, humiliate the pros... and retire... again.

As a side note, I come from a running background so cycling and swimming are always second and third in priorities for me. I like doing tris but would not call myself one of you. In college, I personally thought the people who called themselves "triathletes" were the biggest wimps... in that they always made excuses for their performance in workouts because they had to do a 40k bike or 4000m swim before running... blah blah blah. I would love to see a hard core cyclist like Lance go out there and dominate...

And with the whole "drug" thing... do they even test in ironman triathlon?

Time to start the popcorn...

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Seen on ST: NOTSOSWUYD: None of the secrets of success work unless you do.

Seriously? He won seven Tours. I think he (and his team) may know a thing or two about nutrition and racing.

Maybe you can give him a few pointers? You know, to help the kid out.

Oh yeah, he's done some serious run training in the off-season, I forgot. Geesh. He didn't even, according to him, run 30 a week when he had retired from cycling and he was supposedly training "seriously" for his first marathon. And I'm supposed to believe he did more when he was a cyclist? Yawn.....

I am a more accomplished IM triathlete (I said IM athlete Einstein). I've done one. No actually I've done a lot more than one. Wake me when he does one please. Yawn.

You don't think anyone his said he has a serious chance of winning? You can't be serious. Now I know you are a three year old.

I'll be here all night. Try the veal.

You and many others have said this, and let me be the first to point out that this pearl of wisdom is based on absolutely nothing.

Seriously? You think keeping food coming and being absorbed after riding 5 hours on a bike is the same as riding 5 hours on a bike and then running for 3 hours? If so, go join Lehner in the corner. By extension, you apparently think every pro at Kona who has blown up from nutritional issues somehow knows much less about fueling and keeping stuff processing than LA does. That's really funny actually. How many pros have fueling issues during the bike in a typical IM? A couple. How many struggle with it during the run?

Have you even done one????

Nope. Apparently I'm not man enough. Thanks for warning me though. Carry on; you're doing great!

How fast do you think Norman Stadler would run an open marathon in? I thought i say a youtube video of him running German in hi 2:30's?

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John

Yes. You have more balls than Lance too.
Means nothing.


I'm not going through the whole thread again but actually I don't think anyone says he has a serious chance of winning.

Can he go under 8.30? Maybe - he certainly has the single-sport performances to suggest this.
Huge difference between this and winning though. I'm pretty sure everyone here has acknowledged that.

Saying his performance could force pros to rethink their gameplans (as some have suggested) is not the same as saying he can win it.

I really don't know, but what matters is that he can run mid to low 2:50's in the Hawaii heat after 5-6 hours of going hard. I would guess that if most of these guys trained for an open marathon for a few months most could probably pull of mid 2:30's, maybe some in the low 2:30's. Not many, if any, under that. Point is that these guys only trail off by 20 or so minutes. LA? No data, and I suspect there never will be.

No such thing as a "lesser Ironman". 140.6 is 140.6.

So what do you think he is out there doing 2.4mile open water swims for? Are you suggesting he is just trying to stay fit? Or you saying he is just going to quit trying? based on his track record of being a quitter?

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John

Like I've said before, I'm sure he's testing the waters, but I doubt he will do an IM if he can't be competitive. He knows he can swim and ride, so it comes down to whether his run can improve enough. I've said repeatedly that it won't (or it would have already), so he will either just not enter, or he will get injured trying to improve. Of course I could be wrong, but I stand by my prediction. I will revive this thread either way come October, you can bet on it. If he does do Kona, it will be as an AG and not a pro. I'm not afraid to put it out for others to ridicule, but all I see here is a lot of distant manloving by fanboys.

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But the pro competition can vary dramatically which I'm sure you know is what he meant.(mainly because that is also what he said)

.

I don't have anything to add to this riveting discussion, but just wanted to say I love your work. WTG!

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Did you kit up before you wrote that or were you just wearing the yellow?

Yes, being a top level troll can be very tiring.

So you are tired...............About you being a better IM athlete. Because he hasn,t done one,,,,,, You do know there are some top coaches in many athletic fields that have not done the exact distances that they coach there athletes. So those are all coaches that that specific athlete is stupid to have coach? Are you Speedracer1's alter ego?
Under your logic, Eddy Merckx should not coach a ToC guy. Anyone who did the ToC is a better ToC athlete than Eddy. So Eddy does not know shit about the Toc or ToG. Right? So is green Barf someting you get while thinking?
Remember Lance did do Tri's and I will bet he was more accomplished than you at the distances he did. If not please post your results to his.And I will admit my error

I would give my left nut to swim that fast.

Here is my question, is Lance's contention correct, meaning, if he can get himself to run a 2:50-2:55, he will win? By my calculations, that could be 8:10ish, right?

While I am not sure he can get there, Salazar's help or not, I love how he viewed the race from the desired result.

Also, Lance posted on FB that he was shooting the Running World cover, I guess he is working on his run, sort of.

There's the hole in your logic: will he have to "go hard" on the bike to be out front if his swim is even close to what he did in that race the other day? My guess is no.

You can say all you want about him "toeing the line" but he wouldn't be putting all the effort in if he wasn't going to do it. He could spend his times in more productive ways around Livestrong or whatever.

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You don't have to like what I say but you should respect my right to say them and I'll do the same to you.

What would Lance need to do to qualify legitimately as a Pro? If he were to win an IM somewhere, would he qualify as a Pro?

http://ironmanpromembership.com/kpr/

Basically top 40 (and maybe some wildcards) will get you in to Kona. You get 5 WTC events to score as many points as you can get, with 1 race having to be the IM distance (Kona can count for points, but not the IM requirement for that year).

In short, it's basically going to be very very hard for him to actually qualify by the standards WTC currently has as a pro. Now if he races the IM Texas and gets a top 3 (which would be a hell of an accomplishment), it be very close to making the top 40 (there are a few guys in the top 40 that are past champions, so they would not count I dont think for the top 40). But Lance's problem is going to be, the guys that are close to qualifying are still going to be racing more, so Lance would probaly have to race 1 IM distance and 2-3 70.3's.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

It looks like it will take 2 full Ironman races to qualify since only up to 3 of your top five races can be 70.3 distance. Also, it appears WTC really wants a deep pro field for IM Texas since it is the only US P4000 race.

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

I would like to see Lance kick some ass in Kona and put a beat down on the pro's there.

I see Rapp's right near the 40 cut line. Any word on if he is going to try and keep it up to make to Kona?

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

Why? To prove somehow that the current crop of pros are really poseurs, and not really world class athletes, or is it something else? Either way, this is the right thread for you, because, well, you're a douchebag.

I do agree with you on 1 thing....Lance getting to the start line will be a bigger surpise to me than him coming top 10. At this point, with how big everything has become and the rumors/speculation, it really is beginning to potentially look like a huge letdown for alot of people when/if Lance simply doenst do it.

BTW, dont resort to that level of petty name calling. I would hope your better than that.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

Actually, I'm not you moron. ;) (I guess I'm too used to posting on letsrun!)

Instead you are the stuff people flush down the toilet.

He doesn't say 2011, but...

http://triathlon.competitor.com/...icago-marathon_25472

Now that is interesting... because what I think it says between the lines is that his coaching is geared toward competing (most likely at a pro level) in an IM... with Kona being the primary goal... no different than his basic training strategy when going for the yellow jersey.

You don't even need count to seven. Two or three is enough.
Dr Ferrari, Bruyneel & Carmichael.

I wonder if they will make a comeback together?

From Lance's twitter just about 2hrs ago in reply to Chicago Tri Club "@ChicagoTriClub no Kona for me. Unless hangin out, riding bikes, and swimming w/ whales over the holidays count.

Guess that settles it.

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http://www.facebook.com/ReconFoundationTeam
http://www.facebook.com/MarineReconFoundation
http://www.reconfoundation.org

Yep. Just as I suspected. If he is serious about going the IM route someday, I'm wondering why he is hitting marathon after marathon, rather than becoming a good runner first. Part of becoming a good runner is racing frequently enough, typically with a good dose of races from the 5k to half marathon, and yet he rarely does these. Makes me think he's just doing marathons to keep in shape, rather than using them to prepare for an IM.

Not to derail the thread, but is your quote in your signature real? If so, it's classic. Where'd you get it from?

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___________________________
And the road gets rocky along the way
But if it gets too smooth, it's time to call it a day
-Kinks

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzPq0hDdDhs

We have no idea what his current actual run training looks like. For all we know he may be knocking out some stellar 5k,10k and half marathon pieces but has chosen to avoid the media circus that happens anytime he shows up to race. Would you agree that it's not so much the actual races that matter but doing the appropriate training?

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

It's from the Specialized commercial from last year's TdF, try to look it up on youtube. It's pretty hilarious.

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http://www.facebook.com/ReconFoundationTeam
http://www.facebook.com/MarineReconFoundation
http://www.reconfoundation.org

@Lance Armstrong
Ran race #2 in the Santa Barbara Trail Series this. Was advertised to be 8.5 miles. Felt like 20. The downhills absolutely killed me.

Tweet 4/9/2011

Hugh - It does appear Lance is racing various run distances and type...

And the word was that most of the 34 other participants didn't realize who he was during the race.........
just another runner.

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

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You mean that there wasn't a television network there broadcasting live coverage?But,but it was Lance and the race director could have made millions on the tv rights..;-)


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The Zazoosh photo guy is peeing himself right now.

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blog: transitionfour.com
twitter: @tritweeter

These posts are really funny for over a year people are whining how can Lance get in Kona without qualifying. Please I am not pro or anti Lance but i mean really he has won the tour 7 times. His marathon time of 2:45 is a marginal time for an elite but ther just is so much hype surrounding this entrance to the race. he wants to do it let hiim in. His entrance to the sport will show really how different our sport is and how good the top athletes are. I mean if the top couple of girls beat him then it shows the validity of our athletes. I remember him racing in the 90's and he was a good triathlete.The fact that he is a supreme fundraiser and that CTS has worked with the WTC make it a given that he gains entry.

I can't speak for the top pros but I am sure they want him the race sooner than later. He is a pretty good athlete but he will not win it. He probably does not even think that but he will make the race interesting

He will not race because he will not want to get chicked by Chrissie.

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__________________________________________________
Official Polar Ambassador
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Being sensible on Slowtwitch is not allowed so give yourself a time out..;-)

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rah rah rasputin
i swear i thought you wrote lance and boney M were training

From the way the pro's were all worried about this new "qualifying" standards for the pro's getting into Kona, it seems like many of the pros didnt want him to race at all (or atleast have a "free" pass to Kona, while they have to qualify).

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

I think if he races and they prove the point the pros and the sport will benefit. if he were to win which I think is finding lightning in a bottle it could be devasting to the sponsorship of the top guys but that is highly unlikely. It should show how good the top guys are now.