I think a 5:08 500 would translate to more like 10:33-ish for the 1000. From discussions with several pros in the past, I think you need to be around 10:15 to be assured of making first pack, i.e., you might make it with a slower time if you get on the right feet at right time, but 10:15 enables you to worry less about that.

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

It is all over the map and it is very hard to judge pool times and open water swim times. Open water swimming is a true skill and then there are people who perform on race day but not so much in training and vice versa. There are some discussions on here in the past by Rappstar. The male pro swim start also tends to be 100% full gas until you can find your place and settle in which is usually around the 400-800 meter mark.

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Shitty open water swimmers better be close to 5:00 flat in the pool
Average open water swimmers should be good around 5:10 - 5:15
Excellent open water swimmers might sneak into a front pack around 5:20 - 5:30.
And by excellent I mean great sighting, drafting, and above all, the ability to change speed on demand.

I worked with a couple male pros last season. One just time trialed a 5:45 / 500 yard in the pool but he did well in the open water as he was tenacious and could really hold feet, redline and recover, through the crazy opening 500 meters. He made some 2nd packs and some 3rd packs about equally. He took a 2nd, 4th, 7th overalls and then 26th at worlds. (70.3) Previous (2016) season he was closer to 6:00 / 500 with far less skill at speed changes and would come swimming in by himself every race. IMO, it was the skills we developed that paid far higher dividends than those :03 / 100.

Other guy was about 5:10 in the pool (maybe a touch quicker) and couldn't make a front pack to save his life. I was just consulting with him, and basically confirmed that yes something (everything?) indeed sucked about his open water skills.

+ 1 There is very little correlation between pool swim times and open water. Probably like comparing track to cross country running. Different sports, different skill sets. Some people can get pretty good at both, most can’t :-)

First, they are both going sub-6 for 500 yd, it's not like you're comparing a 7:30 500 guy and a 5:00 guy; 2nd, Mr. 5:10 may not have made any first packs but he was making 2nd/3rd packs along with Mr. 5:45. Give Mr. 5:10 just a few more OW swims and I suspect he will get much closer to making the front pack; anyone who goes 5:10 should be better at making on-demand speed changes, since he obv has more speed to start with. I don't give a sheet what anyone says, there is a strong correlation between pool performance and OW; as long as the pool guy has worked at his sighting and drafting, 8 times out of 10, Mr. 5:10 will beat Mr. 5:45 OOTW by 1:45 or more over 1500 m. To put it in 1500 scm/1650 yd times, sure a 22 min 1650 guy, maybe even a 23 min guy, may come out with a 21 min guy, but a 26 min 1650 guy is NOT going to be drafting off Mr. 21 and coming out right behind him.

Sure, OW swimming is a skill set but speed in the pool still matters in the final analysis.

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

I retired from the pro ranks a few years back. I made the podium a handful of times. I was a front pack swimmer.

For me, in the pool, my test set that assured me I would make the front pack with ease was 20x100 (scy) on 1:10 holding <1:05. I swam three days a week and would do this set every fortnight. It wasn't too hard of a set, but if I had difficulty, I would add one more swim in a week.

One up for (GREAT) OWS skills tend to trump Great pool swimming when the overall fitness level is still fairly high. I've never broken 5:25 (scy, in high school, tapered, shaved and from the blocks) for the 500 in the pool, but have made it in the tail end of the first pro packs at both 70.3's I raced this year. Additionally, the ability to surge hard at the start, find good feet, and recover is IMO underutilized by alot of athletes, Pro and AG alike. Guys can swim circles around me in the pool for 30x100's off the 1:20, but I can consistently make the front group with a 2:05 first 200m and settling into a smooth rhythm from there. More triathletes need to work on their 50-200m sprint speed.

a 5:25 converts to a 4:45 for the 400scm. ie 2:22 per 200. It really does not correlate with a 2:05 standalone 200, let alone the first 200 of a 1900 swim.

something is off in your data.

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I made no assertions contrary to your analysis. Absolutely the #1 predictor of open water speed is pool speed. Which is why I didn't compare a 7:30 swimmer to a 5:00 swimmer. That would be dumb.

edited to add - I see a subsequent poster sorta took what I had written to imply pool times were not relevant. I certainly do not believe that, which is precisely why I used two closely matched swimmers in the 1st place.

Pool speed is your ticket to the game. Open water skill determines if you get to play.

I wouldn't go so far. There is a strong correlation between OW and pool times, but there are other significant factors. Significant factors which can neutralize or reverse small pool speed differentials. Nothing however will put a 7:00 swimmer out of the pool before a 5:00 swimmer (or even a 6:00 swimmer in all likelihood).

If you are a 16:30 road 5k runner, you are going to beat any 18:00+ runner on any cross country course. A cross country aficionado with 17:00 palmares might give you a run for your money, but we need to remember that pool / open water or road / track / cross country, we are primarily dealing with the same sports.

I swam with a guy in masters swimming that swam 50 seconds for 100 SCY. Guy was more of a sprinter. Was just a pool swimmer.

-Guy smoked me in practice. At the time I was swimming around 13 flat for 1000scy.

-I did an open water race with him that was a mile and came out of the water just ahead of him. The whole race I sat on someone's feet and didn't have to sight much.

-drafting and not having to sight every 6 strokes makes a big difference

100 yard times don't really mean that much on their own, especially if you are comparing a drop dead sprinters times to distance swims

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+1 more.

My N=1: as a purely pool swimmer who swam on teams from the age of about 6 through start of college, at seventeen, I could throw down a mid four minute 500 SCY in a pool, yet routinely got smoked in Open Water swims by guys from my team that were many minutes slower than me in a pool when I did Junior Lifeguards with them.

Fast forward six or seven years to one I had been an ocean lifeguard for several seasons, and my pool times sucked. Like 545-600 /500 SCY, yet my open water swim times had dropped by a huge amount, as that was all I did for workouts.

Point is that Open Water Swimming is an entirely different animal. You need to learn to sight, need to learn it or deal with chop, swell, wing, and if you have a wetsuit on, you don't have to worry about keeping your legs up. I don't think the kick factors in anywhere near as much. And there's also the group dynamics of the pack, drafting, Etc.

I think there's almost zero correlation. Yes, a decent swimmer will be okay at both, but a great pool summer does not necessarily mean a great Open Water swimmer.

Yes and you might find that if you continue to get faster in the pool that it may not translate to open water as well. But at the end of the day chop wood, carry water, and move in the right direction with your swim. Do it in chunks. Do 10x100 on the 115 and that will get you a 12:30 SCY even if touch and go.

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I hit a 12:20 scy and was doing 12x100 in 1:20 coming in 1:15. Was adding 2 100s a week building to 20. Have to try 10x100 in 1:15.

You're faster with no rest than with a short rest between 100's?

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Believe it or not there are two types of swims now in triathlon, even though they might be the same distance. You asked about 70.3 swims, those are of the more mild version like ironman distance racing. It is a long day out there and people will reflect that effort in the swim, perhaps giving up a little sooner or just not drilling the front as hard.

In short course non draft or ITU a different story. Guys actually make the front pack(almost everyone in the race does if you define pack as being on someones feet connected to the front), but they actually don't make front pack in reality. If you are 20th or below in line there is a very good chance you are dropped on the bike, which could just be like 15 seconds. I long distance racing like Kona for example, the lead pack a couple years ago came out between 48 flat and 49 low, like 35 guys in that minute. None of them were dropped and could move quickly to the front of the race if they had a mind to. A minute down in ITU and you are 3rd pack, even though your line was connected all the way to the front.

So I think front pack times for long distance racing are a little more lenient than some have posted here, probably some high 5 minute swimmers in that lead group at ironman racing. Probably not Kona, more like a 5;30 there because no wetsuit and the dynamic of the race these days. If you were Lance's speed of 5;08, you should have no problem making lead groups(which he did of course) unless you are just terrible in OW.

Jordan was about a 5;20 or just under swimmer and he could never make the lead group, and he hardly had any drop-off going up to a 1000 or even 5000. He could hold 1;07+ pace for a 5000, which probably half the lead group in Hawaii cannot do, but there he would be 4 minutes behind those guys.

But as Dave and others have said, we are talking about the pointy end of the swim race, so everyone is quite proficient in the pool and it just becomes degrees of how good you translate that. I don't think I was ever better than a 5;30 during my career for 500SCY, yet I routinely swam 50 flat to 51 for a dozen years in Hawaii on the old course(2;30 minutes longer than the one they use today) Mark Allen would not have been much faster as well Greg Welch or Mike Pigg. Just very tenacious dudes who would not lose the feet in front from the gun, that is just a whole different race in itself, with different talents required..

I could swim on 1:15. Guessing I'd come in on 1:12 1-1:13 I'd be hammering it. On 1:20 it's a solid effort.

Lots of good information shared

Kevin Ryan here. I'm a consistent mid-pack pro, but I'm always in the front pack out of the water. I can't speak for what the others can do, but I'll give you a look into what I can do.

I think if you held a gun to my head mid-season, I MIGHT be able to go under 5:05 500 SCY. Probably closer to 5:10. I try to keep my swim fitness at a point where I'm always about 1 week of hard swim training (only) from going about 5:00. In my experience, there is not a need to ever have to be faster than that in a typical 70.3.

You may or may not find it interesting, but I don't find 1000y times to be that relevant. After the first 200m or so, the swim really settles down. If I'm able to have a good reaction and a clean start, getting clear of the scrum quickly makes the rest of the swim a lot smoother. So, I make a point to max it out over the first 200m or so, then slot in with some of the other good swimmers. If I can get 3rd or 4th in line, the last 1200m or so turns into ketchup-stroke with a 2-beat kick. So, as far as training goes, some of the more specific prep work I do (read: Brandon Marsh makes me do) is a max 50 or 100 with short rest right into 3-400 @ aerobic threshold to simulate the start. The cumulative aerobic fitness from the rest of the gazillion hours of training is enough to cover the fitness for the remainder of the swim. Full disclosure though, I was a distance swimmer, so that helps things!

Sorry to add to this so late, but had it flagged and had been meaning to chime in. Not sure if you want the perspective of a MOP/BOP pro swimmer, but figured it could be of use to someone.


Haven't done any 1000yd/meter test, have done the same test set over the past 6 years. Main set of 3x500 meters with 5mins rest between. No swim background, adult onset swimmer and started "swimming" when I was 22, back in 2008. Unfortunately don't have any times from back then.
----------------------------------------------------
2011- 8:09, 8:20, 8:07
2012- 7:34, 7:45
2014- 7:13,7:27,7:22
2017- 6:40, 6:55, 6:55
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2010 Total Yards / Avg. 94,600 / 1.8k/wk
2011 Total Yards / Avg. 260,600 / 5k/wk
2012 Total Yards / Avg. 287,000 / 5.5k/wk
2013 Total Yards / Avg. 375,000 / 7.2k/wk
2014 Total Yards / Avg. 415,000 / 7.9k/wk
2015 Total Yards / Avg. 608,000 / 11.7k/wk
2016 Total Yards / Avg. 712,000 / 13.7k/wk
2017 should be ~15k a week.


Some race data:
Aug '17- Qujing 70.3 -2:43 to lead pack
Aug '17- Cebu 70.3 ~ -6:30 to lead pack (rough swim / current / non wetsuit)
Jun '17- Japan 70.3 -2:47 to leader
May '17- Vietnam 70.3 -3:08 to leader (non wetsuit)
Apr '17- Liuzhou 70.3 -2:18 to leader
Nov '16- Xiamen 70.3 -8:10 to Amberger / ~6:00 to chase pack (non wetsuit / current)
Oct '16- Hefei 70.3 -3:45 to leader
Sept '16 70.3 Worlds - 4:32 to Amberger
Jan '16 Dubai 70.3- 2:59 to Frodo (shortened swim / non wetsuit)
(Data pulled from http://www.obstri.com, that site is amazing if you haven't checked it out)


What I have found for me is small fields don't typically suit me well for the swim. Anything with rough water, or against the current is even worse. Non wetsuit or wetsuit hasn't been a major factor, I have had some decent non wetsuit swims. But when things get rough, and their is a current that is when my weakness really shows. The progression is there in the pool, and the distance has been ramped up over the years, but we have done it pretty slowly and luckily with that no injuries. But still the The swim is just getting faster and faster with the amount of ITU athletes coming over to 70.3, and I believe it is only going to get faster.


Unfortunately I have not lived somewhere that has a swim group that I can consistently swim with, but when I do get consistent time in with a group I can tell a big difference, so hoping with being back in the US for a few months in the near future I can spend more time in a group swim environment and that will give another boost.


Yes, I know I need to swim more......................

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-Brad Williams
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