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Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here.
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I'm with The Donald on this. You ignore a threat too long and eventually it's going to bite you in the ass:

"Trump also blamed his predecessors for discord in the Korean peninsula, saying that the current rhetoric is an extension of past failures and he has no choice but to respond to the rogue nation.
"We want to talk about a country that has misbehaved for many, many years, decades actually, through numerous administrations and they didn't want to take on the issue," he said. "I have no choice to take it on -- and I am taking it on -- and we will either be very, very successfully quickly or we are going to be very, very successful in a different way, quickly."


http://www.cnn.com/...rt-threat/index.html

And while I'm here I want to thank Barry for giving Iran a nuclear capability they should never have. If I was Israel I would release hell on Iran while I still could and deal with the consequences later. Because we all know that Iran is going to nuke Israel just as soon as they can, right? Allah Akbar.

"The political lesson of Watergate is this: Never again must America allow an arrogant, elite guard of political adolescents to by-pass the regular party organization and dictate the terms of a national election." Gerald R. Ford

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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [jkca1] [ In reply to ]
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He's not wrong, but it's kinda stupid to whine about that now. He (should have, and any normal candidate would have) knew the deal going in.

That doesn't mean he has a freaking clue what to do now, either. One of the glaring failures of his presidency is the humiliating exposure of his inability to negotiate successfully.








"People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world."
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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [jkca1] [ In reply to ]
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Typical Trump. Makes an ass out of himself on the international stage with his empty threats and then blames Obama for it. Its done before and will be done again.
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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [jkca1] [ In reply to ]
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So what do you think past administrations should have done differently, and what do you think Trump's options are now?
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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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Past administrations shouldn't have cooperated with blackmail, obviously. They should have told NK to pound sand.

Current administration should do nothing. Tell NK to pound sand.

Done and done.








"People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world."
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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [vitus979] [ In reply to ]
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vitus979 wrote:


Current administration should do nothing. Tell NK to pound sand.

Done and done.


So you're a fan of the Obama Administration position. :) I think the last White House concession to NK was Bush taking NK off the terror watch list in October, 2008. Obama pretty much ignored NK except throwing down some sanctions.
Last edited by: trail: Aug 11, 17 15:27
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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [trail] [ In reply to ]
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trail wrote:
vitus979 wrote:


Current administration should do nothing. Tell NK to pound sand.

Done and done.


So you're a fan of the Obama Administration position. :) I think the last White House concession to NK was Bush taking NK off the terror watch list in October, 2008. Obama pretty much ignored NK except throwing down some sanctions.

Be careful. That's a lot of words. Everyone knows foreign policy has to be simple enough for 140 characters.

Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)
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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [trail] [ In reply to ]
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 Except for that time when he tried to buy their cooperation with a quarter million tons of food, I guess.








"People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world."
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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [jkca1] [ In reply to ]
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jkca1 wrote:
"We want to talk about a country that has misbehaved for many, many years, decades actually, through numerous administrations and they didn't want to take on the issue," he said. "I have no choice to take it on -- and I am taking it on -- and we will either be very, very successfully quickly or we are going to be very, very successful in a different way, quickly."

What the bloody fuck is that supposed to mean? No doubt his sure-fire NK plan is on the shelf right next to his plan to defeat ISIS. Ye gods what a moron.
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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [vitus979] [ In reply to ]
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vitus979 wrote:
Except for that time when he tried to buy their cooperation with a quarter million tons of food, I guess.

So, I'm just trying to frame what you think we should have done over the past decade or two. Basically, let them build their nuclear capability, maybe enact sanctions, but not offer any carrot, just stick. Is that a good general summary?

Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)
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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [slowguy] [ In reply to ]
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Yup.

Best case scenario: Their nuclear program wouldn't be as advanced as it is today.

Worst case scenario: Their nuclear program would be the same as it actually is today.

And it still presents no threat to us.

Here's a tip: North Korea only has as much control over us as we give them.








"People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world."
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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [vitus979] [ In reply to ]
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vitus979 wrote:
Except for that time when he tried to buy their cooperation with a quarter million tons of food, I guess.

Except it didn't happen. But you have to admit that Obama because by far the closest of the last 4-5 Presidents.

But I think you thought that you could end ICBM development for a little food, you have to take that deal. If you believed it would be honored. But the Obama Administration clearly didn't think it would be honored, so didn't take the deal.
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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [trail] [ In reply to ]
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But I think you thought that you could end ICBM development for a little food, you have to take that deal.

If.

But I'm not a complete rube, so I wouldn't be anywhere near naive enough to think that NK was going to change its ways and abandon its nuclear program in exchange for some food.

But yeah, the deal didn't go through, because NK violated it almost immediately. Shocking!

Are you done defending Obama's honor now?









"People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world."
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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [vitus979] [ In reply to ]
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Got it. I think that's a kind of unrealistic foreign policy plan though. If we want another sovereign nation to not do something they have every right to do, and that they think is in their interest, we can either threaten and beat them into it, or we can offer them something in return for not doing it, or a mix of the two. Seems to me that most of the world acknowledges that foreign policy and diplomacy typically involves both stick and carrot. It's an unfortunate by product of our superpower status, in my mind, that so many Americans seem to think it's perfectly fine, and that we have every right to expect success, by just using stick all the time. Then they don't understand why many parts of the world view as us bullies instead of virtuous bringers of freedom.

(Not saying that you, Vitus, see it that way, just a general observation)

Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)
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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [slowguy] [ In reply to ]
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If we want another sovereign nation to not do something they have every right to do, and that they think is in their interest, we can either threaten and beat them into it, or we can offer them something in return for not doing it, or a mix of the two.

Or we can recognize that ultimately, we can't control what they do, and given that what they do poses no real threat to us one way or the other, let go. We don't need to control every sovereign country that wants to do something we don't want them to do. The insistence on exercising that control is their primary source of influence.

There is a time to negotiate with the carrot, there's a time to negotiate with the stick, and there's a time to recognize that there's no deal to be made, and no compelling reason to chase the deal like an idiot.









"People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world."
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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [vitus979] [ In reply to ]
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vitus979 wrote:
If we want another sovereign nation to not do something they have every right to do, and that they think is in their interest, we can either threaten and beat them into it, or we can offer them something in return for not doing it, or a mix of the two.

Or we can recognize that ultimately, we can't control what they do, and given that what they do poses no real threat to us one way or the other, let go. We don't need to control every sovereign country that wants to do something we don't want them to do. The insistence on exercising that control is their primary source of influence.

There is a time to negotiate with the carrot, there's a time to negotiate with the stick, and there's a time to recognize that there's no deal to be made, and no compelling reason to chase the deal like an idiot.

Yeah, I agree. I'd prefer that we tried a lot less to force or cajole everyone into doing what we want.

Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)
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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [vitus979] [ In reply to ]
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vitus979 wrote:


Are you done defending Obama's honor now?

As soon as you admit he's your soul brother!
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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [vitus979] [ In reply to ]
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vitus979 wrote:
given that what they do poses no real threat to us one way or the other, let go.

I don't totally disagree with you, but you're overplaying that hand a bit. Yes, NK poses a real threat. We have around 30,000 soldiers any many thousands of other Americans in South Korea. Guam. Japan. They have nuclear weapons. A nuclear ICBM would net them hundreds of millions (billions?) on the black market. We have enormous economic interests in the area, and a vested interested in preventing China from taking de facto ownership of those waters.

It doesn't take a deep investigation of history to find examples of when the let's-ignore-them-because-they're-not-a-direct-threat-and-really-someone-else's-problem theory backfired badly on the U.S.

So while I might end up with the same decision, I wouldn't take it so breezily, as if it's the obvious decision. Hand-waving away little things like nuclear ICBMS. Might keep me up at night, on occasion.

As nuclear ICBM capability becomes a commodity amongst unstable governments, the odds of it ending very poorly for the U.S. or her allies increases dramatically. A President should play the long game, not just the short game. And isolationism is generally playing the short game.
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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [trail] [ In reply to ]
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From another mother. No doubt.








"People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world."
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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [trail] [ In reply to ]
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trail wrote:
They have nuclear weapons. A nuclear ICBM would net them hundreds of millions (billions?) on the black market.

A) Who's going to buy it
B) Assuming someone could scrape together that cash and not get a box of pinball machine parts they aren't going to launch it at us
C) The warhead, yes I realize that is an issue, but again who's going to buy it?
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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [windywave] [ In reply to ]
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windywave wrote:
trail wrote:
They have nuclear weapons. A nuclear ICBM would net them hundreds of millions (billions?) on the black market.


A) Who's going to buy it
B) Assuming someone could scrape together that cash and not get a box of pinball machine parts they aren't going to launch it at us
C) The warhead, yes I realize that is an issue, but again who's going to buy it?


Friends of North Korea.

And I'm not even talking about physically sending actual stuff. But just sharing design and manufacturing data.
Last edited by: trail: Aug 11, 17 19:45
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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [trail] [ In reply to ]
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"As nuclear ICBM capability becomes a commodity amongst unstable governments, the odds of it ending very poorly for the U.S. or her allies increases dramatically. "

Exactly. Squashing it now will save future lives.

"The political lesson of Watergate is this: Never again must America allow an arrogant, elite guard of political adolescents to by-pass the regular party organization and dictate the terms of a national election." Gerald R. Ford

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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [trail] [ In reply to ]
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trail wrote:
windywave wrote:
trail wrote:
They have nuclear weapons. A nuclear ICBM would net them hundreds of millions (billions?) on the black market.


A) Who's going to buy it
B) Assuming someone could scrape together that cash and not get a box of pinball machine parts they aren't going to launch it at us
C) The warhead, yes I realize that is an issue, but again who's going to buy it?


Friends of North Korea.

And I'm not even talking about physically sending actual stuff. But just sharing design and manufacturing data.

You still need to build and test it to make sure it's not pinball parts.
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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [trail] [ In reply to ]
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Again, just because we decided to station troops on the other side of the planet on North Korea's border does not make them a threat to our country. It's like looking at a guy wave a knife around from the safety of your car, then getting out of your car and walking up to the guy, and convincing yourself that he's a threat to you because now he can stab you.

North Korea is simply not a threat to the United States, anymore that Iraq was a threat to the United States. They are poor, isolated, and contained, while we actually are a hyper-power, militarily. The only scenario in which we face danger from them is one in which they're just completely mad and suicidal, and I'm not hearing anyone say that's the case.

That doesn't mean I'm thrilled with the idea that they have nuclear weapons. I'm not. Just like I'm not thrilled with the idea of Russia having nukes, or with the idea nuclear weapons in Pakistan. But just because I don't like it doesn't mean I can do anything about it, and it doesn't mean I really have to do anything about it, except get used to the reality that we live in an uncertain world. Deal with it. I don't know why we seem to think that we're entitled to live in a world of guaranteed safety, and that we have the ability to make it so. We aren't, and we don't.

If you don't favor isolating North Korea, what's your alternative for the "long game"? I'm open to hearing ideas on how to approach North Korea in general, although I think it still ultimately boils down to the same basic reality- we cannot control other countries. In the meantime, we have no other serious option to play- the stick involves massive casualties that aren't justified at all by the problem at hand, and the carrot has proven worthless to counterproductive. We can go to war, we can try to buy them off again, or we can do what Trump loves best, and blow hot air.








"People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world."
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Re: Trump - Our Past "Leadership" on NK is what go us here. [windywave] [ In reply to ]
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windywave wrote:

You still need to build and test it to make sure it's not pinball parts.

Sure. But let's say Iran - which is clearly motivated to have its own dedicated nuclear weapon capability - is now 8 years away (making that up, don't know the real number). NK sends them everything they've learned, maybe it becomes 2 years. Allows Iran to pass the inspections on the current sanctions while still making progress, using North Korean facilities for R&D.

That's no good.
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