I'll go with my P-R pick right now: a p*ssed off Sagan decimates field in spectacular fashion. Degenkolb 2nd and SVM 3rd.

*Unless he's concussed or has other injury from crash, which doesn't appear to be the case.

our media reported him saying that he thinks he nipped a "pullover" which in Euro-speak means a sweater or hoodie. That then dragged his wheel into the barrier and bars into the banner. There's a picture of Sagan diagonal and a jacket draped over Naesen but whether that's what actually happened is not clear to me. He could just be imagining it or looking for excuses for a normal human lapse in concentration. They were booking it at that exact moment - maybe he was pushing so hard he had tunnel vision. Happens to me sometimes - at half his speed :)

Bummer.

I'm also curious about the specifics of Boonen's mechanical. Could be interesting given he decided to ride the new Roubaix with its funky front suspension.

There is a still that shows a hoodie right in front of Sagan draped over the rail, in the end just ride a foot away and you have no problems.

 "Kwiatkowski and Sagan might be the only ones without much dirt; i really hope that Alaphilippe has no dirt as well, as is Dan Martin "

Sagan is front loaded, in my opinion. In that I mean he was on the typical junior program way back when he was completely riding away from the field in Cali in '10. An incredible talent, but if we're trying to define "clean" we have to go waaaay back. For all these guys, really. Gilbert, Boonen, etc. Different times, different world. It's kind of like getting an "organic" food designation. :) A lot of the old supplements have a lasting effect.

I'm a fan anyway. It's great theatre and a big business. Lots of dough at stake, so souls are sold and rationalizations are made and I do think these guys are now 90% clean in competition. I root for the second tier guys I want to think are clean. Love seeing the new guys break through.

http://www.velonews.com/...ses-questions_434423
This vid shows the crash, I think Sagan hit the foot of the barricade, possibly after hooking a jacket.

---

res, non verba

Sagan and GVA will be out for blood but trek has been a non factor this year.

---

The entire event (IM) is like "death by 1000 cuts" and the best race is minimizing all those cuts and losing less blood than the other guy. - Dev

bring fabian back!

classics need him

He is no doubt more than a generational talent and should go down as one of the greatest--if he so chooses to.

But with regard to juniors, the unfortunate belief is that they're doping early in order to game the Passport. If numbers are elevated when they get on then it's tougher to see the discrepancy. Not saying that's the case with PS and MK, and certainly hope they're clean.

Speaking of Peto, he posted a vid on his Insta of clipping a sweatshirt hanging over barrier. Tough luck, as it looked like the race was unfolding right into his hands.

agreed. I was hoping for Phil Gil to hang on, but if that crash doesn't happen, they mow him down within 5K and the classics gets the heavyweight sprint we've been predicting; Sagan versus VanAvermat, the oh-boy in oh-den-nard!
ha


anyway, they did crash and Phil won and that was a ridiculous solo. so cheers to him.

Yes, he hooked the jacket:
https://twitter.com/DansLaMusette/status/848889768117239812

I do give him credit for falling well. Kept his grip on the bars to minimize risk of the ubiquitous clavicle/collarbone break, and stayed with his bike. Was a little scary how his head bounces off the ground.

I give him 8/10.

Speaking of Peto, he posted a vid on his Insta of clipping a sweatshirt hanging over barrier. Tough luck, as it looked like the race was unfolding right into his hands.

Indeed.

Tough break for Sagan. However, total class afterwards, taking full responsibility for his actions and what happened - http://www.cyclingnews.com/...he-tour-of-flanders/ Chapeau!

This should be a Must-Read for many top athletes - many, who tend to be excuse-machines!!

If you are going to ride that narrow dirt-strip just adjacent to the cobbles, you are going to be VERY close to the barricades in these races. You run a BIG risk of something like this happening.

---

---

Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Agreed. Sagan is a freak among freaks anyway.

I've posted before in defense really of the young Americans being more likely to be clean than some kid with not as many options. The guys I know, a couple of World Tour guys and some pro conti riders- they're not going that far with it. They know this is temporary, they work hard and have fun and don't want to walk around with DOPER tatooed on their forehead later on. They've generally got bigger fish to fry later on and the endorsement and advertising dough is really not there for them anyway. Not like it is for the euros.

Not judging them, btw. I really don't blame them at all.

I think I'm going with Boonen for PR. He was made for this race, has the team that will be inspired to ride for him, and has had great form. Maybe he gets lucky with his swan song. GvA is going to have to run into bad luck, real trouble to not win though. He's going that good. Probably will beat PS in a 3 up sprint with maybe Terpstra or Durbridge.

Sep very unlikely to ride this weekend... not able to ride at all today from the injuries including a broken finger.

Here is the link to Peter's Facebook video post:

https://www.facebook.com/...s/10155273969579467/

Clearly a jacket that he catches with his bars.. Everybody was a bit freaked out yesterday as the cause was a bit uncertain..so it's nice to at least be able to write this one off as a lesson learned and move forward knowing that it wasn't something else.

We've been working with Peter and the team this year on pressures and tire selection and more, so my pick has to be Peter. He's pretty banged up now, especially the shoulder, but I think he's got the hunger! I was also fortunate enough to work with Boonen for 4 years and found him to be a total class act.. I'm not sure if this is his year, but I'm putting him on my podium 'cause I so want to see him up there!!

I say Sagan, Van Avermaet, Boonen

Go Peter!

---

http://www.SILCA.cc
Check out my podcast, inside stories from more than 20 years of product and tech innovation from inside the Pro Peloton and Pro Triathlon worlds!
http://www.marginalgainspodcast.cc

Most likely Sagan, GvA, and Degenkolb on podium It's very hard to shed Degenkolb on flat roads, and his form appears to be good.

Kristoff got ridden out of the break, and i don't think he'll do well (not that he's done well at Roubaix). Boonen may get a swan song victory. That'd be nice

Here is the link to Peter's Facebook video post:

https://www.facebook.com/...s/10155273969579467/

Clearly a jacket that he catches with his bars.. Everybody was a bit freaked out yesterday as the cause was a bit uncertain..so it's nice to at least be able to write this one off as a lesson learned and move forward knowing that it wasn't something else.

Great pick-up Josh - thanks for sharing.

Clearly the clipping of the jacket pulls him slightly to the left, then the front wheel hits the foot of the barricade, he battles it momentarily and goes down. Sagan, is one of the absolute BEST bike handlers out there, so I'm never going to second guess the guy.

As for PR - the ultimate, would be a big 3-way, show-down between, Sagan, GVA and Boonen - in the swan-song race. Although, that did not go so well for Cancellara last year.

PR is a brutal race of attrition, where the front group from Arenberg on, gets winnowed down by strength, fitness, mechanicals, and luck! Anything can happen, and you sometimes get surprise winners, like a Matt Haymen, or a Johan Van Summeran, who with all due respect are domestiques, but bad luck has closed the door for others (including their designated team leaders), and opened the door for them!

---

---

Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

PR is a brutal race of attrition, where the front group from Arenberg on, gets winnowed down by strength, fitness, mechanicals, and luck! Anything can happen, and you sometimes get surprise winners, like a Matt Haymen, or a Johan Van Summeran, who with all due respect are domestiques, but bad luck has closed the door for others (including their designated team leaders), and opened the door for them!


I think it's great that domestiques can win PR! It's definitely one of things that sets this race apart. But note that Hayman and Van Summeren each had two previous top-10 finishes at PR (as did Terpstra). If you want to go for the real surprise winners, take a look at O'Grady, Knaven, or Guesdon (no previous top-10s), or Backstedt (1 previous top-10).

So that's seven unexpected winners in 20 years. Maybe we should expect the unexpected?

Wasn't Knaven on the old Quickstep (Domo?) team and sent up the road to soften up the competition. Since that team was so stacked nobody wanted to quite pull them up and Knaven's "break" stuck. That's what should have happened at that race where Stannard rode away from 3 Quickstep guys :)

That was the Hincapie breakaway that featured him and 9ish break. Domo had 4 in the break and simply played tactics.


I think if not for a flat Hincapie and Wilfred Peters would have stayed away because they had huge gap after crash stopped everyone at Auremburg (spelling) and then Hincapie flatted. Peters rode away and 3 domo guys simply sat on break. Once the group caught Peters, Knaven was sent up road. I think they thought he would get caught and allow Maussew (spelling) to win out of group.

Hincapie even finished 4th after Domo top 3, and I think he was strongest that day, but that was one of best team tactics played against single riders in break. They simply broke Hincapie and the other few strong riders.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

anyone else think GVA is too "dainty" to win Roubaix? I know that's harsh but he seems slight. same for Phil.

so putting my picks out early, I agree with the angry Sagan, the improving Degekolb, and I want the sentimental Boonen.

for wild cards, the ausies at Orica.

Luck has so much to do with it, and incredible toughness and time on the cobbles. I think van Av can win it. He's not too light. I wonder who is the lightest rider to win?
Would be great to see Phinney finish well. Along with Tyler Farrah who has ridden well in the past.
Maggie Backstredt was right around 200 lbs when he won. Swedish TT Champ. I love that a big man can win this.

No, I always thought GvA has enough strongman in him. He can do fine this weekend.

I'm going to roll the dice a bit:

1) Degenkolb
2) Kristoff
3) Stybar

Wildcards

1) Colbrelli
2) De Backer