Just thought of something else is that McCain will probably not make the upcoming vote. Now I always thought that this rule was pretty archaic, but it is a rule you have to be physically there to vote. This makes Rubio's no vote an absolute blocker with Corkers still in place.

And he is fighting for child care credit not a bridge to no where, trying to make himself a fighter for the American family before the next election? I think so and it is a brilliant move..

McCain is in Maryland right? I can see him showing up just to vote no and then going back.

---

"The great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do."

or showing up just to vote yes and then going back.....

Ya I don't know what McCain's pork was in the bill and if the house fucked with it or not. But as far as I can tell, he is a yes at this point, but I wouldn't bet any money on it. He has to know he could be in the same super strong position that Rubio is in at the moment, just got to figure out what he can extort for his yes vote..

The real problem is going to be if a bunch of never Trumpers figure this thing out and decide this is the time to bring home some bacon, it will be impossible to please everyone without pissing someone else off. It is all going to hinge on how important the all think that they have to pass something, even though 2/3 of the people don't like it. They are all gambling that a win will be a win no matter what, at least it will keep the dollars from the 1% coming into the party..

So just saw that senator Mike Lee of Utah is not on the fence. I think it is going to now be a race on who can get their name out there before it becomes meaningless. They will try and swat( well feed them honey actually) the few flies quickly and get this to a vote ASAP I think. But it may already be too late..

I think McCain's tipover to yes was the clincher

I think my own Senator Johnson was paying lip service before ultimately getting to yes. I think many of the others who are blustering are doing just that; if you look closely they are mostly talking "tough" about how this will affect the deficit (not that they are actually concerned about the cut itself).

Sorry, I just don't read it the same way you do. I think this is going through, in part because most are true believers and in part because they need(ed) to get something done after health care.

My response in the Ryan thread earlier is based in part on my belief that he thinks this is done and is now floating retirement balloons. This (and SS) has been his white whale since Reagan passed his tax cuts.

I think Rubio is mostly bluster at the moment. If he holds out it's because he can (they can pass without him) and he is using for a 2020 run. If the shit gets tight, his vote is on the yes side (IMO).

We'll see, should be an interesting couple days.

I don't think the two "sick" senators are an issue. And to your question about whether they will wait for Jones to be seated, not a chance.

I'm not against your short (though I wouldn't have bet the farm......) and I agree with you that things are overheated. I just don't see your reasons (either the Jones win or this act going down) coming to fruition or the things that's going to cause the correction. I wouldn't short right now because my timing just wouldn't be right (I don't know what "the thing" is).

(though I wouldn't have bet the farm......) and I agree with you that things are overheated. //

Definitely not the farm, maybe a tool shed..(-; And I agree that I think they get it done, but my odds are going up by the minute that it may not be, that is my best case scenario. That "should" trigger a massive correction. But my real bet is just a modest correction on selling on the news.


Hell I've not put too much money to work since trump took office. Just been day trading so to speak on some stocks I follow, getting in and out with small gains(thanks Trump). Of course I have left a lot on the table, but at these levels with Trumps twitter finger, I just have not been comfortable just letting it ride. Guessing I will stay in this mode too, until he is gone one way or the other.

I'm glad. My response the other night was my perception of the farm (seems like shaky ground for an all in).

I have a large chunk that has sat on the sidelines waiting for the downtick for 18 months (since it came into my possession) and just watched it continue to not be the right time. I get it. I haven't missed anything that has happened since 2008 from a regular investing perspective (dollar avg in) , but I also participated fully in 2008.......

Trade SPY Puts, have limited down side, and easier risk management...

https://www.steadyhand.com/...tility_this_is_wild/

I read this yesterday. I thought it was interesting. Least volatility we have seen in the markets in likely 30 years in the last year. Canadian market is just getting into territory above the 2008 crash of course the American market is really high. The index they use is 50 percent America stocks and the rest a basket of 22 other developed countries. I don't do anything micro I don't even know how to short a stock.

---

They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

Seems like shorting is the wrong play.

If you believe the tax plan is a gift to the rich and business owners (same difference?), there should be an uptick if it passes.

If it doesn't pass, then the status quo is maintained, and the market keeps going up at the current rate.

What makes you think the market is on the verge of collapse (correction)? And all it would take is a not-positive event would trigger it?

It is already baked in that it is going to pass, the market predicts, usually. That is why there’s so many sell on the news scenarios

If a politician votes no it's because he's not getting enough pork, not because there is too much pork. Another group of politicians want to get in the news so they will claim they oppose a vote to get attention from the media, and to gain favor from their party.

Rubio is doing that now.

If a politician votes no it's because he's not getting enough pork, not because there is too much pork. //

Well we are talking about two different houses now. The house members are the ones right now cutting pork they don't like from the Senate, and just some stuff they don't like. Stuff like the state tax deductions, the doubling of the mortgage interest, inheritance, etc. They are the ones voting no on some of this stuff. Then it becomes the senate's turn to fire back, so digging in now and saying it is my pork or the highway.


Unfortunately for the house the senate is just so close that in order to actually get this done, they have to cave to just a few loud senators. Ryan can lose some votes and still be ok, but with McCain likely out, McConnell has to get basically 100% of the remaining senators that voted yes the first time. And some senators are just now seeing what a powerful position they are in as far as negotiating goes. As long as it is not the bridge to no where, pretty much everything has to be on the table in reconciliation.

Because the expectation that a really good plan that helps the economy would pass has been driving the market up all year. The market doesn't run on the status quo, but on expectations. The reality is that this actual plan seems to have an enormous number of problems, especially medium- and long-term. Also, not passing something would cause a sharp downturn, because that would be unexpected. However, timing the market ... forget it.

I'm probably taking 10-20% off the table pretty soon (I've been pretty much all in since 2009).

However, timing the market ... forget it.
I'm probably taking 10-20% off the table pretty soon (I've been pretty much all in since 2009). //

So you are timing the market?? (-;

I said "probably" and only a small amount. I am probably over-exposed, given my age....

Got it, probably, maybe, perhaps going to time the market with up to 20% of your portfolio.

Lol! You really believe this?

At most there are a few percentage points involved in the market's opinion of the "really good plan" that Congress is brewing for us.
The tax plan isn't driving this market.