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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [dvfmfidc] [ In reply to ]
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dvfmfidc wrote:
That's when I worry about little fat rocket boy.

Apparently, this latest ICBM is capable of striking anywhere on the US mainland. That increases the pucker factor greatly.

Then, you have to look at what in military strategy is called "intentions and capabilities." When assessing whether an enemy (or even a friend) presents a credible threat you look for indications of possible intention to do so, along with the capability to fulfill or carry out their intentions.

This is why a NorK ICBM presents such a high threat. Kim and the North talk far too much about making war on the United States, for one. That's a possible good indicator of a credible intention. Then you have their capabilities. We don't know at present whether they've been able to scale down a nuclear weapon such that it can be placed atop one of their new ICBMs (or even made into a MIRV, or "multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle" (though there's no doubt they're trying hard to acquire the ability)), but it seems only a matter of time until they do so.

That gives them the capability, so we either move towards a MAD (mutual assured destruction) scenario with them, hoping they're not as crazy as they make themselves out to be, or we strike at them after allowing them to strike us first, taking a serious hit in the process, or we preemptively strike first them using conventional forces and weapons and hope we can keep the conflict from escalating into a war or, God forbid, a nuclear exchange with China or we remain at the current status, which cannot last for much longer, unfortunately.

None of the options above is palatable in the least, but it's where we're at.

"Politics is just show business for ugly people."
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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [CW in NH] [ In reply to ]
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Fair enough

What sort of power is really needed to deal with the targets they need to hit
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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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Quote:

This is why a NorK ICBM presents such a high threat. Trump and the some folks in the US talk far too much about making war on the North Korea, for one. That's a possible good indicator of a credible intention. Then you have their capabilities.....


Fixed it.
Last edited by: oldandslow: Nov 29, 17 7:25
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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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Is war with China really that big of a credible threat? China is interested in expanding their influence through business and culture, not so much through force. A war with the US would be very bad for business. They are not so short sighted. I can't see China getting dragged in to a war against the US, especially over the DPRK.

Long Chile was a silly place.
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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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All this heightened concern about the DPRK after this ICBM launch is misplaced. It actually reduces the overall threat level and makes progress on talks more likely. DPRK will possibly conduct some more tests on re-entry, but this milestone suggests further similar tests are unnecessary.

DPRK now has the strategic ambiguity it needs - its adversaries must now assume it has the capability to strike the US mainland, and with that the DPRK has a face-saving way to halt its ICBM tests. Kim Jong-un said as much, when he said after this test that the nuclear program was now complete. Trump can save face too, by referencing a better behaved North Korea and taking credit for it. There will be a better sense of stability in the region.
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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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That would assume that either leader is capable of shifting their tone, or that they had a populace that was capable of accepting such a shift. Please point to any evidence of this.
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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [oldandslow] [ In reply to ]
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They don't really need to shift their tone. I'm saying you will see a more well behaved N Korea and both sides will claim a 'win,' NK for obtaining an inter-continental nuclear threat, and Trump for forcing NK to stop all the missile tests. We'll see, but I think it's the most likely outcome.
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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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They don't really need to shift their tone. I'm saying you will see a more well behaved N Korea and both sides will claim a 'win,'


Trump and Kim are cut from the same cloth. They don't need to do anything to claim a win.
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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [RangerGress] [ In reply to ]
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RangerGress wrote:
cartsman wrote:
This might be a dumb question but when NK launches these things, how do the US and lithe countries know there isn't a nuke on them? I'm assuming they know they're not armed based on there being no attempt to shoot them down, nor any warnings or evacuations from possible targets that I'm aware of.

Is it just based on taking the trajectory, figuring out it's going to land in the sea, and therefore determining it's just a test? Or can a nuclear warhead actually be detected somehow? I assume we have some human intelligence assets in NK but you'd think they'd want more than that before determining a missile is harmless.

Should be able to ID pretty quick if the missile is a threat to the US or not. In order to come here, the missile would have to get a lot of altitude. I imagine that NK tries to avoid ambiguity on this issue because they know how badly we'd feel if we wiped out the ulcer, but maybe it could have been avoided if we'd just waited a little longer so that we were "sure" that the missile was headed for San Francisco.


TimeIsUp wrote:

Don't cross that red line? Remember the pubs collective heart attack about that one? I'm more worried about Islamic terrorists killing me than NK ever attacking US mainland. Which is to say, not one goddamn bit.

Unlike terrorists (as far as we know), NK has nukes. Looks like they have the capability of getting one here, that is to say, 1950's technology. Our ability to intercept the nuke is iffy. Even if the nuke hit the corner of the US farthest from you, the impact to our economy would be huge. Heck, they could just do an EMP and do far worse. It would make all our previous depressions look like minor hiccups. Millions out of work, our country struggling to borrow money so that handouts could keep food on our tables, it'd prob be 50yrs before our economy recovered. Remember, during the "Great Depression" we were a "creditor" country, not a debtor country. Might be much harder for the government to borrow to feed us today. So they'd print money, which would soon become so devalued as to be of little value. All sorts of dystopic fiction books would suddenly seem prescient. And it all hangs on the whims of a nutjob.

Imo it's entirely reasonable to be concerned re. NK.


You have me wanting to get my bug out bag and head for the nearest mountain range. Admittedly I don't pay that much attention to NK or the little nutjob running the place as he has been threatening for years. But, taking your word on it, this sounds like an escalation of things. Wonder where the doomsday clock is now.
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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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big kahuna wrote:
dvfmfidc wrote:
That's when I worry about little fat rocket boy.


Apparently, this latest ICBM is capable of striking anywhere on the US mainland. That increases the pucker factor greatly.

Then, you have to look at what in military strategy is called "intentions and capabilities." When assessing whether an enemy (or even a friend) presents a credible threat you look for indications of possible intention to do so, along with the capability to fulfill or carry out their intentions.

This is why a NorK ICBM presents such a high threat. Kim and the North talk far too much about making war on the United States, for one. That's a possible good indicator of a credible intention. Then you have their capabilities. We don't know at present whether they've been able to scale down a nuclear weapon such that it can be placed atop one of their new ICBMs (or even made into a MIRV, or "multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle" (though there's no doubt they're trying hard to acquire the ability)), but it seems only a matter of time until they do so.

That gives them the capability, so we either move towards a MAD (mutual assured destruction) scenario with them, hoping they're not as crazy as they make themselves out to be, or we strike at them after allowing them to strike us first, taking a serious hit in the process, or we preemptively strike first them using conventional forces and weapons and hope we can keep the conflict from escalating into a war or, God forbid, a nuclear exchange with China or we remain at the current status, which cannot last for much longer, unfortunately.

None of the options above is palatable in the least, but it's where we're at.


A question to you military types and guys more in the know. So assuming Kim is able to launch a nuclear device ( the one he has shown on tv) and it is a direct hit on Los Angeles or San Francisco or Portland? What area of destruction would it cover? Would it reach to New Mexico or Colorado? Would it make California a wasteland? Nuclear fallout and the entire half or the US in inhabitable?

If you live in Cali should you make plans to move soon?
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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [ACE] [ In reply to ]
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If you live in Cali should you make plans to move soon? //

Pretty sure one warhead is not going to lay California to waste, think it is more like a 30 mile radius?? But this is actually really good news for us here in CA, now that his missles can reach the White House I think we are in the clear now. My guess that little Kim's new primary targets are now Trump tower in NY, Maro Lago in FLA, and the White House.


Time to move back to CA I would say, Trump is not coming here and we won't let him build any of his palaces here either..
Last edited by: monty: Nov 29, 17 9:12
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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
If you live in Cali should you make plans to move soon? //

Pretty sure one warhead is not going to lay California to waste, think it is more like a 30 mile radius?? But this is actually really good news for us here in CA, now that his misses can reach the White House I think we are in the clear now. My guess that little Kim's new primary targets are now Trump tower in NY, Maro Lago in FLA, and the White House.


Time to move back to CA I would say, Trump is not coming here and we won't let him build any of his palaces here either..

that was my main question: what is the radius of damage for what Kim has? Casualty estimates of direct hit on a major city.

If he can reach DC, agreed the Whitehouse is probably his target. I've been to cali many times, nice weather, great geography, too many damn people and too much traffic. :)
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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [ACE] [ In reply to ]
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Wikipedia says that NK has detonated at 250KT weapon. This is a big deal because it means "fusion bomb" which is much more complex than "fission" bomb.

This site calculates effects radius of weapon. Put in the city and the size of the weapon. http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

I don't have any expertise in this kinda stuff.

At the website I entered an 250KT airburst over Los Angeles. Largest local affect is thermal. Burn you to death out to about 4mi. Site estimates >350k KIA with radiation affects included.

The economic melt down might cost more lives then the actual detonation.

Books @ Amazon
"If only he had used his genius for niceness, instead of Evil." M. Smart
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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [BLeP] [ In reply to ]
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I trust our government and the President more than I trust little fat boy ..And I am very confidant our military will be prepared defensively and offensively as per the Presidents orders.
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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [dvfmfidc] [ In reply to ]
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dvfmfidc wrote:
I trust our government and the President more than I trust little fat boy ..And I am very confidant our military will be prepared defensively and offensively as per the Presidents orders.

that leads to another question..assuming fat bastard gets a rocket airborne headed for the US, could the US shoot it down or prevent it from detonating and causing mass casualties? I have seen people say we are prepared and not to worry about it, but why? Do we still have a star wars system from the 80's? If we can't shoot down these warheads with high accuracy I think it is something to worry about quite a bit.
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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [RangerGress] [ In reply to ]
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RangerGress wrote:
Wikipedia says that NK has detonated at 250KT weapon. This is a big deal because it means "fusion bomb" which is much more complex than "fission" bomb.

This site calculates effects radius of weapon. Put in the city and the size of the weapon. http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

I don't have any expertise in this kinda stuff.

At the website I entered an 250KT airburst over Los Angeles. Largest local affect is thermal. Burn you to death out to about 4mi. Site estimates >350k KIA with radiation affects included.

The economic melt down might cost more lives then the actual detonation.


That site is awesome. I inputted Detroit and a 250 kt device. We're fine where we live right now, but bad news for one of my old neighborhoods in Southwest Detroit (Delray), though another one down there (Springwells Village) is just outside the farthest reaches of the thermal radiation radius. This isn't counting the inevitable fallout, of course. ;-)

As with all these Al-Qaeda/ISIS terror attacks, I think the two most-likely locations for such a missile though, are Washington, D.C. and NYC (political structure in one, financial in the other). Of course, the Russians and the Chinese have thousands of such missiles and we'd all get the chop if they launched.

The NorKs, though, would be committing suicide if they launched on us and I hope they know that. They simply don't have the throw-weight to win a nuclear exchange with us. Not even remotely close. We'd take a serious blow, no doubt about it. But one we could recover from in short order, even (loss of life would be horrendous, I freely admit). They, on the other hand, would become an extinct species about 30 minutes after hitting us.

Seriously, if they were really interested in trying to decapitate us, they'd sneak the device in somehow (and not saying they can... but after closely observing TSA all these years, I'm not saying they can't either ;-) and detonate it right smack in the area of the Capitol (taking out all three branches simultaneously) or do the same down in NYC's financial district.

"Politics is just show business for ugly people."
Last edited by: big kahuna: Nov 29, 17 10:54
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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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I worry that our nation's infrastructure is quite delicate. We're all so terrible dependent on elaborate systems that provide municipal and utility services, and make the basic staples of life available. Most of us have lots of debt and our assets are mostly in electronic form. Instead of being a self-reliant people, most of us are frail and needy, altho we fool ourselves otherwise. What a nuke strike started, our panic would expand.

Books @ Amazon
"If only he had used his genius for niceness, instead of Evil." M. Smart
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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [ACE] [ In reply to ]
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We have technology to knock shit out of the sky, just haven't perfected it yet. It is a top priority though.

When I was on travel to a nice warm tropical place recently, I witnessed some of that testing. Smart MoFo's working on that stuff.
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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [dvfmfidc] [ In reply to ]
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dvfmfidc wrote:
But hey, lets continue the discussion about the real important things like pocohantas and net neutrality..
Not to worry. The POTUS knows how to prioritize his time.

Wow, Matt Lauer was just fired from NBC for “inappropriate sexual behavior in the workplace.” But when will the top executives at NBC & Comcast be fired for putting out so much Fake News. Check out Andy Lack’s past!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 29, 2017

So now that Matt Lauer is gone when will the Fake News practitioners at NBC be terminating the contract of Phil Griffin? And will they terminate low ratings Joe Scarborough based on the “unsolved mystery” that took place in Florida years ago? Investigate!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 29, 2017

http://deadline.com/2017/11/donald-trump-tweet-matt-lauer-fired-andy-lack-investigation-1202216352/


"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.
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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [Alvin Tostig] [ In reply to ]
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Of course they do. That's why they delegate, so they can get back to fucking with the minds of the weak!
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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [dvfmfidc] [ In reply to ]
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dvfmfidc wrote:
We have technology to knock shit out of the sky, just haven't perfected it yet. It is a top priority though.

When I was on travel to a nice warm tropical place recently, I witnessed some of that testing. Smart MoFo's working on that stuff.

PMRF, baby. Great Navy duty station. ;-)

"Politics is just show business for ugly people."
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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [RangerGress] [ In reply to ]
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Um you know this argument can be flipped very easily. China might decide that it is worth it. Besides that nuclear fallout is going to drift somewhere, it might be over China. They will not be happy about that either.

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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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Damn, I just plugged in the two biggest Russian bombs and if they hit anywhere near LA it will wipe me out on the other side of the mountains in a blaze of glory. Looks like their biggest is about 3 times our largest. OF course when you have 1000's of them doesn't really matter, just have to push a couple more buttons...

Plug that one into your Detroit and see how you do..)-;
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Re: NKOREA LAUNCHES ICBM [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
Damn, I just plugged in the two biggest Russian bombs and if they hit anywhere near LA it will wipe me out on the other side of the mountains in a blaze of glory. Looks like their biggest is about 3 times our largest. OF course when you have 1000's of them doesn't really matter, just have to push a couple more buttons...

Plug that one into your Detroit and see how you do..)-;

I did, believe me. You know what they say: you go to heaven for the climate and hell for the company. ;-)

"Politics is just show business for ugly people."
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