Sorry I couldnt resist:

1. Basically if you want to win this race, you have to hope your name is Patrick Lange, you are good in swimming and biking, but can run like a cheetah in hot humid climate. If it's not, you need to figure out your best strategy for second and hope Patrick blows up.
   (Sorry I had to - Patrick was faster than anyone ever before on Kona IM course. Also Jan paid dearly last year for biking hard and suffered the last few miles. Biking hard this year for sure was also a reason to blow up in the run for Jan. Where I still guess it was due to his new bike position for the main part.)
2. Gomez wants to go long distance and is planning for it - stay tuned (thats my last info). We still have to see if he can transport his speed to long distances.
   

Dont get me wrong even on your last version: I completly understand you. As well as the reasoning behind it.

Yet you forget two things with Lange, which made him imho the more likely winner ahead of Jan.

1. physical endurance fitness: Id take a wager, that Lange's VO, VO2 max are > Frodeno's. That lad just has long distance in his body - all over. After all, this is endurance sports and not just swim, bike, run - we tend to forget that. The ability to deliver steady performance even after 7 hours and being in control wins the race. Andy Raelert learned that lesson, Jan Frodeno learned it too in 2016 even though he won (I am sure he suffered way more than expected on the second half of the run)
2. efficiency: he complains about the pain he felt, that he wanted to exit the race. Yet fact is - he still had steam left on the last 15 miles. Hell he even went full gas for sub 6:00 splits. So in fact Lange was in control of the race from start to finish, simply since he had enough steam and used it wisely. LS had also enough steam, but he used it less wisely - so he became 2nd. McNamee still lacks some steam and didnt use it as perfectly as Lange - so he became 3rd. Thats how I see the race.
   

what we of course forget is how hard it is to win the race as defendng champ with all obligations
and how much harder it is to win 3 times in a row . its wasnt even plain sailing for ryf who is in a lucky position to be ( or at least so far) a level above everybody.
I agree frodeno has not shown that he can hold the speed in the 2nd half of the marathon ,yet my money would be on frodo and sanders above lange ( see first sentence) for next year . And as a full package i still rate frodeno slighty higher than lange. interestingly enough lange got droped in the uphil section ( which was not the place he had planned to get dropped ie on the downhill)

I have to say i was suprised about frodenos tactics. Cant quite understand why he dd not start besides amberger in the swim. and then swimming side by side with his trainings partner rather than changing the lead was not the best tactics either in my mind. he could save energy riding a steady speed with amberger at the start of bike.
At the same time he is a pro pro and he will be back next year and in my mind has a good chance to win and gomes will need at least one year .

overall since we are talking efficney ...only amberger seemd to be holding a really good line in the swim .and i think it was the 2nd year in a row where frodo was a bit of course ( last year more towards the end i think)

ps I also think that frodo was a tiny bit too light and 1-2 kg more would not hurt.

It will be another great race next year for sure as the deepth will onlly get deeper and with boecherer the race would have prob been even more interesting as i think he would have been capable to hold sanders into t2

I enjoy how we apparently have a similar mindset but come to different conclusions. Contrary to you, I doubt Frodeno can enter T2 ahead of Lange and keep Lange from passing him on the run in Kona (of course suggested both are healthy, everything else went well yada yada yada).

Reason: Frodeno probably can run in the same league as Lange, but can't perform in heat and humidity as goood as Lange. Apart from that I do consider passing other athletes as something like "free energy packets". Running and seeing the next in front getting closer step by step adds an energy surge for free - enabling you to forget some pain - almost like a video game. McNamee and Lange had the luxury of a lot of energy packets on their way to the finish line. Frodeno trying to lead asap in the run doesnt have that. In my thinking he even looses step by step when in front. This becomes even worse should he get messages from the team that Sanders McNamee or Lange are closeing in. Then again Frodeno must lead the race in the run asap, since Sanders might be running a 2:45 or lower. An alternative would be Frodeno in "Lange style", but thats just a copy and we all know that a copy is worse than the original.

Dead end for Frodeno - thats why I dont see him finish upfront Lange in case both have a good day.

Brooks

His gate was "normal" (for him) for a large part of the race ... BUT, the more fatigued he got the more pronounced it became.

There are some bio-mechanical deficiencies I would think need to be addressed, that I am surprised have not been addressed earlier (but that is Lionel) ... i can speculate (educated speculation) toward the source of them that I believe can have a positive effect on both bike & run.

Oddly enough he commented that his form breaking down was due to hydration and electrolytes being off ... not sure I can agree with that theory

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Dave Latourette
http://www.TTENation.com

i guess its that close between sanders , lange , frodeno its very tiny details we wont know before the race.
btw I did put 10 euro on 19 for 1 for Lange ;-) no point putting ten euro on frodo or sanders at poor stakes.

Interesting...I think Sanders learned his lesson and Will dial in the formula to take down an “Uber-runner”...

In fact, I’ll go one step further. If Lange tries to use that same strategy next year, he won’t win because others will adjust their strategy


This is what happens year over year.

For a time, the race in Kona unfolds as a set piece - then some disruption happens, as we had this year, and the game changes.

Next year's race will be different again, because now we are into this disruptive period.

Think about out for 2 - 3 years, There were minimal to no real attacks off the front, and the rear-guard chasers, never really had a chance. ALL the top placers came from the group of 20 - 25 that formed up after about the first 30 - 40 minutes of the bike. This legal group would stay together more or less all the way to Hawi.

Now you have the likes of Amberger swimming and cycling well off the front, and being joined by others. And you have a rear-guard chase group with fire-power, Keinle/Sanders et al . . that is making the front of the race well BEFORE they get to Hawi. Indeed, the chase group, just rolled on through and TOOK OVER the front of the race!!

It forced the likes of Frodeno, and Lange to really start to access where they were at, and what they had to do. As well as other contenders in the group - all kinds of questions start to come up now about what you/they will do in the situation?

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

I thought some time about a better answer than my last. So here a different approach.

First about your last remark:


I disagree with your first part.

• Yes, Andy had an awesome day and performed well in bike and run.
• Yes, he finished 7th and not 4th.
• No, imho he did not do worse, but achieved almost the maximum possible for that day.
  

Considering the people who crossed the finish line before him, I believe he could not do much better. He might have crossed the finish line before Terenzo Bozzone, but imho thats about it. So 6th or 7th is a great result. With Jan Frodeno (without his stop), 7th or 8th would have been the maximum.

A faster swim would not have changed anything - if at all for the worse. Of course, those are my five Cents.



More athletes enter T2 within a decreasing timeframe compared to previous years. So more athletes have a viable chance for the podium in case of a great run. As a result all depends on the run performance by chasing competitors down or by staying ahead of competitiors. While a 2:55 - 2:58 run would suffice after great bike splits to enter the podium in previous years, it wasnt sufficient in this year and will be increasingly less sufficient the next few years. Of course leaders still might DNF or blow up during the run, still there are too many great runners entering T2 too close to the leaders in T2.

It is becoming even tougher with James Cunnama (who will probably show a better run performance next year) and esspecially Patrik Nilsson (who imho can also drop a 2:42 next year on the run). Others like David McNamee and Jan Frodeno are to consider also, where I assume a better run performance by David next year (if the conditions fit to him).

To all other athletes the question arises: How can I beat them to enter the podium? The options and my comments:

1. Faster bike split: Considering Wurf/Sanders, I doubt it can be faster without totally blowing the run. As a result a faster bike split is not an option. Also since most athletes are good to very good in Aero, friction and bike training overall, the effort needed for better bike splits is too high - unreasonable. Its just the magic of drag, where the effort needed from 31 to 32 miles/hour is a whole lot less than the effort needed from 41 - 42 miles/hour on the bike.
   
2. Faster swim: Josh Amberger was apparently an all-out swim. A lot of effort for a lead, which crumbles to dust on the bike part.
3. Efficient swim/bike: Considering the previous points, it is an option to reduce the effort needed to enter T2 close to the leaders thus enabling the athlete to start the run in best form possible. So its crucial to spend minimal effort on the swim and on the bike, while still entering T2 close to the leaders.
   
4. Efficient run: Considering 1.-3. it is crucial to deliver an efficient run aka the ability to maintain a high run speed at an minmal effort. In running there is a lot, that can go wrong costing unneccessary energy aka exhausting the athlete too fast or dropping the atheltes speed.

I consider 3. and 4. the best shots on where and how athletes can improve to compete for the podium. A good run in the 2:55 range probably wont cut it anymore... no matter how well the athlete biked.