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Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming?
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So slightly tongue in cheek but a volcanic winter from a Yosemite or Japanese super volcano would last year's. After st helens global temps were impacted due to particulate ash. Guessing if a big one goes could last year's and would be great for skiing......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/12/six-mile-lava-dome-could-trigger-volcanic-winter-kill-millions/


Of course I forgot the link
Last edited by: Andrewmc: Feb 12, 18 10:58
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Re: Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming? [Andrewmc] [ In reply to ]
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Then there is recent research on solar cycles that predict we're entering a prolonged period of cooling.

https://www.ras.org.uk/...ven-by-double-dynamo

It may eventually turn out that our carbon emissions over the last century actually had the beneficial effect of mitigating the coming solar cooling effect. [ducks. runs.]


"...Sometimes it's about getting the most speed out of the motor you have." -- Tom A.
Last edited by: MOP_Mike: Feb 12, 18 11:15
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Re: Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming? [Andrewmc] [ In reply to ]
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I lived through St Helens, not really excited to go through that again here in Colorado. My vote would be for the Japanese dome to go off.

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Re: Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming? [Andrewmc] [ In reply to ]
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Pretty sure you mean Yellowstone--but if there's a super volcano lurking in the Sierra under Yosemite than that's another great reason to not move to Calif

Steve
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Re: Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming? [MOP_Mike] [ In reply to ]
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MOP_Mike wrote:
Then there is recent research on solar cycles that predict we're entering a prolonged period of cooling.

https://www.ras.org.uk/...ven-by-double-dynamo

It may eventually turn out that our carbon emissions over the last century actually had the beneficial effect of mitigating the coming solar cooling effect. [ducks. runs.]

I haven't read the paper, but the article linked above says "They examined three solar cycles-worth of magnetic field activity, covering the period from 1976-2008.", "using a technique called ‘principal component analysis’".

Having got a lot of experience with PCA in a past life, I'll just say that using 3 cycles to predict the next few pegs my bullshit meter just about to the redline.
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Re: Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming? [Andrewmc] [ In reply to ]
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Andrewmc wrote:
So slightly tongue in cheek but a volcanic winter from a Yosemite or Japanese super volcano would last year's. After st helens global temps were impacted due to particulate ash. Guessing if a big one goes could last year's and would be great for skiing......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/12/six-mile-lava-dome-could-trigger-volcanic-winter-kill-millions/


Of course I forgot the link

A full on Yosemite super volcano eruption would pretty much wipe out all of North America, the US from ashfall, Canada from the resultant cold and ice and Mexico from the exodus from both the US and Canada. In the last Yosemite eruption the ashfall in the Chicago area was measured in yards. If more than one super volcano erupted within a few years of each other, it could be a mass extinction event like the Toba theory where the super volcano in Indonesia (Toba), reduced the total human population to less than 100,000. That theory is not universally accepted, but if the Earth's median temperature dropped by 10 degrees for more than a decade, the effect it would have on the planet would be well beyond anything short of the extinction of humanity.
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Re: Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming? [vecchia capra] [ In reply to ]
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where is this Yosemite volcano y'all keep talking about? Is it near Half Dome? Somewhere below El Cap? Over by Hetch Hetchy?

Steve
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Re: Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming? [Steve Hawley] [ In reply to ]
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Steve Hawley wrote:
where is this Yosemite volcano y'all keep talking about? Is it near Half Dome? Somewhere below El Cap? Over by Hetch Hetchy?


Just to help us all keep it straight, the volcano is where this guy lives:



Not where this guy lives:

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Re: Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming? [Steve Hawley] [ In reply to ]
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Steve Hawley wrote:
Pretty sure you mean Yellowstone--but if there's a super volcano lurking in the Sierra under Yosemite than that's another great reason to not move to Calif

Yeah, I believe they mean Yellowstone. There is no super volcano under Yosemite.

___________________________________________________
Taco cat spelled backwards is....taco cat.
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Re: Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming? [MOP_Mike] [ In reply to ]
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MOP_Mike wrote:
Then there is recent research on solar cycles that predict we're entering a prolonged period of cooling.


https://www.ras.org.uk/...ven-by-double-dynamo

It may eventually turn out that our carbon emissions over the last century actually had the beneficial effect of mitigating the coming solar cooling effect. [ducks. runs.]


https://en.wikipedia.org/...ience_fiction_novel)

----------------------------------
"i disagree with your analysis [or judgment], nevertheless you have the responsibility of moderating this board so i honor your authority to make the moderating decisions."
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Re: Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming? [vecchia capra] [ In reply to ]
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vecchia capra wrote:
Andrewmc wrote:
So slightly tongue in cheek but a volcanic winter from a Yosemite or Japanese super volcano would last year's. After st helens global temps were impacted due to particulate ash. Guessing if a big one goes could last year's and would be great for skiing......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/12/six-mile-lava-dome-could-trigger-volcanic-winter-kill-millions/


Of course I forgot the link

A full on Yosemite super volcano eruption would pretty much wipe out all of North America, the US from ashfall, Canada from the resultant cold and ice and Mexico from the exodus from both the US and Canada. In the last Yosemite eruption the ashfall in the Chicago area was measured in yards. If more than one super volcano erupted within a few years of each other, it could be a mass extinction event like the Toba theory where the super volcano in Indonesia (Toba), reduced the total human population to less than 100,000. That theory is not universally accepted, but if the Earth's median temperature dropped by 10 degrees for more than a decade, the effect it would have on the planet would be well beyond anything short of the extinction of humanity.

[Stannis]

Fewer.

[/Stannis]

We may all end up dead, but good grammar ought to live forever.
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Re: Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming? [Steve Hawley] [ In reply to ]
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I did. Error
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Re: Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming? [vecchia capra] [ In reply to ]
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vecchia capra wrote:
. If more than one super volcano erupted within a few years of each other, it could be a mass extinction event like the Toba theory where the super volcano in Indonesia (Toba), reduced the total human population to less than 100,000. That theory is not universally accepted, but if the Earth's median temperature dropped by 10 degrees for more than a decade, the effect it would have on the planet would be well beyond anything short of the extinction of humanity.


Yes, seems like the Toba theory has largely been discredited.

John Hawks wrote about in just the last couple of weeks.

http://johnhawks.net/
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Re: Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming? [Andrewmc] [ In reply to ]
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Andrewmc wrote:
So slightly tongue in cheek but a volcanic winter from a Yosemite or Japanese super volcano would last year's. After st helens global temps were impacted due to particulate ash. Guessing if a big one goes could last year's and would be great for skiing......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/12/six-mile-lava-dome-could-trigger-volcanic-winter-kill-millions/


Of course I forgot the link


I believe the eruption of a single volcano in Iceland in 2010 put out more carbon (CO) and sulfur dioxide (SO2, which may act as a kind of coolant) than the entire world had managed to save in the 5 years before that, in terms of carbon, so it's a possibility that volcanism could indeed create such a phenomenon.

As far as that solution to global warming, though, I think we're more likely to see at least a temporary 'fix' emanate from the upcoming predicted solar Grand Minimum, a period during which our Sun will become unusually cool, probably starting in the 2050s.

There may have been Grand Minimums in the past, and the famed Maunder Minimum saw temperatures from 1645 to 1715 particularly low in many parts of Europe. This is the period during which London's Thames River was noted to have frozen over. Funnily, it actually warmed up Alaska and Greenland.

A Grand Minimum could see the Sun become 7% cooler than its usual minimum, which is cool enough. Such a decline would have a strong effect on Earth's global temps.
Last edited by: big kahuna: Feb 13, 18 4:23
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Re: Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming? [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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big kahuna wrote:
Andrewmc wrote:
So slightly tongue in cheek but a volcanic winter from a Yosemite or Japanese super volcano would last year's. After st helens global temps were impacted due to particulate ash. Guessing if a big one goes could last year's and would be great for skiing......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/12/six-mile-lava-dome-could-trigger-volcanic-winter-kill-millions/


Of course I forgot the link


I believe the eruption of a single volcano in Iceland in 2010 put out more carbon (CO) and sulfur dioxide (SO2, which may act as a kind of coolant) than the entire world had managed to save in the 5 years before that, in terms of carbon, so it's a possibility that volcanism could indeed create such a phenomenon.

As far as that solution to global warming, though, I think we're more likely to see at least a temporary 'fix' emanate from the upcoming predicted solar Grand Minimum, a period during which our Sun will become unusually cool, probably starting in the 2050s.

There may have been Grand Minimums in the past, and the famed Maunder Minimum saw temperatures from 1645 to 1715 particularly low in many parts of Europe. This is the period during which London's Thames River was noted to have frozen over. Funnily, it actually warmed up Alaska and Greenland.

A Grand Minimum could see the Sun become 7% cooler than its usual minimum, which is cool enough. Such a decline would have a strong effect on Earth's global temps.



You think sun spots cause global cooling? I beleive we covered this during your absence on a looong thread about climate change.

It boils down to this, the maunder minimum caused the little ice age in the same way donald trump caused the new deal.




who's smarter than you're? i'm!
Last edited by: veganerd: Feb 13, 18 6:58
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Re: Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming? [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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big kahuna wrote:
I believe the eruption of a single volcano in Iceland in 2010 put out more carbon (CO) and sulfur dioxide (SO2, which may act as a kind of coolant) than the entire world had managed to save in the 5 years before that, in terms of carbon, so it's a possibility that volcanism could indeed create such a phenomenon.


I don't think that's correct. The volcano ejected between 150k-300k tons of CO2 each day. Humans produce about 24 billion tons annually, so even if the volcano was going full-bore for a year it would have produced only maybe 75 million tons, which isn't even 0.004% of what humans produced.

That said, you did say it produced more than humans saved in 5 years, so depending on how you measure it, you could say we didn't cut back CO2 emissions by 0.004% over those five years, and you'd be technically correct.

The sum CO2 of all volcanoes each year is about 200 million tons, which is still less than 1% of the 24 billion tons humans contribute.

ETA: That should be 0.4%, not 0.004%
Last edited by: swimwithstones: Feb 13, 18 10:46
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Re: Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming? [swimwithstones] [ In reply to ]
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swimwithstones wrote:
big kahuna wrote:
I believe the eruption of a single volcano in Iceland in 2010 put out more carbon (CO) and sulfur dioxide (SO2, which may act as a kind of coolant) than the entire world had managed to save in the 5 years before that, in terms of carbon, so it's a possibility that volcanism could indeed create such a phenomenon.

I don't think that's correct. The volcano ejected between 150k-300k tons of CO2 each day. Humans produce about 24 billion tons annually, so even if the volcano was going full-bore for a year it would have produced only maybe 75 million tons, which isn't even 0.004% of what humans produced.

That said, you did say it produced more than humans saved in 5 years, so depending on how you measure it, you could say we didn't cut back CO2 emissions by 0.004% over those five years, and you'd be technically correct.

The sum CO2 of all volcanoes each year is about 200 million tons, which is still less than 1% of the 24 billion tons humans contribute.

The global warming is still strong in all of you, I see. ;-)

I really don't care either way about, and neither do most folks, at least in the US. It's just not that big a deal on most people's radar screens, for better or worse.
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Re: Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming? [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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[q

I really don't care either way about, and neither do most folks, at least in the US. It's just not that big a deal on most people's radar screens, for better or worse.[/quote]



I'm still wondering why people want it cold all the the time, I would rather it be warm than 40F year round.
Last edited by: triathlete37: Feb 13, 18 7:52
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Re: Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming? [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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big kahuna wrote:
The global warming is still strong in all of you, I see. ;-)

I really don't care either way about, and neither do most folks, at least in the US. It's just not that big a deal on most people's radar screens, for better or worse.

I don't have an opinion on global warming one way or the other. Why would I? I haven't spent my career becoming an expert on climate issues. That why I listen to the people who have. When the vast majority of the world's experts say one thing, it's foolish to discount them.

I'd agree most people in the US don't care that much.
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Re: Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming? [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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big kahuna wrote:
swimwithstones wrote:
big kahuna wrote:
I believe the eruption of a single volcano in Iceland in 2010 put out more carbon (CO) and sulfur dioxide (SO2, which may act as a kind of coolant) than the entire world had managed to save in the 5 years before that, in terms of carbon, so it's a possibility that volcanism could indeed create such a phenomenon.

I don't think that's correct. The volcano ejected between 150k-300k tons of CO2 each day. Humans produce about 24 billion tons annually, so even if the volcano was going full-bore for a year it would have produced only maybe 75 million tons, which isn't even 0.004% of what humans produced.

That said, you did say it produced more than humans saved in 5 years, so depending on how you measure it, you could say we didn't cut back CO2 emissions by 0.004% over those five years, and you'd be technically correct.

The sum CO2 of all volcanoes each year is about 200 million tons, which is still less than 1% of the 24 billion tons humans contribute.

The global warming is still strong in all of you, I see. ;-)

I really don't care either way about, and neither do most folks, at least in the US. It's just not that big a deal on most people's radar screens, for better or worse.

If you don’t really care, why deny, obfuscate and lie?

===============
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Re: Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming? [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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big kahuna wrote:
swimwithstones wrote:
big kahuna wrote:
I believe the eruption of a single volcano in Iceland in 2010 put out more carbon (CO) and sulfur dioxide (SO2, which may act as a kind of coolant) than the entire world had managed to save in the 5 years before that, in terms of carbon, so it's a possibility that volcanism could indeed create such a phenomenon.


I don't think that's correct. The volcano ejected between 150k-300k tons of CO2 each day. Humans produce about 24 billion tons annually, so even if the volcano was going full-bore for a year it would have produced only maybe 75 million tons, which isn't even 0.004% of what humans produced.

That said, you did say it produced more than humans saved in 5 years, so depending on how you measure it, you could say we didn't cut back CO2 emissions by 0.004% over those five years, and you'd be technically correct.

The sum CO2 of all volcanoes each year is about 200 million tons, which is still less than 1% of the 24 billion tons humans contribute.


The global warming is still strong in all of you, I see. ;-)

I really don't care either way about, and neither do most folks, at least in the US. It's just not that big a deal on most people's radar screens, for better or worse.

The spewing bullshit is still strong with you, we see. [no gratuitous smiley]

If you don't care about it, why did you go out of your way to post demonstrably false nonsense?
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Re: Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming? [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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big kahuna wrote:
As far as that solution to global warming, though, I think we're more likely to see at least a temporary 'fix' emanate from the upcoming predicted solar Grand Minimum, a period during which our Sun will become unusually cool, probably starting in the 2050s.

There may have been Grand Minimums in the past, and the famed Maunder Minimum saw temperatures from 1645 to 1715 particularly low in many parts of Europe. This is the period during which London's Thames River was noted to have frozen over. Funnily, it actually warmed up Alaska and Greenland.

A Grand Minimum could see the Sun become 7% cooler than its usual minimum, which is cool enough. Such a decline would have a strong effect on Earth's global temps.

Would like to point out a couple of things here:
The scientific paper that was cited by the story you linked to doesn't say anything remotely close to "could see the Sun become 7% cooler than its usual minimum".

What the paper says is that, based on a study of 33 Sun-like stars, and a linear regression "we estimate a range in UV flux of 9.3% over solar cycle 22 and a reduction of 6.9% below solar cycle minimum under a grand minimum."

So what would happen if the sun's UV output dropped by 7%? What does that do to total solar irradiance? The answer is "not much" - the variation in UV at the top of the Earth's atmosphere (TOA) corresponding to a drop of 7% would be about 2 Watts per square meter. Compare this to the total TOA insolation, which is around 1360 W/m2. It's well-known that the total energy output from the sun varies only a few tenths of a percent over the solar cycle

That's not to say that the UV isn't important. UV strongly affects the structure of the upper atmosphere by creating the ozone layer which itself absorbs UV and creates heat, affecting the thermal structure and winds in the upper atmosphere. And that's an active area of research.
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Re: Volcanic winter? Solution to global warming? [eb] [ In reply to ]
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It's a material fact that when the click bait article writing career dried up he came back to slowtwitch.

Sorting the wheat from the chaff in his posts is virtually impossible.
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