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Any actuaries out there? Pension partial lump sum now or 2018?
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I'm potentially terminating employment and leaving with a defined pension benefit. I have the option to take a partial lump sum. I will be doing that, as I am departing from a dying industry. I have little reason to believe the pension fund will still be solvent down the line (and PBGC benefits are s#*t).

I've been in the weeds regarding benefit calculations. My plan states that the interest rates from October in the year prior to the year the benefit commences are used to calculate the present value of the lump sum. If I terminate before Dec of this year, the interest rates from Oct. 2016 will be used. Those are lower than the rates from the last several months. If I terminate Dec 2017 or later, interest rates from Oct. 2017 will be used. Presumably those will be higher, resulting in a lower present value.

On the other hand, as best I can tell, the new mortality tables kick in for 2018 present valuations. Those add about two years life. I could also probably add another 2-4 months to my accrued benefit.

So am I better off terminating before or after Dec? From what I can tell, the present value calculation is highly sensitive to interest rates, so I'm thinking before. On the other hand, I'm going on what I've been able to teach myself the last month--which is not nearly enough.

I'm also interested in any referrals to an actuary who can double check the estimates from my pension office. I've already identified multiple errors. That has led to revisions in the estimate that have increased my monthly benefit by about 10% and the lump sum payment by 8 -10%.

Thanks!

No coasting in running and no crying in baseball
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Re: Any actuaries out there? Pension partial lump sum now or 2018? [Tri3] [ In reply to ]
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Tri3 wrote:
I'm potentially terminating employment and leaving with a defined pension benefit. I have the option to take a partial lump sum. I will be doing that, as I am departing from a dying industry. I have little reason to believe the pension fund will still be solvent down the line (and PBGC benefits are s#*t).

I've been in the weeds regarding benefit calculations. My plan states that the interest rates from October in the year prior to the year the benefit commences are used to calculate the present value of the lump sum. If I terminate before Dec of this year, the interest rates from Oct. 2016 will be used. Those are lower than the rates from the last several months. If I terminate Dec 2017 or later, interest rates from Oct. 2017 will be used. Presumably those will be higher, resulting in a lower present value.

On the other hand, as best I can tell, the new mortality tables kick in for 2018 present valuations. Those add about two years life. I could also probably add another 2-4 months to my accrued benefit.

So am I better off terminating before or after Dec? From what I can tell, the present value calculation is highly sensitive to interest rates, so I'm thinking before. On the other hand, I'm going on what I've been able to teach myself the last month--which is not nearly enough.

I'm also interested in any referrals to an actuary who can double check the estimates from my pension office. I've already identified multiple errors. That has led to revisions in the estimate that have increased my monthly benefit by about 10% and the lump sum payment by 8 -10%.

Thanks!

I am a pension actuary. PM me.
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Re: Any actuaries out there? Pension partial lump sum now or 2018? [Tri3] [ In reply to ]
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Aren't the updated rates out now? I think we loaded them on our systems already. Our 2018 lump sum estimates are coming in lower for the most part in the samples I've seen. You're correct that present value calcs are highly dependent on interest rates and to a lesser extent, age and mortality. Also it's good that you're double checking the work done by your pension administrator. Pensions are more subject to errors than a 401k plan would be since usually there isn't a balance and the service, pay, and other factors in the calculation have to all be recorded correctly which they often aren't. Also the plan rules have to be interpreted correctly especially if you're in a unique situation like early retirement or similar.

Not an actuary just work on plan design and strategy.
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Re: Any actuaries out there? Pension partial lump sum now or 2018? [jkuo] [ In reply to ]
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Thanks for your input.

Our plan uses the IRS Minimum Present Value Segment Rates from the October (2016) prior to the current plan year (Jan. 1-Dec. 31 2017) to calculate present value for lump sum distributions. The first segment rate in Oct. 2016 was 1.57. There's been a steady upward trend since that time. Most recently published was 1.93 first segment rate for Aug. 2017. That's why I was thinking it might be worth terminating before end of Nov. so that I could start the annuity and partial lump sum in Dec, using the Oct. 16 segment rates.

No coasting in running and no crying in baseball
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Re: Any actuaries out there? Pension partial lump sum now or 2018? [Tri3] [ In reply to ]
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I want to say our plans use August rates which we recently loaded so our 2018 lump sums are known. But the trend in interest rates is definitely upward. It's lead to some uncomfortable calls for our call center as participants don't understand why their lump sums are dropping when they run estimates. They never look at the normal form annuity benefit and it can be difficult to explain how lump sums work.

Good luck, I can appreciate it's a difficult decision to make as you're essentially trying to predict the future.
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Re: Any actuaries out there? Pension partial lump sum now or 2018? [jkuo] [ In reply to ]
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Yes, I am continually surprised at how little attention people pay to details of this important matter.

No coasting in running and no crying in baseball
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