There is no love between Trek and QST today, they should have agreed to have De La Cruz help Contador out and then give him the stage win, instead he sat on for 50k then then took the time bonus.

Cannondale just seems a shambles this year, more than most. Formolo and Craddock DNF. Joe D coming back from injury. Rolland seemingly regressing a bit. Woods kind of doing OK

The only thing they can take to the bank is Sep in a Classic.

That was Eric van Lancker in 1990. Couldn't find any video of it though. But he also won the Amstel Gold Race (in 1989).

Well, VDB did announce in an interview ahead of the race that he'd attack on La Redoute, though. Maybe not exactly where but it was telegraphed ahead of time, he did it, and smoked 'em. Dope or not, it was awesome.

Attention now shifts this week to Milan-San Remo - the longest of the classics at almost 300km and one of the trickiest races of the year to predict and handicap!

I always find it a fascinating race - typically not much happens before they reach the Cipressa with about 30k to go, but then from there it can be high-drama all the way to the finish line with the outcome in doubt right to the line.

Both the Cipressa and the Poggio the other climb that comes with just 6km are not that long, but with nearly 300km of racing in the legs, they can really take a toll on riders. There is then the tricky twisting and turning descent of the Poggio right into San Remo and the about 2km drag-race from there to the finish. What's interesting is due to unusual nature of the race - in the finale mixing it up you will usually have a mixture of contenders still in the game - pure sprinters, strong-men and all-rounders, and even some climber/GC types all going for it. That's why it's such a hard race to predict. Just because, say a Mark Cavendish a pure sprinter and former winner makes it to the finale, is no guarantee of a win if it does come down to real sprint at the end. Cav like the other pure sprinters will often have no real lead-out, and they have WAY more miles in their legs then they are used to - in other words is ability to really sprint they way he is used to is diminished significantly.

More recently, it's been more of a race for the strong-men-all-rounder types - and Fabian Cancellara's stellar record here of making it to the finale regularly and being on the podium a number of times and winning it out-right one year is a testament to that.

In that light - an on-form Peter Sagan, has to be a good pick for the win. He has the fitness to go 300K, can mix-it up and win from various scenarios, and has great bike handling skills to master the descent of the Poggio (or last year avoiding a crash in the final 1K). Sagan for the win!

Who do you like?

The big problem with this race is the finish line is 1k too far, if they moved it up it would be a much more dynamic race and Cancellara would probably have 4 wins. That last 1k is just enough to neutralize any late attacks and often the one who dares does not win in this race as Cancellara is all to aware.

Last year was incredibly slow towards the finish and i suspect that will not happen again, teams like Sky, UAE, and BMC need the race to be very hard. Additionally Sagan wants a hard finish so Bora also has a vested interest to drop the pure sprinters and hurt the more dynamic sprinters such as Gavaria, Kristoff, Demare, Degenkolb and company. I don't think Cav is seriously racing this spring, he has stated multiple times he is trying to take it easy and recover from last year. Cav has to be in peak form and weight to not get dropped.

Dan Loyd, commenting on Sagan, suggested that he has developed even more as a rider this year evidenced by his ability to hang with the GC riders yesterday while GVA/Kiwat/Boonen were all 1+ minute back. I think Sagan's ability to hang on steeper climbs and sprint alongside Gavaria makes him the most dangerous rider for MSR, but Sagan does not want Gavaria/Demare/Kiristoff on his wheel. With all this preamble here is what i think develops:

Sky has to go long, possibly Thomas goes on the Cipressa to set up Kiwat, similar to last year. Gilbert decides to make a move, drawing out a few other attackers, at this point its strung out going down the Cipressa. Up the poggio the pace is extremely hard, some attacks and Sagan gets on the coat tails, pushes the descent. Reduced bunch sprint of 10-12 riders, main field right behind.

Sagan
GVA
Valverde (why not)

MSR is about 2.5k too long (out of a possible 2.8k).

Sagan has to make up his damn mind. Either go all out at the middle of Poggio or wait for the sprint. No middle ground. He's good at freelancing, and can get a free tow for most of the flat section

Truth is, a 3.7% hill just isn't that selective to these guys. I'd love to see something different pan out, but i'm not holding my breath

Created a league on Velogames.com for the Spring Classics

League Name: Slowtwitch
League Code: 14164018

I think you're right that Bouhanni will be a factor. His win at Noekere was pretty solid despite the lack of competition. But I can't put him on the podium because he's a petulant twerp.

Podium:
Degenkolb
Gaviria
Sagan

WC
Bouhanni
Demare

For Gilbert, does he has the potential to win, absolutely, but his chances reside in the perfect set of circumstances unfolding. His talent level is quite high for a wildcard but i think it is justified. Kiwat would be another borderline wildcard, likely has not chance, but if he did win it would not be completely shocking either.

I think the only rider who *doesn't* require a particular set of circumstances is Sagan. He's the only one who can win from almost any situation, e.g. he can win like Cancellara (long range), Gilbert (medium long) or Cav (closer). Even being the most marked guy out there.

This is my longstanding beef with the use of the "Wildcard" status. It shouldn't be used to merely extend your podium list because you want to list more than 3 likely winners. Demare won MSR last year, and is on form this year. Puh-lease. I'll *maybe* grant Bouhanni since he typically does a disappearing act immediately after demonstrating great promise.