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El Niño was suppose to be wet...
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...and La Niña is supposed to be dry.

Last winter we had "the mother of all El Niño's" and it was predicted that we'd be in for a soaking wet winter. Didn't happen. It was one of the driest on record. It was opined by many that this was the "new normal" because of AGW. We were told that we'd be in a permanent state of drought because of climate change.

This winter we had a La Niña and it was predicted to be another dry year.

Well, we've surpassed our record year (82/83 (an El Niño year)) in rain fall.

It's raining today.

People like myself who just look at rainfall totals by year (and compare it to El Niños) know that there's no corrolation between rainfall totals and El Niño.

I also predicted a high rainfall total for this year just based on historical patterns.

I turned out to be correct. I guess I'm just lucky, over and over again. Another lucky guess.

AB
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [Duffy] [ In reply to ]
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Duffy is a lucky duck

Life is full of froth and trouble, two things stand in stone
Kindness in another's troubles, courage in one's own
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [len] [ In reply to ]
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len wrote:
Duffy is a lucky duck

Or, I'm just basing my predictions on actual data from the past.

AB
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [Duffy] [ In reply to ]
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are you trying to justify being a climate change denier? do you know that there is just about nothing that proves ignorance more than climate change denial?

i wouldn't mind climate change deniers, and those who believe that the earth was created 6000 years ago, if they were consistent. but you and i know damned good and well that if 97 out of 100 researchers agreed that this particular drug is the most efficacious for a medical problem befalling mrs. duffy, you would react the same way that i would if a medical problem befell mrs. slowman.

i would be in favor of a law mandating that anyone who disagrees with a 97 percent scientific consensus be prohibited from enjoying the fruits of any other scientific certainty. that would wise you guys up quickly.


Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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are you trying to justify being a climate change denier?

I don't deny that the climate changes.

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i wouldn't mind climate change deniers, and those who believe that the earth was created 6000 years ago

I don't believe the earth was created 6000 years ago either.

I'm an atheist married to a woman with a graduate degree in paleobotany. I love science. Science is based, in part, on observation.

This thread is a statement of my observations. Is there anything I wrote in the op that is factually incorrect?

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97 out of 100 researchers agreed that this particular drug is the most efficacious for a medical problem befalling mrs. duffy, you would react the same way that i would if a medical problem befell mrs. slowman.

Are you still of the belief that "97% of scientists, blah blah blah, AGW"?

That's been debunked for years.

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i would be in favor of a law mandating that anyone who disagrees with a 97 percent scientific consensus

Oh, looks like you do still believe that.

So I ask again, what is in my op that is factually incorrect?

AB
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [Duffy] [ In reply to ]
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"This thread is a statement of my observations. Is there anything I wrote in the op that is factually incorrect?"

no more factually incorrect than my saying that seat belts and motorcycle helmets are supposed be safer but look at what happened in these cases, and that tobacco is supposed to shorten life but look at this guy. the premise behind your post is that the science is unreliable. fine. just, then don't rely on science. for anything.

"Are you still of the belief that "97% of scientists, blah blah blah, AGW"? That's been debunked for years."

aha! you are a climate change denier! and no, that hasn't been debunked for years.

if you're a climate change denier, then you're a science denier... until you need some science. that's the most fraudulent kind of cynicism.


Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
are you trying to justify being a climate change denier? do you know that there is just about nothing that proves ignorance more than climate change denial?

i wouldn't mind climate change deniers, and those who believe that the earth was created 6000 years ago, if they were consistent. but you and i know damned good and well that if 97 out of 100 researchers agreed that this particular drug is the most efficacious for a medical problem befalling mrs. duffy, you would react the same way that i would if a medical problem befell mrs. slowman.

i would be in favor of a law mandating that anyone who disagrees with a 97 percent scientific consensus be prohibited from enjoying the fruits of any other scientific certainty. that would wise you guys up quickly.

Why?

************************

#WeAreTheForge

"Look, will you guys at leats accept that you are a bunch of dumb asses and just trust me on this one? Please?" BarryP 7/30/2012
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [Duffy] [ In reply to ]
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Whenever someone says El Nino/La Nina I think back to my geology teacher from high school, he always laughed at idea. Never believed it, I forget exactly why, I think it was just something The Weather Channel could run with and market. He did a lot of geological research work on the side, so I take some truth to his argument.
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Again, I don't deny that the climate changes. I never have.

Do you deny that it was record rainfall year? Do you deny that it was predicted to be a dry year?

Is there an ideal global climate that you have in mind? What year if earth's existence had the ideal climate?

AB
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [AndysStrongAle] [ In reply to ]
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AndysStrongAle wrote:
Whenever someone says El Nino/La Nina I think back to my geology teacher from high school, he always laughed at idea. Never believed it, I forget exactly why, I think it was just something The Weather Channel could run with and market. He did a lot of geological research work on the side, so I take some truth to his argument.

Yes, I've worked with quite a few geologists, and so did mrs Duffy when she was in grad school.

A lot of them told me the planet is in a cooling trend. They're just using a different time scale.

AB
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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97 percent scientific consensus

Who are the 97% and what do they agree on ?
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [Duffy] [ In reply to ]
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"Do you deny that it was record rainfall year?"

no. well, yes, depending on where you are. where i am, this year wasn't close to the winter of 2004/2005, which also was not an el nino year. what really matters in the sierras, and in socal, is not the equatorial ocean temps, rather the coursing of the jet stream. if the jet stream dips, as it did in 04/05 (for whatever reason it chooses to course south) then we get the storms that the pac northwest was supposed to get. i'm in a desert, in socal, and i got exactly twice the rainfall as did seattle that winter.

nevertheless i look at wunderground every day and danged if they don't get it right a great majority of the time.


Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [Leddy] [ In reply to ]
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Leddy wrote:
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97 percent scientific consensus

Who are the 97% and what do they agree on ?

It's 97% of people this one guy decided to ask.

AB
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Yeah, Wunderground does a good job.

There is evidence that when storms come during El Niño they are wetter storms but there's no correlation between the amount and location of actual storms.

In other words, if this year was an El Niño it would have been even wetter. Supposedly.

AB
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [Duffy] [ In reply to ]
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It's 97% of people this one guy decided to ask.

I don't think he even asked them. I thought it was a study of studies. So lets say you are a scientist and since you mentioned here that you don't deny climate change then you are part of the 97 %. Regardless of what you actually think the effects are.
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [Leddy] [ In reply to ]
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"Who are the 97% and what do they agree on?"

stop it! look, here's what happens on the forum, just taking me as an example. i'll write something, about lifting this regulation or that, or getting rid of the estate tax, or reforming corporate taxes, or something in sympathy with banning 3rd trimester abortions, or saying that i don't believe in free college, or that i think every adult citizen should pay income tax, and some wiseacre will comment that, "i'm learning," or that, "there's hope for me." i've always been about 50/50 lefty/righty in the positions i hold.

but i overwhelmingly caucus with the democrats because of precisely this kind of thing. i can't possibly caucus with the republicans because they are intellectually dishonest! the christers are gun lovers not because christ loves guns, but because republicans love guns. the white supremacists are climate change deniers because the white supremacists vote republican and so do the climate change deniers, so it's all for one and one for all.

i think it was slowguy who wrote something a few days ago about this place becoming moribund because everyone runs to his side. what we don't have here are elastic minds. i'll know that someone here has an elastic mind when at least a third of what he believes is at odds with what his chosen party believes.


Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [Duffy] [ In reply to ]
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Duffy wrote:
...and La Niña is supposed to be dry.

Last winter we had "the mother of all El Niño's" and it was predicted that we'd be in for a soaking wet winter. Didn't happen. It was one of the driest on record. It was opined by many that this was the "new normal" because of AGW. We were told that we'd be in a permanent state of drought because of climate change.

This winter we had a La Niña and it was predicted to be another dry year.

Well, we've surpassed our record year (82/83 (an El Niño year)) in rain fall.

It's raining today.

People like myself who just look at rainfall totals by year (and compare it to El Niños) know that there's no corrolation between rainfall totals and El Niño.

I also predicted a high rainfall total for this year just based on historical patterns.

I turned out to be correct. I guess I'm just lucky, over and over again. Another lucky guess.

Give it up! The science is settled!!!
Now give your money to the goberment so they can fix it, before it is to late!!!
Bonus- You will also earn a good place in heaven for helping save the world!!!
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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So now it's wrong to question a blanket statement like 97% of scientist believe in climate change ?

Does that automatically make me a white supremacists or republican ?

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stop it!

I think you are right here. I am sounding like Duffy.

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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [Leddy] [ In reply to ]
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Yes it appears from an internet search that it is based on one guy taking about 100 papers about climate change and categorizing them as agree disagree that man made global warming is responsible for at least 50 percent of the warming we are seeing. Having said that it appears that if the papers stated that any warming was man made he put them in the 50 percent or above category. These statements get made and then have a life of their own for years. Early on in the debate about homosexuality the claim was made that 10 percent of the population was gay. Except it was not true but repeated enough it became a key argument in the debate.

Leddy wrote:
Quote:
It's 97% of people this one guy decided to ask.


I don't think he even asked them. I thought it was a study of studies. So lets say you are a scientist and since you mentioned here that you don't deny climate change then you are part of the 97 %. Regardless of what you actually think the effects are.

Life is full of froth and trouble, two things stand in stone
Kindness in another's troubles, courage in one's own
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
i'll know that someone here has an elastic mind when at least a third of what he believes is at odds with what his chosen party believes.

my mind is quite elastic. It bounces all over the place. pick any debatable topic and I most likely disagree with myself on it.
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
"Do you deny that it was record rainfall year?"

no. well, yes, depending on where you are. where i am, this year wasn't close to the winter of 2004/2005, which also was not an el nino year. what really matters in the sierras, and in socal, is not the equatorial ocean temps, rather the coursing of the jet stream. if the jet stream dips, as it did in 04/05 (for whatever reason it chooses to course south) then we get the storms that the pac northwest was supposed to get. i'm in a desert, in socal, and i got exactly twice the rainfall as did seattle that winter.

nevertheless i look at wunderground every day and danged if they don't get it right a great majority of the time.

Uh, record storms and rainfall this year in the PNW. 139 days of measured precipitation since 10/1/2015. Record amount of snow and rainfall. Hell, it snowed last night in the local ski mountains.
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [len] [ In reply to ]
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There are more than one report creating the 97%.

Here yo have an article discussing the issue.
https://www.skepticalscience.com/...sus-intermediate.htm

Another way is to look at peer reviewed articles in scientific journals
https://skepticalscience.com/...cook-et-al-2013.html





Member of Valhalla Racing Team
XC-skiing coach at Momentum Northwest
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
"Who are the 97% and what do they agree on?"

stop it! look, here's what happens on the forum, just taking me as an example. i'll write something, about lifting this regulation or that, or getting rid of the estate tax, or reforming corporate taxes, or something in sympathy with banning 3rd trimester abortions, or saying that i don't believe in free college, or that i think every adult citizen should pay income tax, and some wiseacre will comment that, "i'm learning," or that, "there's hope for me." i've always been about 50/50 lefty/righty in the positions i hold.

but i overwhelmingly caucus with the democrats because of precisely this kind of thing. i can't possibly caucus with the republicans because they are intellectually dishonest! the christers are gun lovers not because christ loves guns, but because republicans love guns. the white supremacists are climate change deniers because the white supremacists vote republican and so do the climate change deniers, so it's all for one and one for all.

i think it was slowguy who wrote something a few days ago about this place becoming moribund because everyone runs to his side. what we don't have here are elastic minds. i'll know that someone here has an elastic mind when at least a third of what he believes is at odds with what his chosen party believes.

so your position(s) are that 97% of the scientific community agree on climate change.
And that your positions are lefty/righty 50% of the time?
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [Halvard] [ In reply to ]
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Thanks Halvard. Quickly skimming through all that it looks like the vast majority of climate scientists endorse man as a major component of global warming. How much is an open question but for my part I am acting on a precautionary principle for the time being of minimizing by contribution to it. I'm going to keep looking at this because it seems like it should be something most people with some scientific background can understand. The first place I am looking is at tidal monitoring stations as they should provide evidence of sea level rising if it is occurring. I figure they are the most important because the impact of sea level rise would be most important at the shore. Raw climate data is hard to find. Or maybe a more correct statement is not too hard to find but yearly averages etc for given stations not so easy to find.

Life is full of froth and trouble, two things stand in stone
Kindness in another's troubles, courage in one's own
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Re: El Niño was suppose to be wet... [Leddy] [ In reply to ]
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Leddy wrote:
So now it's wrong to question a blanket statement like 97% of scientist believe in climate change ?

Does that automatically make me a white supremacists or republican ?

Quote:
stop it!

I think you are right here. I am sounding like Duffy.

I always heard there were people so hyper religious about their man made warming God that they would suggest people lose rights for even daring to speak their mind. I wrote it off as a myth or someone quoting some batshit crazy lefty but never really thought it came from anyone except "professional journalists" ready for jihad to defend their God, demand compliance and execute non believers. It seems ive spotted what i thought was the equivalent of a unicorn.


~
"You lie!" The Prophet Joe Wilson
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