j p o wrote:
DJRed wrote:
j p o wrote:
Oh my. 1 - Life expectancy at birth was 38. Life expectancy at 40 has only gone up slightly. I could possibly be swayed to go with a term of 10 - 20 years. But I also don't see the SCOTUS being that much of a problem other than losing the 4th amendment and not knowing where they put it.
2 - Ummm, bad news. It wasn't 18 when they wrote it. That was changed in 1971.
3 - No. Hell no. Fuck no. This is the very foundation of our country and legal system.
1 - I'm an actuary. I make the mortality and life expectance tables others use. The statement that life expectancy at 40 has gone up "slightly" is the most incorrect thing ever posted on ST.
2 - I know. It was 21. Makes my argument. Even back then, they knew 18 was too young.
3 - Back in the 1700's, the signers could never have anticipated how ridiculously asinine the jury system would have become. Did they know we'd have DNA testing? Smartphones recording things? Surely, had they known that, they would have advocated trial by jury unless we have photos/video of you committing the crime. Moreover, what would they have said if they knew populations would become so diverse? I mean, the idea of a predominately white jury trying a black man and vice versa was surely not contemplated then? Do you think a right to bear arms is a foundation of our country and our right to protect ourselves?
All I'm saying is we should look at all things Constitution. "Let's have a conversation!"
1 - wrong
https://www.infoplease.com/...ctancy-age-1850-2011
for white males in 1850 at birth life expectancy was 38 - 2011 76 - and you used the 38 number, not me. If you are an actuary you better know using the birth number is the wrong number to use since SCOTUS judges aren't appointed at birth.
at age 40 - 1850 - 27.9 2011 - 38.6 - you can define 10 as not slight, but I don't when opposed to your 38 vs. 76 argument
if you use 60 - 1850 - 15.6 2011 - 21.5
So only living 6 years longer after age 60. And I think even you can see that as 'slightly. '
2 - no, it refutes your argument
our country decided that 18 was the appropriate age recently - nothing has changed in regards to that since '71
3 - no, hell no, fuck no
You are ignoring why that was written. They had a system that bypassed juries in the past. Everyone saw how bad that was, and said, no, hell no, fuck no.
This is why nothing is ever agreed to in the world and there is no longer legitimate discourse.
I am an expert in the field of longevity. With respect to longevity, you are an expert in the interweb.
You trot out a table showing 1850-2011 life expectancies with zero recognition of the mortality improvements experienced from 2011 to 2018, as well as the projected mortality increases that experts in the field are modeling post-2018. Let's assume there were no increases in life expectancy from the late 1700's to 1850 and we use the 27.9 number as our starting point. I'll tell you the life expectancy for a male aged 40 under the most recent actuarial tables published by the Society of Actuaries is 44.6 years.
You claimed 27.9 years vs. 38.6 is "slight", In my world, I call that a 16% increase in the expected age at death, which is significant. How'd you like a 16% increase (or decrease) in your pay? How'd you like to save and prepare to live 27.9 years in retirement and then live 38.6 years. How's that gonna work out for you? Are you only "slightly" eating dog food in those extra 10 years?
With a straight face, I could even call it a 38% increase by just looking at the increase in life expectancy as opposed to the increase in expected age at death. 38%!
In reality, because I don't need to rely on the interweb and can do my own life expectancy analysis, we should really be comparing 27.9 years to 44.6 years. That's a 25% increase in the expected age at death, which is, well, in actuarial terms, "a lot". I won't even try to perpetrate a 60% increase (again just looking at the increase in life expectancy) because that's piling on and it almost makes my numbers seem absurd.
The above is not germane to the original discussion but it is symptomatic of why we can't have a discussion on any topic.
Suppose I really did believe that we should have age limits for the Supreme Court and my position was based on the idea that life expectancy has risen since the Constitution's inception. I can't even get to discussing my original proposition without first navigating and arguing about stuff you only read on the internet. That's a problem. And if you were on one side of the argument and I was on the other and we were trying to rally others to our positions, you'd be using words like "slight" on MSNBC and I'd be using numbers like 25% or even 60% on Fox while calling you "fake news". And our sheepish followers who can't think for themselves will fall right into our respective corners. Then they'll go on Facebook and Twitter and repeat what we said so they can seem relevant, engaged, and informed.
And then MSNBC would bring out experts to contradict my analysis and say that the data collection methods used by the Society of Actuaries are flawed and that I'm not accounting for blue collar vs. white collar, or race, or gender, or...
And then Fox would bring out experts to support my analysis and take it even further talking about expected increases in medicine and how we're going to live to 200, and how Justices have access to the best health care, and...
Wait, what were we talking about again? School shootings? There's been another? Why don't we ever do anything about them?
If only I had an idea.
It's a friggin' intellectual abomination.