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Re: Landa vs Quintana...@ TdF 2018 [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Standing up and saying it doesn't mean that Landa and Valverde will ride for him and sacrifice their own race if needed, in the way that Poels, Thomas or any other Sky rider would for Froome.
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Re: Landa vs Quintana...@ TdF 2018 [cartsman] [ In reply to ]
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cartsman wrote:
Standing up and saying it doesn't mean that Landa and Valverde will ride for him and sacrifice their own race if needed, in the way that Poels, Thomas or any other Sky rider would for Froome.

While I agree with that, Quintana has to go in the attitude of the overall winner for the entire peloton. If he can't claim he is the strongest man at Movistar (and his results already back it up), how can he even convince his own team he can beat Froome, Dumoulin, Bardet, Uran? My 2 cents that spending the first 9 days to the rest day as a "try out" for who is team leader is a waste of team focus and coordination. The actual race should not be a 'try out'. Aside from Lemond vs Hinault, Contador vs Lance, and maybe Wiggins (was the team leader) vs Froome (upstart challenger), it seems to almost never work out and even in these cases, the guy who was more or less the team leader took control over his team and the peloton and won vs letting the internal challenger take it over. (we could debate if Hinault was the team leader or not in 86, it seemed pretty clear that he was the less strong guy).
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Re: Landa vs Quintana...@ TdF 2018 [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Agree, that was my point earlier, they shouldn't be fudging the issue, they should be coming straight out and backing Quintana and if anybody doesn't want to play second fiddle they don't race.

Wiggins vs Froome was never a thing. He dropped him by accident once and then immediately sat up when the team radio asked him WTF he was doing, and a couple of other times he wanted to attack but Wiggins said no and he followed orders. They don't like each other but they weren't attacking each other on the road.
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Re: Landa vs Quintana...@ TdF 2018 [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Baring a crash, sickness or other calamity, there’s basically one stage in first week that could sort things out on GC. Possibly also stage 6’s finale. Stage 9 will likely be more of an every man for themselves affair given the route. So until then I don’t see the issue with having three guys being supported and seeing if one falters.

More so, nobody has been able to threaten Team Sky in recent TdF past so I don’t know why thinking the same old approach would yeild a different result. Lot more danger in multiple threats than an obvious single one.
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Re: Landa vs Quintana...@ TdF 2018 [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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There seems to have been times where the Valverde/Quintana rivalry was detrimental to Quintana.
And that Quintana could have used the help of Valverde but didn’t get it.

I cannot see, however, a case where a Landa/Quintana rivalry would be detrimental to either.
Neither of these riders would make a very good domestiqué. Neither would be much assistance on flats or downhills. And neither needs help on the climbs.

The Sky train will probably continue to set the pace. Movistar can hang out and wait for opportunities.

A two guy approach probably improves Movistars chances.
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Re: Landa vs Quintana...@ TdF 2018 [Velocibuddha] [ In reply to ]
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Velocibuddha wrote:
There seems to have been times where the Valverde/Quintana rivalry was detrimental to Quintana.
And that Quintana could have used the help of Valverde but didn’t get it.

I cannot see, however, a case where a Landa/Quintana rivalry would be detrimental to either.
Neither of these riders would make a very good domestiqué. Neither would be much assistance on flats or downhills. And neither needs help on the climbs.

The Sky train will probably continue to set the pace. Movistar can hang out and wait for opportunities.

A two guy approach probably improves Movistars chances.

If we dial back to last year, there were times when Landa was ordered to help Froome in the mountains. Whether Froome needed the help of not at the time is questionable, but having him there and not light up the race and not go on attacks at the wrong time that could be detrimental is generally a good thing. For example if Quintana flats on a climb (as Contador did on Telegraphe last year during the Galibie stage), if your team plan is that Quintana is the man, then Landa stays back and helps TTT with Quintana back to the front. If you are hedging your bets between the two, Landa just leaves Quintana to fend for himself and goes up the road. I doubt that Sky would have Thomas go up the road and leave and on form Froome on his own to tow himself back. This, to me is the diff between Sky and Movistar.
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Re: Landa vs Quintana...@ TdF 2018 [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
Velocibuddha wrote:
There seems to have been times where the Valverde/Quintana rivalry was detrimental to Quintana.
And that Quintana could have used the help of Valverde but didn’t get it.

I cannot see, however, a case where a Landa/Quintana rivalry would be detrimental to either.
Neither of these riders would make a very good domestiqué. Neither would be much assistance on flats or downhills. And neither needs help on the climbs.

The Sky train will probably continue to set the pace. Movistar can hang out and wait for opportunities.

A two guy approach probably improves Movistars chances.


If we dial back to last year, there were times when Landa was ordered to help Froome in the mountains. Whether Froome needed the help of not at the time is questionable, but having him there and not light up the race and not go on attacks at the wrong time that could be detrimental is generally a good thing. For example if Quintana flats on a climb (as Contador did on Telegraphe last year during the Galibie stage), if your team plan is that Quintana is the man, then Landa stays back and helps TTT with Quintana back to the front. If you are hedging your bets between the two, Landa just leaves Quintana to fend for himself and goes up the road. I doubt that Sky would have Thomas go up the road and leave and on form Froome on his own to tow himself back. This, to me is the diff between Sky and Movistar.

in the case of unexpected emergencies yes, otherwise quintana and landa can both be expected to keep up with the attacks in the mountains (if they can't then they have no chance anyway). they don't need a train to pace them back in the way that sky do (debatable whether froome needs this either but thats how he generally races). valverde will probably be there and happy to sacrifice in case of emergency anyway and if the emergency is too big to recover from they still have one guy at the front

instead, movistar will be the ones throwing in the attacks with their 2 or 3 prongs and forcing sky to use their domestiques to chase it back, hopefully until its just froome against the rest

i'm not saying it is the right approach or will work, but it has a lot going for it in the circumstances of having to break down "fortress froome" and it should spice things up nicely for us spectators :)
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Re: Landa vs Quintana...@ TdF 2018 [Velocibuddha] [ In reply to ]
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Velocibuddha wrote:
There seems to have been times where the Valverde/Quintana rivalry was detrimental to Quintana.
And that Quintana could have used the help of Valverde but didn’t get it.

I cannot see, however, a case where a Landa/Quintana rivalry would be detrimental to either.
Neither of these riders would make a very good domestiqué. Neither would be much assistance on flats or downhills. And neither needs help on the climbs.

The Sky train will probably continue to set the pace. Movistar can hang out and wait for opportunities.

A two guy approach probably improves Movistars chances.

Agreed. If Sky were not in the equation, then you might have an issue as someone, or some team has to set the pace.

And as Carl mentioned, there could be a big shake up after the cobbled stage, so this all may work itself out on the road. It would be stupid for Quintana to declare himself the team leader no matter what before the Stage 1. He is probably the most vulnerable of all the GC contenders on the cobbles...so what if he gets left behind and loses 4 minutes? Movistar isn't going to pull back Valverde and Landa in hopes of bridging to the front of the pack on a cobbled stage. If he gets dropped while Valverde or Landa stays up front, then it is what it is. Is he still going to beat his tiny chest and demand that Valverde and Landa ride for him?
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Re: Landa vs Quintana...@ TdF 2018 [Jason N] [ In reply to ]
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Valverde was throwing bombs in Dwars door Vlaanderen, while Quintana had a respectable ride but nowhere near same level. Zero chance Movistar will have someone ahead sit up and wait while the GC rides out of sight. Nibali put his marker down on TdF win on same type of stage. Rest of the contenders should be worried about the GC/classics strongmen like him, Valverde, TD, GT and maybe Bardet.
Last edited by: Carl Spackler: Jun 20, 18 20:06
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Re: Landa vs Quintana...@ TdF 2018 [pk1] [ In reply to ]
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It's not that Froome needs a train, it's that there is always a draft advantage, however small, and that riding a steady pace conserves energy better than surging. Sky's tactics and having the whole team riding for Froome are all about keeping him where he needs to be for the minimal energy expenditure possible. Which is what allows him to race strong over 3 weeks. When Froome does go on the attack it's invariably in a situation where the other GC riders have to burn matches to try and stay with him.

If Movistar are throwing in 2 or 3 prong attacks while Sky have domestiques around to defend them then I imagine Sky will be delighted because it means Quintana and co are burning matches while Froome isn't. Quintana's best chance is to have Valverde and Landa making those attacks for him and trying to isolate Froome while he sits in and follows. He should only be attacking Froome when he's isolated and it's a big enough climb that he has a good chance of gapping him and making time, or at least making Froome work as hard as Quintana is to stay on. But if he isn't the agreed leader then Landa or Valverde may not be willing to work for him in that way.

Giro was a classic because we saw Yates throwing in all these impressive surges and taking 20 seconds here, 30 seconds there. When it turns out all he was doing was burning himself out so he could lose 35 minutes on a single stage. Dumoulin rode with the right tactics, he just couldn't stay with Froome when the hammer went down on a big climb.
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Re: Landa vs Quintana...@ TdF 2018 [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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I think Valverde is a better all around rider than Nairo & should have been team lead in the past. He seems to not be allowed to be much more than a team support at the pointy end, but consistenty shows capability beyond his allowed placing by team management.
Last edited by: Rocky M: Jun 20, 18 21:03
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Re: Landa vs Quintana...@ TdF 2018 [Rocky M] [ In reply to ]
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Rocky M wrote:
I think Valverde is a better all around rider than Nairo & should have been team lead in the past. He seems to not be allowed to be much more than a team support at the pointy end, but consistenty shows capability beyond his allowed placing by team management.

Valverde has awful days in Grand Tours with a frequency that makes Tejay Van Garderen look like Bernard Hinault.

But maybe once he hits his prime he can ride with more consistency.
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Re: Landa vs Quintana...@ TdF 2018 [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Dev, Roglic may be the guy to upend the Sky empire. They got 5 dudes though. Roglic is an animal.
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Re: Landa vs Quintana...@ TdF 2018 [cartsman] [ In reply to ]
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cartsman wrote:
It's not that Froome needs a train, it's that there is always a draft advantage, however small, and that riding a steady pace conserves energy better than surging. Sky's tactics and having the whole team riding for Froome are all about keeping him where he needs to be for the minimal energy expenditure possible. Which is what allows him to race strong over 3 weeks. When Froome does go on the attack it's invariably in a situation where the other GC riders have to burn matches to try and stay with him.

If Movistar are throwing in 2 or 3 prong attacks while Sky have domestiques around to defend them then I imagine Sky will be delighted because it means Quintana and co are burning matches while Froome isn't. Quintana's best chance is to have Valverde and Landa making those attacks for him and trying to isolate Froome while he sits in and follows. He should only be attacking Froome when he's isolated and it's a big enough climb that he has a good chance of gapping him and making time, or at least making Froome work as hard as Quintana is to stay on. But if he isn't the agreed leader then Landa or Valverde may not be willing to work for him in that way.

Giro was a classic because we saw Yates throwing in all these impressive surges and taking 20 seconds here, 30 seconds there. When it turns out all he was doing was burning himself out so he could lose 35 minutes on a single stage. Dumoulin rode with the right tactics, he just couldn't stay with Froome when the hammer went down on a big climb.

Movistar can't out-Sky Sky in terms of putting a train together and riding tempo, and they won't be able to "out-formigel" Sky by trying an ambush all animated from inside their team. Quintana has proven that when he just rides steady for 3 weeks he ends up on podiums all the time. The difference this time is that Froome and Dumoulin are not as fresh as the last two times he got beaten by them (TdF and Giro). The downside is that the ITT is the day before Paris, not early in week 3 like the Giro. In the last week in the Pyranees before the ITT you have Tourmalet and Aubisque on a 200K+ stage the day before the ITT. I would expect Landa to lose a ton of time on that ITT and I would think Quintana loses less to Froome and Dumoulin. Those two guys may be softened up more by their 6th week of Grand Tour racing in 12 weeks. Quintana can probably outride everyone else to the podium just by being a robot climber and not doing anything crazy, but I think he will have to hope that Froome and Dumoulin have a jour-sans and have a single day where they crack and lose some time. That feel like Movistar's best shot against these guys. Going on a bunch of crazy attacks all over the place probably nets nothing. Froome will have a Dauphine winner to be last man in his train to pull most of the losses back. Then he'll have a 30K ITT to take back 10 second per kilometer!!!

I am not sure what Movistar can do with 30K of TTTing and 30K of ITTing to hammer Sky though. Maybe 2 leaders is not bad, but when the second leader is even worse in the ITT+TTT, then it seems right to bet on your former podium guy who also showed decent form at Tour de Suisse.
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Re: Landa vs Quintana...@ TdF 2018 [DBF] [ In reply to ]
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Roglic is an animal. He can TT and climb damn well. I just don't see him having a strong enough team to unseat the favorites. I could see him hitting the podium though. Great rider!
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Re: Landa vs Quintana...@ TdF 2018 [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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You basically just explained why Quintana as the sole leader doesn’t make sense. Sky could take a minute out of Movistar in TTT and more in ITT. So Quintana climbing like a robot is not likely enough to change outcome.

Even if Froome or TD crack there’s still GT, Porte, Uran and Roglic, all superior TTers (and TTT in case of BMC). Not to mention Bardet is looking very good.
Last edited by: Carl Spackler: Jun 21, 18 12:54
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Re: Landa vs Quintana...@ TdF 2018 [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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Carl Spackler wrote:
You basically just explained why Quintana as the sole leader doesn’t make sense. Sky could take a minute out of Movistar in TTT and more in ITT. So Quintana climbing like a robot is not likely enough to change outcome.

Even if Froome or TD crack there’s still GT, Porte, Uran and Roglic, all superior TTers (and TTT in case of BMC). Not to mention Barsed is looking very good.

If Froome or Dumoulin are off, Quintana has beaten all the guys you mentioned in a 3 week grand tour. He can beat all of them even with lesser TTing ability!
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Re: Landa vs Quintana...@ TdF 2018 [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Uran beat Quintana last year, thought that was with a Giro in his legs. Which tour has Quintana straight-up beaten Porte, who he just handled without great difficulty at TdS? And this will be Roglic's first real go at GC.
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Re: Landa vs Quintana...@ TdF 2018 [turdburgler] [ In reply to ]
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turdburgler wrote:
Roglic is an animal. He can TT and climb damn well. I just don't see him having a strong enough team to unseat the favorites. I could see him hitting the podium though. Great rider!

to my understanding kruijswijk is the GC leader for lotto-jumbo. roglic is also having a go at GC but first time ever in a GT so he's a wildcard. with that pair plus gesink they have some climbing power but also a split squad with groenewegen for the sprints. will be interesting to see what roglic can do over 3 weeks
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Re: Landa vs Quintana...@ TdF 2018 [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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Carl Spackler wrote:
Uran beat Quintana last year, thought that was with a Giro in his legs. Which tour has Quintana straight-up beaten Porte, who he just handled without great difficulty at TdS? And this will be Roglic's first real go at GC.

TdF 2016 Quintana beat Porte. In fairness they were only 1 min apart. At the TdF, 2015 he beat Bardet, and 2016 him and Bardet were close (1 min gap that Bardet beat him by). Over 3 weeks Quintana has a solid track record over everyone other than Froome and Dumoulin other than last year's post Giro fatigue. Quintana can be the fastest of the small guys relative to Porte and Bardet, just like those 2 other guys could flip it on Quintana. Quintana will be weaker than Porte on TT's but not quite as weak relative to Froome and Bardet's TTing is in the same category at Quintana. So if Froome and Dumoulin are not in the race (fatigue, crash, jour sans), it's a toss up with those other guys. If they are in the race and "on", I am not sure what he can do to beat them and I don't think Landa can do anything useful to beat them. Movistar would be better off using Landa to work with Quintana all the way through in case Froome/Dumoulin falter and then they have a really good chance. But not sure how much they will gain trying to attack all over the place and try to build a massive time gap on these strong TTers. Look what happened to Yates on Finestre with that approach.

The one good thing that they have going for them is that Froome does need to attack Dumoulin and Movistar can gain from that by going with Froome and dropping Dumoulin. Then I can see the Quintana + Landa counter attacks later on Froome being useful for stage time bonuses. But I can't see those adding up to enough to beat Froome, but maybe enough to beat Bardet/Porte/Nibali etc with whom Quintana is more evenly matched over 3 weeks.
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Re: Landa vs Quintana...@ TdF 2018 [trail] [ In reply to ]
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Day 1, Movistar leaves Quintana with no help to chase back up. They are giving up time for their best man already because they have no team leader!
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