The communist government on mainland China has always considered Taiwan to be a rebellious province, but hasn't had the military strength -- especially in the PLAN (People's Liberation Army Navy) -- to conduct both an amphibious invasion operation and simultaneously fend off sea and air attacks from the US Navy and Air Force along with other allies of Taiwan. However, it looks like China is ahead of schedule on what it calls the "2020 Plan," which calls for the reincorporation of Taiwan by the year 2020. Such an action on the part of the Chinese may be the flashpoint for the very hot conflict that will quickly become World War III.
"For too long in our hallowed halls of government, academia, and media we have been told, “Don’t worry. China takes the long view and would rather kick the can down the road than confront a dispute head on.” That belief has been the accepted conventional wisdom for the past 40 years, but the falseness of this view now is becoming incontrovertible.
Understanding this reality is critical for the U.S. military—and the U.S. Navy in particular—when it comes to how and when Taiwan will be attacked from the Chinese mainland. The question no longer is a theoretical, open-ended affair; President Xi’s words in Zhurihe do not stand alone as an empty proclamation. Instead, they are a reminder of the continuity of Chinese leaders’ devotion to the reunification of the motherland, and when it comes to reunification, Taiwan stands at the top of the list of unrestored territories.
One should not forget that in 2013, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported that China’s leaders had recommitted themselves to “continue the 2020 Plan,” whereby they would be able to “build and deploy a complete operational capability to use force against Taiwan by that year.” By implication, these leaders believe that by 2020, the PLA also will be able to fend off U.S. forces and thus be able to successfully invade Taiwan.
As such, President Xi’s Zhurihe speech can and should be interpreted as certifying that the PLA (all Chinese military forces) has achieved the capability to “safeguard China’s national sovereignty”—two years ahead of schedule.
So, what does this mean strategically?"
Interesting scenario in the piece. I'd just add that since China apparently believes it's a-okay for North Korea to have nukes, then maybe Taiwan should have them as well? It's a thought.
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017-10/now-hear-this%E2%80%94-clock-ticking-china-decade-concern-has-begun
"Politics is just show business for ugly people."
"For too long in our hallowed halls of government, academia, and media we have been told, “Don’t worry. China takes the long view and would rather kick the can down the road than confront a dispute head on.” That belief has been the accepted conventional wisdom for the past 40 years, but the falseness of this view now is becoming incontrovertible.
Understanding this reality is critical for the U.S. military—and the U.S. Navy in particular—when it comes to how and when Taiwan will be attacked from the Chinese mainland. The question no longer is a theoretical, open-ended affair; President Xi’s words in Zhurihe do not stand alone as an empty proclamation. Instead, they are a reminder of the continuity of Chinese leaders’ devotion to the reunification of the motherland, and when it comes to reunification, Taiwan stands at the top of the list of unrestored territories.
One should not forget that in 2013, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported that China’s leaders had recommitted themselves to “continue the 2020 Plan,” whereby they would be able to “build and deploy a complete operational capability to use force against Taiwan by that year.” By implication, these leaders believe that by 2020, the PLA also will be able to fend off U.S. forces and thus be able to successfully invade Taiwan.
As such, President Xi’s Zhurihe speech can and should be interpreted as certifying that the PLA (all Chinese military forces) has achieved the capability to “safeguard China’s national sovereignty”—two years ahead of schedule.
So, what does this mean strategically?"
Interesting scenario in the piece. I'd just add that since China apparently believes it's a-okay for North Korea to have nukes, then maybe Taiwan should have them as well? It's a thought.
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017-10/now-hear-this%E2%80%94-clock-ticking-china-decade-concern-has-begun
"Politics is just show business for ugly people."
Last edited by:
big kahuna: Oct 19, 17 9:00