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Berlin Marathon - Kipchoge vs Bekele vs Kipsang
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This weekend the road race of the century is going down! The worlds 3 top marathoners will toe the line in Berlin, all of them gunning for a new wr.
Kipchoge is the favorite coming in to the race, after a 2:03:05 in London last year which is usually a slower course than Berlin together with the highly controversial sub2 run. He is super consistent in marathons and has outkicked Bekele and El G once in 03. He famously told his competitors during the oly marathon "Don't worry, i'm not going yet".
Bekele is the undisputed king of track, but has had mixed success during his rr career. Last year in Berlin he fell slightly short of the wr running 2:03:03 claiming he wasn’t in perfect shape. Since then he’s had a dnf in Berlin after getting trampled and then came second in London to Wanjiru in 2:05:57. Has been known for his killer kick, though haters say it's gone.
Kipsang is the former wr holder and has run sub 2:04 4 times, he lost to Bekele last year in Berlin but now has his sights on the win.
All three are getting older, Kipsang and Bekele are 35 and Kipchoge is 32 (at least claims to be, damn he looks old!) meaning they do not have many more races to go.
All three have had some great training leading up to the race, Kipchoges agent claimed he ran a 40k run at 2:08 pace at altitude on dirt with regular trainers.
Bekele says he believes he could run 2:01:30!!
The pacers for the race are also epic; E.Mutai, Biwott, Kiptanui, G.Mutai and Chebet. Which means that among the pacers are 3 sub 2:04 guys and 2 sub 2:05. They are targeting a 60:50 half which is just crazy and definitely uncharted territory.
Looks like weather is going to be okay but not perfect, 13 at start going up to 14/15 but gonna feel like 16/18 due to humidity.
I think the race could end up going a few ways, if all three are together with a mile to go my money is on Bekele, but Kipchoge will likely try to make his move before that. Kipsang is the underdog but is still of course a real contender and if Bekele/Kipchoge go away on a crazy pace with a bunch of surges I can see him hanging back and slowly wheeling everyone in.
With the stacked field of runners and pacers, I do believe the record is going down, and it could very well be with a good chunk. Kipchoge learned the value of pack aerodynamics during the sub2 event and will likely stay in the middle/back of the pack as much as possible. If they all conserve energy this way I can see a low 2:02 finish.
So, who do you got for the win? Any ballsy predictions?
I'm gonna go for Bekele for the win in 2:02:07 with Kipchoge 2nd also under wr in around 2:02:20 and Kipsang right around 2:03

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: Berlin Marathon - Kipchoge vs Bekele vs Kipsang [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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Kipchoge 2:01:45 - I hope he decides to "go" this weekend and push for the actual sub 2 (without exploding) - it'll be interesting to see it unfold, especially with those pacers!


Is there a live stream link available for this weekend?
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Re: Berlin Marathon - Kipchoge vs Bekele vs Kipsang [nogluten] [ In reply to ]
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 FloTrack is doing a live streaming, but I think that's with a membership.

Should be a great race to follow!

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Re: Berlin Marathon - Kipchoge vs Bekele vs Kipsang [nogluten] [ In reply to ]
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nogluten wrote:
Kipchoge 2:01:45 - I hope he decides to "go" this weekend and push for the actual sub 2 (without exploding) - it'll be interesting to see it unfold, especially with those pacers!


Is there a live stream link available for this weekend?
They will not be going for sub 2, pretty sure they are all aware that this currently isn't possible under non-controlled environments, but 60:50 half pace shows that they are at least hoping for sub 2:02. Flotrack will stream the race but you have to be a premium member, otherwise I think it depends on which country your in, Eurosport, BBC 2 will also stream.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: Berlin Marathon - Kipchoge vs Bekele vs Kipsang [nogluten] [ In reply to ]
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in Canada, CBC.ca has a live stream starting at 3:15am, Quebec time. I may have to get up early to see the last part of the race. CBC also has a recap at 2:00pm.

run well, run happy
george
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Re: Berlin Marathon - Kipchoge vs Bekele vs Kipsang [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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This looks good. Tempted to get a flotrack membership so I can watch. With that many good pacers I think sub 2:02 is a good possibility. Does Kipchoge's participation in Nike's sub-2 project help or hurt him? I'm guessing he will wear the shoes they developed. I hope Bekele has a good race to make things interesting. His marathon career has been so hot and cold

Matt
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Re: Berlin Marathon - Kipchoge vs Bekele vs Kipsang [nogluten] [ In reply to ]
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They are televising it live start to finish in the states on NBCSN. Starts at 3 AM Eastern.
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Re: Berlin Marathon - Kipchoge vs Bekele vs Kipsang [Pun_Times] [ In reply to ]
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Pun_Times wrote:
This looks good. Tempted to get a flotrack membership so I can watch. With that many good pacers I think sub 2:02 is a good possibility. Does Kipchoge's participation in Nike's sub-2 project help or hurt him? I'm guessing he will wear the shoes they developed. I hope Bekele has a good race to make things interesting. His marathon career has been so hot and cold
I'm betting that the sub2 project did loads for his confidence. Most of the gain from the project came from perfect pacing and efficient nutrition, since there will be many good pacers at the race up until 30k (which is when he started to drop from the pacers in Monza) I believe he believes sub 2:02 is possible.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: Berlin Marathon - Kipchoge vs Bekele vs Kipsang [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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Now we've got som e smacktalk going! Kipsang says he will be going for 2:02:10-2:02:20 and thinks he also would have run 2:00:25 in Monza.
Eliud is quoted saying "Wilson is a politician. They are good at speaking. He even ran for a seat in the Kenyan parliament, but was not elected. We will see what happens on September 24th. I won’t decide until the last moment how fast I will start out. But I can say this: I want the world record”
We also have Yuta Shitara from Japan who just last week set a national record in the hm with 60:17 who vows to go out with the leaders in Berlin for his second marathon. His first marathon he split 61:55-67:32 which was just 30s above his current hm pr. Can't wait till sunday!

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: Berlin Marathon - Kipchoge vs Bekele vs Kipsang [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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The race is on and the pace is fast!! 14:28 first 5k, way ahead of wr pace. Shitara is ~50m behind leaders just going for it!
Update: it’s started to rain again, looking like a tough day for a wr

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
Last edited by: oscaro: Sep 24, 17 0:41
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Re: Berlin Marathon - Kipchoge vs Bekele vs Kipsang [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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oscaro wrote:
The race is on and the pace is fast!! 14:28 first 5k, way ahead of wr pace. Shitara is ~50m behind leaders just going for it!
Update: it’s started to rain again, looking like a tough day for a wr

After falling behind wr pace they are back on it. 61:28 half split, looking good for Bekele so far.
Minutes after posting this Bekele got dropped! Now 35s behind which seems like too much to gain back. Kipchoge and Kipsang looking like they’re out for a Sunday jog. As a bonus, there’s an English runner with a 67 min half pr who’s on pace for sub 2:04!!

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
Last edited by: oscaro: Sep 24, 17 1:34
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Re: Berlin Marathon - Kipchoge vs Bekele vs Kipsang [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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Not sure if anyone is interested but with 10 min left it looks like Kipchoge will take the win for Adola! Kipsang has dropped out, Bekele a min back. Wr is not going down but will be a fast time, especially considering the conditions. Adolas first marathon btw

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
Last edited by: oscaro: Sep 24, 17 2:13
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Re: Berlin Marathon - Kipchoge vs Bekele vs Kipsang [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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Kipchoge wins in 2:03:34 and Adola in second in 2:03:47, what an amazing marathon debut!
Bekele also dropped out around 35k.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
Last edited by: oscaro: Sep 24, 17 2:26
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Re: Berlin Marathon - Kipchoge vs Bekele vs Kipsang [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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oscaro wrote:
Kipchoge wins in 2:03:34 and Adola in second in 2:03:47, what an amazing marathon debut!
Bekele also dropped out around 35k.

Hey thanks and sorry for not participating in this thread. I was very keen to see what would happen after all the banter on the Nike sub 2 threads that we all had. What were the conditions like in Berlin today? It looks like the temps were good, but was there rain?
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Re: Berlin Marathon - Kipchoge vs Bekele vs Kipsang [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Temperature was okay, however there was quite a bit of rain and 98% humidity. I’d reccon that they lost quite a bit of time because of the wet asphalt. Think Kipchoge would have broken the wr otherwise. There were also extra aid stations as that was one of the things they realized was beneficial during the sub2 attempt, seemed like one of the pacers was handing kipchoge the water bottles so he didn’t have to slow down.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
Last edited by: oscaro: Sep 24, 17 6:44
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Re: Berlin Marathon - Kipchoge vs Bekele vs Kipsang [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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For general discussion. Not directed specifically at your post.

On one hand I understand the podium or bust mentality. We see it from the Pro racers in triathlon too. It's a long season. But, is there a lack in sportsmanship to dropping out?

It's not like throwing in the towel in boxing to prevent permanent brain damage. That said, if your having a bad day, finishing could impact training and racing schedules weeks out...

I also can liken it to Ezekiel Elliot (Dallas Cowboys, RB) quitting on a play last week; and the beating he took from football fans and the media.

I guess I see it both ways...

Curious how others view it???
Last edited by: SBRinSD: Sep 24, 17 7:33
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Re: Berlin Marathon - Kipchoge vs Bekele vs Kipsang [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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Was it weird to see the wheelchair racers take the blue line and force the elite men to run wide? The runners move at a less erratic pace so there seemed to be a bit of passing back and forth. To break the record I guess ideally would run the shortest line unimpeded and undistracted

Don't get me wrong everyone is great athletes and deserves the shortest course. it probably wasn't ideal for the elite wheelchair athletes navigating around the runners either
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Re: Berlin Marathon - Kipchoge vs Bekele vs Kipsang [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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oscaro wrote:
Kipchoge wins in 2:03:34 and Adola in second in 2:03:47, what an amazing marathon debut!
Bekele also dropped out around 35k.

I was watching online as well before heading out for my long run. I was really impressed by the way Kipchoge held his pace when Adola started accelerating at around 35-36k. He kind of had a sly smirk on his face a few times and slowly brought him back around 40k and then dropped him with about 1.5k to go. Very impressive. True master.

What was up with Adola not running the blue line for quite awhile? Inexperience?
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Re: Berlin Marathon - Kipchoge vs Bekele vs Kipsang [lacticturkey] [ In reply to ]
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Thought it was weird as well, and likely cost a few seconds. Last year when Bekele was 6s from the record one realizes that small time penalties add up

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: Berlin Marathon - Kipchoge vs Bekele vs Kipsang [logella] [ In reply to ]
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logella wrote:
oscaro wrote:
Kipchoge wins in 2:03:34 and Adola in second in 2:03:47, what an amazing marathon debut!
Bekele also dropped out around 35k.

I was watching online as well before heading out for my long run. I was really impressed by the way Kipchoge held his pace when Adola started accelerating at around 35-36k. He kind of had a sly smirk on his face a few times and slowly brought him back around 40k and then dropped him with about 1.5k to go. Very impressive. True master.

What was up with Adola not running the blue line for quite awhile? Inexperience?
I think the smirk you often see on Kipchoges face is actually him grimacing. You saw it a lot during the last 5k in Monza as well. Have to admit though that there was a moment when I thought Adola would bring it home!
Also noticed that, perhaps inexperience or he was just having a hard time thinking about anything other than right foot, left foot....

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: Berlin Marathon - Kipchoge vs Bekele vs Kipsang [logella] [ In reply to ]
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logella wrote:
What was up with Adola not running the blue line for quite awhile? Inexperience?

He was locked in on the lead vehicle with clock on top. Should have been following the blue line but pretty clearly was following the vehicle.

I don't know that Adola ever "surged". They both slowed pretty dramatically the last 7 km. Even when Adola was pulling away the km splits were slipping. Kipchoge didn't really claw back so much as Adola crashed and burned the last 3km.
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