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Re: The 15 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods in America [Sanuk] [ In reply to ]
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You've been renting all this time?!? I had no idea, Ouch....
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Re: The 15 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods in America [oldandslow] [ In reply to ]
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I like your brand of unbridled pessimism here.

My argument isn't that Detroit is great and safe overall. It's no utopia but it's no dystopia either as it's stereotypes imply. It obviously has its pockets that you want and need to stay away from. It obviously was wrecked as the auto industry changed and it didn't have a diverse enough economy to absorb that loss. It's full of blight as jobs and then humans left. It had to be essentially taken over by the state due to mismanagement and political corruption, which had it in financial ruin. But despite all of that, the city seems to be past its worst and is slowly and is reliant on the heart and strength that once had it thriving. It's rebuilding a block at a time, becoming cool again. It's attracting young professionals, starting to grow again. The population is 1/3 of what it was at its heyday, and its growth is slow (projected to grow by 60,000 people over the next 20 years) which should allow it to both continue improving as it is (like the way abandoned homes are being razed to get rid of blight and the crime that goes with them and how new businesses are moving in and improving with big projects like the stadiums & arenas) and to allow it to rebuild the foundation for sustainability. It's going to take time, but it's happening and the results are evident to those who visit. But like any big city, there are places you'll still never want to go.



oldandslow wrote:
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These things take time, but the evolution of Motown is apparent enough that the doom & gloom stories are farcical.


Is there any market where I can short the recovery? No doom and gloom, but depressed urban centers are the last to recover and first to collapse due to economic cycles, and we have had an seven year recovery. Our present economic policies, impact on mobility and the basic geography (see previous thread), makes any long-term transformation doubtful.
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Re: The 15 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods in America [oldandslow] [ In reply to ]
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You've been renting all this time?!? I had no idea, Ouch....

I've only lived in Vancouver for the past 19 months.

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Re: The 15 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods in America [oldandslow] [ In reply to ]
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oldandslow wrote:
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These things take time, but the evolution of Motown is apparent enough that the doom & gloom stories are farcical.



Is there any market where I can short the recovery? No doom and gloom, but depressed urban centers are the last to recover and first to collapse due to economic cycles, and we have had an seven year recovery. Our present economic policies, impact on mobility and the basic geography (see previous thread), makes any long-term transformation doubtful.


Not sure you want to short "ultra distressed."
If something is close to worthless anyway there is limited upside in an unleveraged short.
Whereas anything other than complete disaster would work against you.

Check out this house it is as nice as mine....
https://www.zillow.com/...-62206/5253641_zpid/
Last edited by: Velocibuddha: Oct 6, 17 14:09
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Re: The 15 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods in America [Velocibuddha] [ In reply to ]
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Or this house.
I could buy 3 of these houses for the price of my crap house.
And I don't even live somewhere expensive.



https://www.zillow.com/...-62223/5237392_zpid/
Last edited by: Velocibuddha: Oct 6, 17 14:34
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Re: The 15 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods in America [MidwestRoadie] [ In reply to ]
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MidwestRoadie wrote:
I like your brand of unbridled pessimism here.

My argument isn't that Detroit is great and safe overall. It's no utopia but it's no dystopia either as it's stereotypes imply. It obviously has its pockets that you want and need to stay away from. It obviously was wrecked as the auto industry changed and it didn't have a diverse enough economy to absorb that loss. It's full of blight as jobs and then humans left. It had to be essentially taken over by the state due to mismanagement and political corruption, which had it in financial ruin. But despite all of that, the city seems to be past its worst and is slowly and is reliant on the heart and strength that once had it thriving. It's rebuilding a block at a time, becoming cool again. It's attracting young professionals, starting to grow again. The population is 1/3 of what it was at its heyday, and its growth is slow (projected to grow by 60,000 people over the next 20 years) which should allow it to both continue improving as it is (like the way abandoned homes are being razed to get rid of blight and the crime that goes with them and how new businesses are moving in and improving with big projects like the stadiums & arenas) and to allow it to rebuild the foundation for sustainability. It's going to take time, but it's happening and the results are evident to those who visit. But like any big city, there are places you'll still never want to go. These things take time, but the evolution of Motown is apparent enough that the doom & gloom stories are farcical.


I was born and raised in Detroit and I've lived around it for additional more years. I've seen it at its heights and I've seen it at its lows. It has its pockets of improvement, no doubt. And hopefully it'll come all the way back (though I don't see it ever rebounding to 1.5 million people or more, which is what it had the year I was born).

But I don't go anywhere in Detroit to conduct business without being seriously tooled up, like Desert Eagle point-five-oh tooled up, plus at least one backup piece tooled up. I'm one of the guys pushing for constitutional -- anytime, anyplace -- carry, in fact. And if I didn't think I would immediately be shot by the cops I'd also probably be walking around with an AR-15 at sling arms. ;-)

True enough, Motown's not an urban dystopia, though it came close to being just that not so long ago. But neither is it the gleaming jewel along the banks of the Detroit River that it once was, as it worked to put the world on wheels (as they say around here).

Sadly, it's now more often a place you were once from, except for those hipster types -- who seem to love the city center, Midtown, Corktown and New Center areas. Maybe enough of them will move in and gentrify their neighborhoods where it'll make a difference. But I don't know how that can occur in any decently short amount of time, all the efforts of Dan Gilbert, Peter Karmanos, and the Illitches (and maybe Tom Gores) not withstanding.

There's a huge number of people in Motown who simply don't have the skills, nor the inclination, to compete for the kind of jobs that are a hallmark of the digital millennium and the gig economy. I get the sense that most of them are sitting on their porch steps, waiting for all those blue collar auto factory jobs to come back, complete with fat UAW contracts that pay $25 per hour or more.

I don't see that happening anytime soon, either, sad to say.

"Politics is just show business for ugly people."
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Re: The 15 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods in America [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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Think abou the zilliow links I posted.
Think about what the Canuck's are saying about the price of real estate in Vancouver (or the prices in CA).

There cannot be that much disparity in the price of housing forever.
People can tele-commute.

Vancouver, Seattle, San Francisco, Denver - are significantly better than Detroit (or crappy suburban St Louis).

But not 10 x better.
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Re: The 15 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods in America [Velocibuddha] [ In reply to ]
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Velocibuddha wrote:
Think abou the zilliow links I posted.
Think about what the Canuck's are saying about the price of real estate in Vancouver (or the prices in CA).

There cannot be that much disparity in the price of housing forever.
People can tele-commute.

Vancouver, Seattle, San Francisco, Denver - are significantly better than Detroit (or crappy suburban St Louis).

But not 10 x better.

This is what $100,000 can buy you in Lincoln Park, MI, a Downriver (Detroit) suburb several miles north of my own Downriver small town:

817 Lincoln Ave, Lincoln Park, MI 48146 | MLS #217085621 - Zillow

It's south of Southfield Road, which adds to its value (north of Southfield Road, and that part of Lincoln Park is starting to become more like Detroit), and the neighborhood's not bad and the city services are decent, to be honest. Zillow says it's actually worth about $91,000 (though its Zestimates are often off). Someone will probably be able to purchase that home for roughly $95,000. A few years ago, maybe as low as $60,000.

You couldn't find even a rathole for a hundred grand in any of the four cities you named above.

"Politics is just show business for ugly people."
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Re: The 15 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods in America [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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This is simply not how real estate works. Why doesn't anybody here get that?
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Re: The 15 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods in America [oldandslow] [ In reply to ]
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oldandslow wrote:
This is simply not how real estate works. Why doesn't anybody here get that?

I think everyone understands.
Supply versus Demand.

Detroit and St. Louis have no jobs, high crime, bad weather.
Very, very little demand.

The Bay Area is the opposite in every way. Lots of good jobs, good weather, less crime. Very high demand.
I would pay a premium for the Bay Area!

But would I pay 10 x as much vs St Louis (even more once you consider interest and taxes)?

That is one hell of premium (or discount) depending on which way you see it).

I would go for the discount all things being equal.

But markets can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent....
So I am not betting on Detroit or St Louis or the Bay Area either for that matter.

Still, I really like discounts.
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Re: The 15 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods in America [oldandslow] [ In reply to ]
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oldandslow wrote:
This is simply not how real estate works. Why doesn't anybody here get that?

I'm still a licensed associate real estate broker and I have many articles on real estate in your San Francisco Chronicle Homeguides online real estate section, sir, and most deal with California and Bay Area real estate. So I know how real estate works. :-)

"Politics is just show business for ugly people."
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Re: The 15 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods in America [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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Sadly, it's now more often a place you were once from, except for those hipster types -- who seem to love the city center, Midtown, Corktown and New Center areas. Maybe enough of them will move in and gentrify their neighborhoods where it'll make a difference....
There's a huge number of people in Motown who simply don't have the skills, nor the inclination, to compete for the kind of jobs that are a hallmark of the digital millennium and the gig economy. I get the sense that most of them are sitting on their porch steps, waiting for all those blue collar auto factory jobs to come back, complete with fat UAW contracts that pay $25 per hour or more.

Exactly. The actual human and financial capital fled the city, and continues to escape the city as folks move up. It is not a dystopia by any means, but it cannot significantly change when the entire economy is set up to reward migration.
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Re: The 15 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods in America [Velocibuddha] [ In reply to ]
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Folks buy into those areas for entirely different reasons and have vastly different financial considerations. People who purchase in hugely distressed neighborhoods do so almost purely as a short-term financial investment ("bet") that the area has hit bottom, with the additional hope that it might be rentable (although that is unlikely). Folks who buy in wealthy areas USUALLY want to live there. This is not to say that the home isn't also an investment, it is just that it is not solely an investment, and the approach to valuing it is very different. Of course, prices have become highly speculative in the richest areas and will probalby fluctuate wildly over the next decade. 7% historical appreciation is by no means guaranteed (although it's been fun while it has lasted ;).
Last edited by: oldandslow: Oct 6, 17 16:57
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Re: The 15 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods in America [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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Lived in Detroit from 1996-2000. Had 900,000 people then. We thought it was on its way back then, but the culture is hard to get along with. Our house which we sold for $140k (nicest house we ever owned BTW) when we left was only worth 50k a few years later if you could even sell it. In contrast a house in Nashville that we sold for 101k in 1994 is now worth 400k. Detroit will again be too late to the party when it comes to economic recovery.
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Re: The 15 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods in America [Sanuk] [ In reply to ]
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Sanuk wrote:
I'm leaving Vancouver and moving back to Ontario and one of the main reasons is housing prices. I'd much rather live here but the idea of buying a house with a yard is a fantasy.

Location, location, location mate.

For a detached home in Vancouver, if you can find one, you would pay a minimum of $1.8 million. The only way to get cheaper would involve a long commute so to have a home and yard, you have to spend 2 hours a day in the car which would prevent you from enjoying your home and yard.

The other option is a condo but there's no way I'd spend $1 million to live in a condo. The condos down in the Vancouver harbor sit empty but you can't buy one because they are predominantly owned by foreigners (they are in the names of residents but the money behind them is foreign).

I've lost faith that things will change so time to move to a small town.



Victoria is a relative bargin. All the benefits of Vancouver (minus the size), half the price.

My friend just sold a 12 year old bachelor condo just south of downtown Vancouver for $650,000. He can't believe someone would pay that much and not even get a bedroom.

Long Chile was a silly place.
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Re: The 15 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods in America [Velocibuddha] [ In reply to ]
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Vancouver, Seattle, San Francisco, Denver - are significantly better than Detroit (or crappy suburban St Louis).


But not 10 x better.


I'd certainly pay 10x more to live in Vancouver or Seattle than suburban St. Louis or Detroit...
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Re: The 15 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods in America [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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The neighborhood listed for Rockford isn't even the worst neighborhood. Not by a long shot.
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