cartsman wrote:
I really hope that's the case. I'm still struggling to figure out how we get past the phase where there are both humans and self-driving cars sharing the roads. Seems to me that the humans will simply game the computers to the extent that in some cases they'll be practically immobilised. E.g. in heavy urban traffic where everybody is fighting for every inch of space and there are pedestrians, cyclists and motorbikes weaving through the traffic as well, I don't see how a self-driving car can cope while also having safety parameters that will be acceptable. I can absolutely see how they'll work fine in free-moving freeways (they're pretty much there already), or even in fairly free-moving suburban areas, just not in really heavy traffic.
There is a junction near me (right hand turn joining a road with 2 lanes going each way) where at busy times it's practically impossible to get out without being a bit of a dick. E.g. inching forward until you're sticking out enough that somebody takes pity on you and moves over into the far lane to let you in, or just gunning it into a gap that's not really big enough, and then waving a hand to apologise to the driver behind. There's also an art to it - if I'm going to gun it into a gap, I'll be looking at the driver who I'm about to piss off, and I'll be making a judgement call on a whole bunch of factors. Some a computer could deal with - is he or she cruising along, or are they accelerating to try and close that small gap down to nothing? Some are much harder than that - is he or she paying attention to the road, is there anything to indicate that the driver is likely to be a complete asshole who tailgates me for the next 5 miles or worse, and even doing calcs on how expensive and heavy their car is compared to mine if it turns out they're checking their email and they crash into me!
In a world of every car being self-driving these issues all go away (apart from pedestrian and cyclist interactions with cars), since you can establish standard protocols for filtering, assigning priority at junctions, etc so that it all flows smoothly. I'm just struggling to see how the transitional phase works. Maybe I'm overthinking it - we'll start out with cars with both a self-driving and human option, with the human taking over when things get too busy. Once cars with a self-driving option hit critical mass and the majority of miles are self-driving, and the benefits are starting to be seen, then we'll move to banning humans from driving completely (that's going to be an interesting debate/fight!). Assuming it takes another 5+ years for cars to have fully fledged self-driving capability, then at least another 10 years before they take over on the roads (probably longer, some people will fight this every step of the way), then I'm guessing it may be 20 years or more until we have cars that are totally designed to be self-driving with no human controls. Which is a shame as that's where the real benefits come in for me - designing a car entirely around passengers, and not drivers, will be awesome.
I remember reading a story about the early days of the auto. There was a town with two cars and of course they collided...
The transition won't be seamless but think about all the drunks that kill and injure people, then add all the other accidents to that list. I believe that self-driving cars will be safer because they will be programmed not to exceed the speed limit, to drive slower in bad weather and maybe if shut off all together if the going gets to dangerous in the eyes of your computer. They will also have cameras on them that record everything around them, meaning should an accident occur the video should help law enforcement and juries decide who is really at fault. That could save millions.
I don't know when the reality of self-driving cars will happen. I do know that if they were safe I would want one today.
"The great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do."