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Testing when unfit as an indicator of potential performance when fit?
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Is there any means of testing and developing a potential prediction of performance?

I am 42, have been training for 9 weeks after 14 months of nothing.

I have some running numbers, some bike power numbers and swimming.

I have lost 19 lbs in 9 weeks - give or take 0.5 lbs day to day.

I have a further 30 to go to get to my weight at 28.

If for example - and these are not my numbers - i could swim 400 free in 6 minutes, my current ftp were 230-240 and my 5k were 25 mins but my 1 mile was 6 to 6.30 mins. Is there a way of predicting what my potential might be. How do you know when you have got close to your limits. I appreciate i am not close only 9 weeks in but i am curious about determining what i might be able to do.
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Re: Testing when unfit as an indicator of potential performance when fit? [Andrewmc] [ In reply to ]
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We seem to be in a similar boat. I haven't tested my power much because I've been riding my roadie, but have logged a lot (for me) of running. What is your current weight? I would be ecstatic if I could pull off a 6 to 6.30 mile. I hit the wall at 215 and have dropped to 198 to 200...pretty happy.

Good luck. I personally have gained a total of 50 pounds since my rail think says days of 160 to 165.
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Re: Testing when unfit as an indicator of potential performance when fit? [littlefoot] [ In reply to ]
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I was 94-5 kg on july 9th.

I was 84 kg yesterday morning

Target is 68-70.

This will be the second time in 3.5 years i have gone from 95 kg to 70 kg which is completely idiotic.
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Re: Testing when unfit as an indicator of potential performance when fit? [Andrewmc] [ In reply to ]
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Andrewmc wrote:
Is there any means of testing and developing a potential prediction of performance?

I am 42, have been training for 9 weeks after 14 months of nothing.

I have some running numbers, some bike power numbers and swimming.

I have lost 19 lbs in 9 weeks - give or take 0.5 lbs day to day.

I have a further 30 to go to get to my weight at 28.

If for example - and these are not my numbers - i could swim 400 free in 6 minutes, my current ftp were 230-240 and my 5k were 25 mins but my 1 mile was 6 to 6.30 mins. Is there a way of predicting what my potential might be. How do you know when you have got close to your limits. I appreciate i am not close only 9 weeks in but i am curious about determining what i might be able to do.

My experience was that each pound of bodyweight was worth about 2 seconds per mile running on a hilly course. I ran the same hilly half-marathon 4 years in a row. Basically the same training each year and presumably fitness level, but I gained weight over time and my time were slower pretty much close to a minute per pound for the half marathon.

Generally speaking after about 6 months of serious training you'll probably be fairly close to your potential (most research studies show VO2max peaks after 3 to 6 months of training). Not that you won't get faster but huge gains probably aren't on the books. This has been my experience too observing newbies coming into endurance sport, people who are going to be fast are pretty fast within a relatively short amount of time with serious training.
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