I think Phillip Graves and Sanders could both push a strong bike pace at IMAZ.

I'm not sure where they will be relative to each other after the swim?!?! But based on what Graves has done in the UK time trial scene, he and Sanders could push each other similar to what Sanders/Kienle/Wurf did in Kona.

Symonds is on the start list for Cozumel too, surely he's not racing back to back weekends.

Brent should be in good shape to go as he never did much in Hawaii

Well first of all how does anyone think that he has magically since Kona closed the 5 minute gap to the lead swim group? Have you folks never swam a stroke before? He is where he is and it won't budge between October and November. The lead group could slow down as I see not a great amount of top swimmers, but should be enough to do that 48 again. Perhaps he will only lose 4 minutes instead of 5, but he is not swimming 50 flat unless the leaders are going 45's..

I see Phillip Graves in the race but haven't seen his form since he came on the scene. He was Starky like in that he has a front pack swim with a hammer bike, so if he is where he once was it could be fun for awhile during the bike ride. Brent is of course the only challenger, but a long shot for sure.

One never knows what is in the head of guys like Lionel, he doesn't seem to think past the race he is currently doing, so he may drill it the entire way. He shouldn't, just take a win and move onto the off season. He certainly is not going 7;35 unless his mother is measuring the courses..

He swam 53:45 last year (wetsuit swim) and is a massively better swimmer this year. He swam 53:41 at Kona leading his group most of the way. In this wetsuit swim at AZ if he can stay on the feet of the big group that came in at 50 (through the initial surge) I don't see why he wouldn't be able to stay with them the rest of the way.

He swam 53:45 last year (wetsuit swim) and is a massively better swimmer this year. He swam 53:41 at Kona leading his group most of the way.//

Hey Sean, all swim times on different courses are not created equal, sorry bud..In Kona he was over 6 minutes behind the leader, 5 minutes behind the lead group, that is the important number. In Az last year he was 5 minutes behind the leader, that is the important number. Like I said, the lead group won't be drilling it like Kona and he might have a minute more in him, but he is still gonna be around 4 minutes or so off the lead swimmer. He will not be on their feet, take that to the bank...(-; Unless of course he pays them to swim for him, he tried that once...

The swim will be a different dynamic this year for sure. There are a couple of fast guys but I think the front group will be more sustained with a 2nd group in the low 50s. I think Sanders might have an outside chance of sticking with that group and come in the 51 range or so. The reason it is a crapshot is attendance by pros at IMAZ keeps falling. At one time this was the premier race with tons of racers and intermediate swimmers. Those intermediate swimmers are what we call gap fillers that allow other guys to form a long continuous chain of guys instead of gaps. With less gap fillers there is less margin of error. Less margin for error means you need a greater awareness. We shall see. Regardless, I am excited to watch!!!

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How deep does that 80K pay out? 5 athletes deep?

All this said basically all Lionel has to do is put about 7-10 minutes on Brent on bike and cruise in for the win/validation. I can't see him going 'Kona Deep' again. There is no need...

if you read that whole page i linked (it's not long) you would've found the answer... it pays out to 10th place at 80k races.

Bumping this back up as it's race week. So as to the question of Lionel's intentions for this race, here's some interesting intel from his strava.









And in case you didn't see this on IG...


https://www.instagram.com/...taken-by=lsanderstri

Both of those workouts look like workouts that he swore off— Race pace for a very long time. Interesting.

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https://twitter.com/mungub

Wow if that is calibrated correctly it was a real grind workout! 78 cadence is way low!

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Are these 'fake workouts'?

The bike looks like intervals at 350w. 1st interval 1 hr, 2nd 45 min then 3 at 10 min? Then he finished off with 5 30s efforts at 400w.

The run is easier just to post the plot, doesn't look like steady pace the whole time.

Spot on breakdown. Lionel is going to have a good race.

There would be nothing interesting out of that, the outcome is well known. This is triathlon and not a bike race.

Graves is a front pack swimmer, so Sanders will have to bike up to him first. Sanders is a way better runner vs Graves. Phil Graves is your typical strong Swim-Biker.

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29 years and counting

You may not find it interesting, but others, like myself, just might.

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Graves has been riding 3:20 centuries in the UK TT scene. He and Wurf were riding IM Wales together, but Graves went down hard on an oil slick someone put down. Graves will probably have a few minutes on Sanders out of the water, but expect them to hammer together and then Sanders to put 1+ minute per mile into him on the run.

Cool I hope Phillip is back on form, will make the race to T2 much more exciting. I don't think anyone believes that anyone other than Lionel is going to win this race, as long as he is healthy and doesn't crash. That is what all the talk is about the race before the finish, the one to T2, that should provide some entertainment and there is some solid speculation about what could happen there.