Dude, give it up. No one here is saying he is the king of the world and is going to dominate Ironman racing.

The most that has been said is he's a strong swimmer and an excellent biker which* could put him as a front-runner at T2.

GMAN said "If Lance can swim around :50, the only person he'd really need to catch on the bike would be Potts and that wouldn't take very long. Then he's off. If that were to happen, it would be very interesting to see what the strategy of the others would be. Give Lance a 15-20 minute lead and it could be over. Try to keep Lance in their sights and they could pay dearly on the run."

You stand corrected. You're welcome.

This kind of idiotic statement may be why people are pegging you as a hater and ignoring any other part of your argument. Michael Phelps won a bunch of gold medals in sprint distance swimming races. He has never done a triathlon, never been reported do any bike races or train on the bike, never been reported to do any running races or train for running.

Armstrong, on the other hand, started his racing career as a professional triathlete and won the sprint national championships. He recently raced a 2.4 mile open water swim and posted an impressive time while staying with a pair of excellent swimmers. He's working with a well-respected running coach and has posted three respectable open mary times. Saying that Phelps has proven as much in the IM arena as Armstrong is demonstrably false and pretty damn absurd.

Speaking of those open mary times, you need to pick an argument and stick to it. Either a 2:46 was "pedestrian" (implying that, despite his aerobic engine, Armstrong can't do any better) or he didn't train enough and he's too lazy to get out the door and take it seriously (implying that he could have gone significantly faster, else why train harder). You can certainly argue one or the other, but you keep flopping back and forth between the two. So which is it? Can Armstrong run faster than 2:46 but he's not dedicated, or is he just too slow compared to the pro triathletes?

You stand as an idiot. Do you understand the difference between "dominate" and "it could be over?"

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"Go yell at an M&M"

And more fuel for the fire. James Bonney's twitter following the swim:
"@juanpelota great swim. It was a solid ice breaker for the IM distance. Next time opt for the light weight waffles post-race."

Kona? Not necessarily. Despite my comments arguing what his prospects may be there, I'm pretty skeptical that Armstrong is gearing up for Kona this year. As for one of the other IM races though, I don't buy that this is just an idle comment on Bonney's part

ETA: Cotter's twitter as well:
"Fast 2.4 mile swim with @jamesbonney and @juanpelota today. They both put me in the hurt. Juan will be FOP in any 70.3/IM swim."

  
Yeah, "it could be over" at Kona is not dominance. Yeah, any old pro can do that. I stand corrected!!!! Talk about an idiot.

Umm. How many IM's have Phelps and Armstrong done? Answer? Zero. What has Armstrong proved in the IM arena? Till you've done one, nothing. Zero. Fact is that I'm a more accomplished IM athlete than he is, and so is the guy who barely cracks 17 hours. Man, this is like talking to my 3 year old.

2:46 is pedestrian. I didn't say LA didn't get out the door, LA said he didn't get out the door. He says now he was only running 20-30 a week. I suspect he ran more, as do many runners, but simply isn't very good and is making excuses, but I'm going by what he has said since no one really knows but him. Can he run faster? Probably, if he run trains (which he hasn't done much of apparently, either because he can't or he won't). I don't know which, nor do I care. How much faster can he run if her trains? No idea. I doubt much, based on the fact that he already has the engine in place. Just speculation on my part, but until he becomes a serious triathlete, which he is not, it's just conjecture.

Wake me up when he actually does a triathlon.

I stand by my prediction. LA does not toe the line in Kona this year, and he never cracks the top 10 ever. You are free to put this up and ridicule me if he does. Rest assured I'm going to pull this out as soon as he announces he is not racing it this year. My guess is that we will hear something by June. T

This is good stuff. Don't stop now, keep it coming.

All it shows is your ignorance. He has done more than cycling over the past 20 years.

To say that he is in any way shape or form an average participant is plain ignorant (like you're a more accomplished triathlete).

I don't think anyone is saying he has a realistic chance of winning, just that his swim is very good, his biking speaks for itself, his run needs some improvement, but I don't think his run will suffer from a full out bike pace as much as some folks think it will.

Give up, man. You ARE talking to three year olds. The amount of love on this site for Armstrong is disturbing.

I hope he does it and wins!

Why the haters? Do you think the average lay person knows any "pro" triathletes... i just read that blog by Mac Brown and first thought was who the F is this guy, and why do I care? Second thought while reading, who the F is Jordan Rapp? Never heard of either of them. Love it or hate it LA is one of the most recognized faces in the World, and I think it can only do good things for the sport of triathlon.

Lance, if your reading this... qualify as an age grouper... do kona as an age grouper... beat, no, humiliate the pros... and retire... again.

As a side note, I come from a running background so cycling and swimming are always second and third in priorities for me. I like doing tris but would not call myself one of you. In college, I personally thought the people who called themselves "triathletes" were the biggest wimps... in that they always made excuses for their performance in workouts because they had to do a 40k bike or 4000m swim before running... blah blah blah. I would love to see a hard core cyclist like Lance go out there and dominate...

And with the whole "drug" thing... do they even test in ironman triathlon?

Time to start the popcorn...

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Seen on ST: NOTSOSWUYD: None of the secrets of success work unless you do.

Seriously? He won seven Tours. I think he (and his team) may know a thing or two about nutrition and racing.

Maybe you can give him a few pointers? You know, to help the kid out.

Oh yeah, he's done some serious run training in the off-season, I forgot. Geesh. He didn't even, according to him, run 30 a week when he had retired from cycling and he was supposedly training "seriously" for his first marathon. And I'm supposed to believe he did more when he was a cyclist? Yawn.....

I am a more accomplished IM triathlete (I said IM athlete Einstein). I've done one. No actually I've done a lot more than one. Wake me when he does one please. Yawn.

You don't think anyone his said he has a serious chance of winning? You can't be serious. Now I know you are a three year old.

I'll be here all night. Try the veal.

You and many others have said this, and let me be the first to point out that this pearl of wisdom is based on absolutely nothing.

Seriously? You think keeping food coming and being absorbed after riding 5 hours on a bike is the same as riding 5 hours on a bike and then running for 3 hours? If so, go join Lehner in the corner. By extension, you apparently think every pro at Kona who has blown up from nutritional issues somehow knows much less about fueling and keeping stuff processing than LA does. That's really funny actually. How many pros have fueling issues during the bike in a typical IM? A couple. How many struggle with it during the run?

Have you even done one????

Nope. Apparently I'm not man enough. Thanks for warning me though. Carry on; you're doing great!

How fast do you think Norman Stadler would run an open marathon in? I thought i say a youtube video of him running German in hi 2:30's?

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John

Yes. You have more balls than Lance too.
Means nothing.


I'm not going through the whole thread again but actually I don't think anyone says he has a serious chance of winning.

Can he go under 8.30? Maybe - he certainly has the single-sport performances to suggest this.
Huge difference between this and winning though. I'm pretty sure everyone here has acknowledged that.

Saying his performance could force pros to rethink their gameplans (as some have suggested) is not the same as saying he can win it.

I really don't know, but what matters is that he can run mid to low 2:50's in the Hawaii heat after 5-6 hours of going hard. I would guess that if most of these guys trained for an open marathon for a few months most could probably pull of mid 2:30's, maybe some in the low 2:30's. Not many, if any, under that. Point is that these guys only trail off by 20 or so minutes. LA? No data, and I suspect there never will be.

No such thing as a "lesser Ironman". 140.6 is 140.6.

So what do you think he is out there doing 2.4mile open water swims for? Are you suggesting he is just trying to stay fit? Or you saying he is just going to quit trying? based on his track record of being a quitter?

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John

Like I've said before, I'm sure he's testing the waters, but I doubt he will do an IM if he can't be competitive. He knows he can swim and ride, so it comes down to whether his run can improve enough. I've said repeatedly that it won't (or it would have already), so he will either just not enter, or he will get injured trying to improve. Of course I could be wrong, but I stand by my prediction. I will revive this thread either way come October, you can bet on it. If he does do Kona, it will be as an AG and not a pro. I'm not afraid to put it out for others to ridicule, but all I see here is a lot of distant manloving by fanboys.

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But the pro competition can vary dramatically which I'm sure you know is what he meant.(mainly because that is also what he said)

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I don't have anything to add to this riveting discussion, but just wanted to say I love your work. WTG!

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