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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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The people who could beat him in a group sprint include

Kristoff
Degenkolb
Demare
Matthews
Gaviria
Groenenwgen

I think Matthews is injured, and Degenkolb is off form. Kristoff is also abit off, leaving Gaviria and Groenenwegen. Not sure if the latter could handle the distance though
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [echappist] [ In reply to ]
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Gaviria is out with fractured hand. Might be a touch too much, too soon for Groenewegen.

Oss did more great work today. He's looking more and more like the missing link.
Last edited by: Carl Spackler: Mar 12, 18 13:13
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [echappist] [ In reply to ]
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echappist wrote:
The people who could beat him in a group sprint include

Possibly Caleb Ewan. I'm not *predicting* Ewan to beat him, particularly after an MSR-distance race, just pointing out that if he's coming off a friendly wheel in the final 100m, it's game on.
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [trail] [ In reply to ]
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Wonder how the lack of sprinter depth will change team strategy. Could see more quality guys going for break.
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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would be fun to see a redux of that infamous 2013 edition (minus the "intermission," of course). That was a helluva race, epicness on par with the most dreary of Paris-Roubaixs
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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Carl Spackler wrote:
Gaviria is out with fractured hand. Might be a touch too much, too soon for Groenewegen.

Oss did more great work today. He's looking more and more like the missing link.

Oss is such a Workhorse. What a great teammate to have.
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [echappist] [ In reply to ]
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I may be away so I am throwing in provisional picks now. no brave moves here.


Demare
Sagan
Kittel

Gilbert
Ewan
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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Sky will be interesting in MSR with no true sprint card to play like last year. Kiwat last year could simply say he has Viviani and follow Sagan. Now Sky has to take initiative, same for BMC. In many ways this plays into Sagan's hand. He wants a brutally hard run in to the line, even a small break and he likely does not have to force that to occur. Either way he is the clear favorite. I do find it funny that people do not consider him a true sprinter and then he is neck and neck against Kittel all week. Not to mention his 20 second sprint averaging 1300w last season ;)

Demare and Viviani are the two most dangerous sprinters who can easily get over the climbs; Ewan is more of a gamble, you never know what you will get out of him. Colbrelli can also sprint very well after a long hard day and he has zero issues with the climbs.

I still think it will be chaotic and it will come down to a reduced bunch sprint, 5-6 riders. Bora/Sky/BMC all clearly want to make it as hard as possible this year. Even quickstep has a card to play in that game.
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [dsmallwood] [ In reply to ]
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dsmallwood wrote:
I may be away so I am throwing in provisional picks now. no brave moves here.


Demare
Sagan
Kittel

Gilbert
Ewan
Provisional picks:

Sagan
Colbrelli
Vanmarcke

Viviani
Kwiatkowski
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]
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Really good points--harder the better for Sagan, because the Poggio isn't likely selective enough to get rid of him, while teams will not want to see Kittel after it. Viviani could be his biggest threat; he's looking good.
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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The brave break gets caught. Sagan, though encrouable, cannot out sprint DĂ©mare and Viviani or other pure sprinters who may or may not make it to the bunch, even if they get towed there by a team car. My gut pick is Demare, though not official yet.
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]
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Ron_Burgundy wrote:
Sky will be interesting in MSR with no true sprint card to play like last year. Kiwat last year could simply say he has Viviani and follow Sagan. Now Sky has to take initiative, same for BMC. In many ways this plays into Sagan's hand. He wants a brutally hard run in to the line, even a small break and he likely does not have to force that to occur. Either way he is the clear favorite. I do find it funny that people do not consider him a true sprinter and then he is neck and neck against Kittel all week. Not to mention his 20 second sprint averaging 1300w last season ;)

Demare and Viviani are the two most dangerous sprinters who can easily get over the climbs; Ewan is more of a gamble, you never know what you will get out of him. Colbrelli can also sprint very well after a long hard day and he has zero issues with the climbs.

I still think it will be chaotic and it will come down to a reduced bunch sprint, 5-6 riders. Bora/Sky/BMC all clearly want to make it as hard as possible this year. Even quickstep has a card to play in that game.

Quoted for those who were suggesting some of those others could out sprint him.
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [turdburgler] [ In reply to ]
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That was the hula dance sprint, I think the exact number was 1298 for 18 seconds.
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]
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Giddy up!


http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/peter-sagan-and-kwiatkowski-in-a-war-of-words-before-milan-san-remo/
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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Really good points--harder the better for Sagan, because the Poggio isn't likely selective enough to get rid of him, while teams will not want to see Kittel after it. Viviani could be his biggest threat; he's looking good.


MSR is always really hard to predict. It's monstrously long, and while it does often come down to a "sprint", the big sprinters if they make it into the finale, and over the Poggio and back down, most likely will have no support with them (no trains/lead-outs), and nearly 300km of riding in their legs when it is go-time, so their usual explosive snap, is not what it usually is after shorter races.

That's why a true all-rounder and opportunist like Sagan, who is often working alone in finales, who has a very good sprint himself, who has a great instinct, intuition and experience, and can out-sprint in this situation the energy sapped legs, of the Viviani's and Kittels, has to always be a favorite!

I love watching the last hour or so of MSR every year. The reality is nothing really happens until then.


Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [McNulty] [ In reply to ]
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I have a feeling Sagan has never really liked Kwiatkowski or his racing style. There seems to be mutual respect between GVA and Sagan, they both race all out until the line. At the same time what was Kwiatkowski supposed to do? Lead Sagan out in the sprint?
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]
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Ron_Burgundy wrote:
I have a feeling Sagan has never really liked Kwiatkowski or his racing style. There seems to be mutual respect between GVA and Sagan, they both race all out until the line. At the same time what was Kwiatkowski supposed to do? Lead Sagan out in the sprint?

more like begrudging acceptance. GvA, for the most part, is not as talented as Sagan. GvA usually seem to climb a bit better, but Sagan has a much better bunch kick. The sprinting is more of a toss up when they are in a small break though.

The whole kerfuffel w/ Kwiatkowski seems overblown though. One funny observation is that some people who chides GvA for relying too much on Sagan throw out bucketloads of praises for Kwiatek. In my opinion, both operate similarly when in a break with Sagan. Both mostly give equal contribution in a long break but bluffs Sagan when the break is formed close to the line. Kwiatek forced Sagan to do the lion share's work during the last 3km of the 2017 MSR, almost never pulling through. Similarly, GvA forced Sagan to do the lion share's work at the 2016 GP Montreal, and Sagan essentially pulled for the last 4-5 km, first chasing down a break and then leading out the sprint.
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [echappist] [ In reply to ]
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And Sagan has more recently called bluffs and sat up, letting a break roll away. If he'll do that when a monument on the line is a different story, not to mention he's got a very strong squad around him and won't likely need to. If he and Oss are in a selection of 10, one of them will have a very good shot of taking it.

Time to start thinking about rest of my picks.
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [echappist] [ In reply to ]
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Sagan, Viviani, Kristoff
Trentin, Colbrelli
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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Racing "styles" is always an interesting conversation.

Boonen was a favorite of mine but I saw him give away one Roubaix by attacking his group that had gotten away. No one in the group could have beaten him in a sprint. It was simply bad ass machismo which was cool on the one hand but made me groan at the time. They of course caught him and I forget who won. I used to watch him work in a break group and he'd always do more than or at least as much as the others. It's the code, the way you're supposed to ride. Sagan is the same way. Swashbuckling and what not.

Boonen ripped Degenkolb for sitting on him last Roubaix, said it was cowardly riding. Others would say smart. Degenkolb might say it was all he could do to hang there. It was T Boonen after all.

It drives me nuts to see all these guys looking at each other and not working and blowing races. I get it, it's such a fine point at that level, you can't burn matches but you gotta be in it to win it. Sagan used to do too much and he's now shown he will let a race go if he has to. That's a big development. And the other guys sure don't want to tow him in but they end up with no shot instead of some shot.

I think there are certain personality types out there.

The Tom Sawyer- He is charming as hell, and convinces you and others to paint the fence, that it will be fun. And then drops you. But you can't help but like him.

The Jackel- He is not to be trusted, period. And he will assassinate you and you'll never even know he did it. Denny Menchov. I don't think Menchov said 5 words his entire career. Those 5 words may have been, "Where is my blood bag?"

The Scorpion- He is just not right. He's in it to start shit. The frog as he's ferrying the scorpion across the pond: "Why'd you sting me? Now we both drown and die." "I'm a scorpion. It's what I do." (Shrug....) The scorpion doesn't win much and just effs things up for others. No one likes him. Bouhanni.

The Diva- Always whining about something and very high maintenance. Bouhanni

The Foxhole guy- He'll always be working for his mates, and they'll take full advantage of him because his mates are scorpions and jackels. He never wins but if he does, everyone is really happy for him. Nicest guy out there. Matt Hayman

The Alpha Dog- Everyone knows he's the man, he doesn't have to tell them, he wins a lot but also works for others and is respected. Boonen.

The Faux Alpha Dog- He think he's the man, but everyone knows he's not and if he ever works for others they hear about it for a calendar year. Voeckler

Guess this all makes it a great poker game.
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [McNulty] [ In reply to ]
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I always thought cancellara was a diva whenever he lost...used to always whine about something rather than just accept a loss.
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [McNulty] [ In reply to ]
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McNulty wrote:
Racing "styles" is always an interesting conversation.

Boonen was a favorite of mine but I saw him give away one Roubaix by attacking his group that had gotten away. No one in the group could have beaten him in a sprint. It was simply bad ass machismo which was cool on the one hand but made me groan at the time. They of course caught him and I forget who won. I used to watch him work in a break group and he'd always do more than or at least as much as the others. It's the code, the way you're supposed to ride. Sagan is the same way. Swashbuckling and what not.


umm, obviously Hayman?

Quote:


Boonen ripped Degenkolb for sitting on him last Roubaix, said it was cowardly riding. Others would say smart. Degenkolb might say it was all he could do to hang there. It was T Boonen after all.

It drives me nuts to see all these guys looking at each other and not working and blowing races. I get it, it's such a fine point at that level, you can't burn matches but you gotta be in it to win it. Sagan used to do too much and he's now shown he will let a race go if he has to. That's a big development. And the other guys sure don't want to tow him in but they end up with no shot instead of some shot.

I think there are certain personality types out there.

The Tom Sawyer- He is charming as hell, and convinces you and others to paint the fence, that it will be fun. And then drops you. But you can't help but like him.

The Jackel- He is not to be trusted, period. And he will assassinate you and you'll never even know he did it. Denny Menchov. I don't think Menchov said 5 words his entire career. Those 5 words may have been, "Where is my blood bag?"

The Scorpion- He is just not right. He's in it to start shit. The frog as he's ferrying the scorpion across the pond: "Why'd you sting me? Now we both drown and die." "I'm a scorpion. It's what I do." (Shrug....) The scorpion doesn't win much and just effs things up for others. No one ;likes him. Bouhanni.

The Diva- Always whining about something and very high maintenance. Bouhanni

The Foxhole guy- He'll always be working for his mates, and they'll take full advantage of him because his mates are scorpions and jackels. He never wins but if he does, everyone is really happy for him. Nicest guy out there. Matt Hayman

The Alpha Dog- Everyone knows he's the man, he doesn't have to tell them, he wins a lot but also works for others and is respected. Boonen.

The Faux Alpha Dog- He think he's the man, but everyone knows he's not and if he ever works for others they hear about it for a calendar year. Voeckler

Guess this all makes it a great poker game.

chapeau.

Yeah, Voeckler is definitely the type. Never works well when the camera isn't on him, but starts pulling hard (both in terms of physical exertion and facial muscle movement) when the limelight is on him...

As alluded to by @Carl Spackler, one helluva Foxhole guy is now on Bora. Another (in the form of Marcus Burghardt) is also on Bora.

As for Divas, Wiggo and Froome are the biggest onse of the past decade.

Bernard Hinault is the embodiment of a Jackal. Pulled some really underhanded shit. Vino is the most Jackal of riders in the past decade, and that honor has been passed to Valverde. Neither dude can be trusted. I'd argue that Stijn VDB is the most-Scorpion like (more than Bouhanni). A look at his actions during the 2015 Spring Classics tells you all you need to know re: his character

fulla wrote:
I always thought cancellara was a diva whenever he lost...used to always whine about something rather than just accept a loss.


exactly. Mind you FC whinged after having won the MSR, RvV, and PR, as only after he's won one of each did people refuse to work with him. Cancellara is also quite arrogant, as evidenced by his performance at Mendrisio Worlds. He decided to take it to climbers by attacking on the climb and the descent, and then whinges when he's forced to close gaps (well, if you are so dominant, you should close gaps), and then whinges some more when no one would pull through after the gap is closed. At the same time, the group that was just caught has now sailed up the road.

I like Sagan's attitude (and Sagan) a lot more. That would have been difficult to say five years ago, but he's matured a lot.
Last edited by: echappist: Mar 14, 18 15:15
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [echappist] [ In reply to ]
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yeap. Sagan has a much better attitude. He accepts if he wants to win, he needs to do whatever he can to do it, rather than moaning about how other people have worked together to beat him.
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [McNulty] [ In reply to ]
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When I snuck out for a ride between rain and hail today I contemplated whether to try and catch finish before leaving for a ride event, or attempt a complete social media blackout until getting home late afternoon to watch. This is a big decision with high risk/reward.
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Re: 2018 Spring Classics Thread [fulla] [ In reply to ]
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wash you mouth out! haha
I think fabian had a lot of power and sway on the peloton, thus his opinions were quite 'loud'.
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